德意志银行-土耳其展望2020

Internationaltopi[e-mail][e-mail]rankfurtamMainGermanyInternet:@db.comFax:[phone]ManagingDirectorNorbertWalterJanuary12,2005CurrentIssuesTurkey2020:oncourseforconvergenceTurkeyhasinthepastsufferedfromhighlevelsofmacroeconomicinstability.Overthelasttenyearsaverageeconomicgrowthhasbeenmodest.Sustainedeconomicreformfollowingthe2000-01economiccrisishashoweverimprovedtheoutlookforeconomicstabilityandhighermedium-termeconomicgrowthsignificantly.ThecontinuationofmacroeconomicdisciplineandstructuralreformislikelytobedrivenbytheprospectofEUaccession.TheagreementreachedbetweentheEUandTurkeyregardingthestartofaccessionnegotiationsinOctober2005isthefirststepinthatdirection.Risksofsetbacksstemfrombothsides,however.ThisstudyistodepictplausiblescenariosfortheTurkisheconomyinthemediumtolongterm,ratherthanpredictatwhatpointintimeaccessionwillactuallytakeplace.Inourbaselinescenario,medium-termrealGDPgrowthofagood4%onaverageoverthenext10to15yearsisrealistic,accordingtoDBResearch’sproprietarylong-termgrowthmodel(Formel-G).Whilethecontinuationofeconomicreformsappearstobethemostlikelyscenario,itisnot,however,aforegoneconclusion.Domesticpoliticalcleavages,setbacksontheIMFfrontandgeo-politicaldevelopmentscouldyetunderminetheupbeateconomicoutlook.Wepresenttwodownsidescenariostoaccountforthispossibility.IfTurkeyrealisesitsgrowthpotentialoverthecomingdecade,itwillbeaverydifferentcountryandaverydifferenteconomybythetimeitaccedestotheEU.True,itwillstillbeoneofthepoorestEUeconomiesonapercapitabasisandwillhavethelargestagriculturalsector.ButTurkey’slevelofeconomicdevelopmentwillbecomparable,inrelativeterms,tothelevelsreachedbyPolandin2004.ThepoliticalandeconomicimpactofEUconvergencewillbeunambiguouslypositive,asTurkeywillbenefitfromcontinuedEU-supervisedreforms,increasedeconomicstabilityandhigherforeigninvestmentflows.Thebankingsectorinparticularstandstobenefitfromenhancedstabilityandhighereconomicgrowth,andislikelytoexperienceincreasedconsolidationandforeignparticipation.Author:MarkusJaeger([e-mail])CurrentIssuesJanuary12,20052EconomicsAttheturnofthe19thcentury,theOttomanEmpirewascalledthe“sickmanofEurope”.Today,modernTurkey,thestatethatemergedfromtheruinsoftheOttomanEmpireinthewakeofWWI,hasoneofEurope’smostdynamiceconomiesandsocieties.ReformshaveledtoaprofoundtransformationoftheTurkisheconomysincethemostrecentcrisisin2000-01.Thankstoacombinationoffavourabledemographictrends,theprospectofcontinuedeconomicreformandeventualEUmembership,TurkeyisonthevergeofbecomingoneofEurope’smostattractivemarkets1.ThispredictionappearstobesomewhatatoddswithTurkey’seconomicperformanceoverthepastdecade.Between1994and2003,Turkisheconomicgrowthaveragedamere2.8%(seechart)andtheeconomyexperiencedseveralseverecrises.Also,Turkeyisstillarelativelypooreconomyandalargeshareofitspopulationisemployedintheagriculturalsector.Turkey’sGDPpercapitaincomeislow,butitseconomiccatch-uppotentialisconsiderable.Measuredatmarketprices,TurkishGDPpercapitawasUSD3,400in2003,alevelcomparabletothelikesofBulgariaandRomania,butfarbelowtheCzechRepublicandHungarywithroughlyUSD8,300(seechart).However,amoreaccuratemeasureofpercapitawealthisGDPpercapitameasuredonpurchasingpowerparity(PPP)basis.HereTurkey’spercapitaincomeamountstoaroundUSD6,700,again,comparabletothecurrentEUaccessioncandidates(Bulgaria,Romania),butonlyataround20-25%ofthebiggestEUmember,Germany.Alowpercapitaincomesuggestssubstantialroomfor“economiccatch-up”,meaningconsiderableroomtoimproveproductivitythroughtechnologicalinnovationandinvestment.TheaimofthispaperistoassesswhattheTurkisheconomywilllooklikein10to15years.Combiningaqualitativescenarioanalysisframeworkwithaproprietaryquantitativeforecastingmodel,weexaminethepoliticalfactorslikelytoaffecteconomicpolicyandstability,analysethestructuralfactorsunderpinningTurkey’sgrowthpotentialandestimateeconomicgrowthunderdifferentpoliticalscenarios.Wethenstudytheimpactofourbaselinescenarioonproductionpatternsandanalyselikelyimplicationsforthebankingsector.I.ThepoliticaleconomyofeconomicgrowthandstabilityTurkeyisatacrossroadsandinapositiontoputtheeconomyonthepathtosustainablegrowth.Structuralfactorspointtowardsaconsiderablemedium-termeconomicgrowthpotential.Whetherthispotentialcanberealisedwillcruciallydependoneconomicandpoliticalstabilityandcontinuedreform.Overthepastdecade,Turkeyhasexperiencedseveraleconomicandfinancialcrises(1994,1999,2001).Thecriseswereprimarilyduetopoliticalinstability,weakregulation,poormacro-managementoracombinationoftheabove.WhatmakesusbelievethatTurkeycanbreakwiththisvolatilepast?Firstofall,despiteTurkey’schronicpoliticalinstability,itspoliticalsystemisnotnecessarilyill-suitedtothesuccessfulimplementationofmacro-policies.ThecentralisedstructureoftheTurkishpoliticalsystem(unicameralparliamentarysystem,centralisedbureaucracy)shouldmakeitpossibletopursue1Forth