罗兰·贝格：中欧和东欧的零售银行(XXXX年资料)

A4rb_standard_band_photo–20100701–donotdeletethistextobject!1VIE-04_RetailbankinginCEE_2011_Zagreb_v4.pptxZagreb,May31,2011SummaryofstudyfindingsRetailbankinginCEE–DebtcollectionintimesofcrisisA4rb_standard_band_photo–20100701–donotdeletethistextobject!Thisdocumentwascreatedforourclient.Theclientisentitledtouseitforitsowninternalpurposes.ItmustnotbepassedontothirdpartiesexceptwiththeexplicitpriorconsentofRolandBergerStrategyConsultants.Thisdocumentisnotcompleteunlesssupportedbytheunderlyingdetailedanalysesandoralpresentation.2VIE-04_RetailbankinginCEE_2011_Zagreb_v4.pptxThisdocumentwascreatedforourclient.Theclientisentitledtouseitforitsowninternalpurposes.ItmustnotbepassedontothirdpartiesexceptwiththeexplicitpriorconsentofRolandBergerStrategyConsultants.Thisdocumentisnotcompleteunlesssupportedbytheunderlyingdetailedanalysesandoralpresentation.©2011RolandBergerStrategyConsultantsContentsPageA.TheGoldRushisover–Recentdevelopments&outlookinCEEretaillending3B.Retaildebtcollectionintimesofcrisis91.Mainpillarsofsuccessfulretaildebtcollection122.Alternativestoowndebtcollection?–Aviewonoutsourcing&debtsale23C.Collectionsafterthecrisis–ConclusionsforCEEbanks28A4rb_standard_band_photo–20100701–donotdeletethistextobject!3VIE-04_RetailbankinginCEE_2011_Zagreb_v4.pptxA.TheGoldRushisover–Recentdevelopments&outlookinCEEretaillendingA4rb_standard_band_photo–20100701–donotdeletethistextobject!4VIE-04_RetailbankinginCEE_2011_Zagreb_v4.pptxAsthefinancialcrisishitCEE,growthinretaillendingdroppeddrastically–Thepre-crisisgoldrushappearstobeoverCEE–HouseholdfinancialliabilitiesgrowthandmortgagesaturationSource:UniCreditResearch;RolandBergerCOMMENTS•In2009,followingyearsofrapidcreditexpansionCEEeconomiessawgrowthinhouseholdlendingdropdramati-cally•Attheheightofthecrisis,growthinsomecountries(e.g.Romania,CIS)eventurnednegative•Lendinggrowthisexpectedtorecoveronlyslowly–PrecrisisgoldrushwithvastlyexpandingretaillendinginCEEseemstobeover18181716186030014222019151260300171616166030016131255542906030011e510e090807063331906030011e310e309080706999974906030011e10e09080706CroatiaCzechRepublicHungaryRomaniaRussiaUkraine1)Mortgage[in%ofGDP]Householdfinancialliabilities[%YoYLC]1)Datareflectstotalloansinsteadofhouseholdfinancialliabilities[growthin%YoY];A4rb_standard_band_photo–20100701–donotdeletethistextobject!5VIE-04_RetailbankinginCEE_2011_Zagreb_v4.pptxWhilecreditmarketsfroze,banksacrossCEEsawNPLratiossoar–DebtcollectionturnedouttobeakeyleverforprofitabilityNon-performingloan(NPL)ratiosdevelopmentinCEE2007-2010e[%ofgrossloans]COMMENTS•InmostCEEcountriesNPLlevelshavedrasticallyincreasedduring2009•Beingfocusedongrowth,debtcollectionoftenwasaratherunimportantareainmanyCEEbankspriortothefinancialcrisis•Suddenlyhowever,soundcollectionpracticeturnedouttobeakeylevertomaintainbank'sprofitability0510152025UkraineRussiaRomaniaPolandHungaryCzechRep.Croatia2010e200920082007CAGR2007-2009+61%+240%+50%+45%+16%+103%+49%Source:UniCredit;DeutscheBankResearch;RolandBergerA4rb_standard_band_photo–20100701–donotdeletethistextobject!6VIE-04_RetailbankinginCEE_2011_Zagreb_v4.pptxMeanwhiletheeconomicsituationstabilized–However,CEEeconomies'growthratesexpectedtofallshortofpre-crisisheightsGDPgrowthdevelopmentinCEEvs.Euroarea[%changep.a.]- 10- 5 0 5 1020142012201020082006-2.9p.p.EUROAREA(AGG.)MajorNon-EUCEE/SEEEconomiesEU2004/7AccessionStatesMajorCEE/SEEEconomies1)Croatia1)CEE/SEEcountriesselected(by2010realGDP):Russia,Poland,CzechRepublic,Romania,Hungary,Ukraine,Slovakia,Croatia,Bulgaria,SerbiaCOMMENTSAfteraverytoughyear2009economicrecoveryisunderwaybutlongtermeconomicgrowthwillremainbelowprecrisislevelsDriversofconvergencestillholdbutareweakerthaninthepast:•Competitiveness(butuncertainglobaloutlookandcompetitionfromAsia)•Capitalinflows(buthighercostofcountryrisk)•Convergenceinstandardsofliving(buthouseholdssectordelaysrecovery)•EUFundsandinfrastructuralprojectsSource:EconomistIntelligenceUnit(EIU);UniCredit;RaiffeisenResearch-May2011;RolandBergerA4rb_standard_band_photo–20100701–donotdeletethistextobject!7VIE-04_RetailbankinginCEE_2011_Zagreb_v4.pptxThesloweddowneconomiescontinuetoexertpressureonloanportfolios–ImportanceofdebtcollectionwillremainhighOutlookofcreditportfolioqualitydevelopmentinCEEBanksexpectationsondevelopmentofdelinquencyrates1)COMMENTS•Asrecoveryseemsslowandgrowthappearstoremainbelowpre-crisislevels,85%ofbanksexpectdelinquenciesintheretailsegmenttofurtherincreaseoratleastremainatthecurrentlyelevatedlevelsintheshortrun(untilsummer2011)•Inthemediumterm(untilsummer2012)banksareslightlymoreoptimistic,however,stilltwothirdsofbanksdonotexpectdelinquencyratestoeaseOutlook:Upcoming12MonthsOutlook:Upcoming24MonthsHigher54%Stable31%Lower15%Lower24%Stable44%Higher32%EveninpostcrisisCEEcollectionwillremainkeylevertooverallbankperformanceSource:Efma&RolandBergerSurvey:RetailBankinginCEE–Debtcollectionintimesofcrisis1)Asofsummer2010A4rb_standard_band_photo–20100701–donotdeletethistextobject!8VIE-04_RetailbankinginCEE_2011_Zagreb_v4.pptx0100200300400500t+4t+3