美国与日本邮政银行体系的战略分析咨询报告

73PostalBankingintheUnitedStatesandJapan:AComparativeAnalysisPostalBankingintheUnitedStatesandJapan:AComparativeAnalysisPatriciaHaganKuwayamaCenteronJapaneseEconomyandBusiness,ColumbiaUniversity,GraduateSchoolofBusinessThispaperbenefitedfromcommentsandsuggestionsbyThomasCargill,BrianGendreau,YuriOkina,HughPatrick,JosephSommer,andJuroTeranishi.KunioOkinaandothercolleaguesprovidedinvaluablehelpandencouragementduringtheauthor’sstayattheInstituteforMonetaryandEconomicStudies.MONETARYANDECONOMICSTUDIES/MAY2000ThispaperanalyzestheexperienceoftheU.S.postalsavingssystem,andcomparesittoJapan’sexperiencewithaviewtoassessingthepastandpotentialfutureroleofthepostalsavingssysteminJapan.Itfindsthatdemandforpostalsavingsdepositsisexplained,inbothcountries,mainlybytwovariables:price(interestdifferentials)andconfidenceinprivatebanks.Geographicalaccessibilityinruralareasisofless,anddiminishing,importance.Itisarguedthatpostalbankingshouldbeviewedasanalternativetopubliclysponsoreddepositinsurance,asameanstoensurehouseholds’accesstosafeandconvenientsavingsandpaymentservices.Accordingly,thereformsundertakeninthenextfewyearsundertheoutlinesetoutbythe1998BasicLawontheReformofCentralGovernmentMinistriesandAgenciesmightbestaimtorestructurepostalsavingsasa“narrowbank,”whoseservicesarepricedtofullyreflectcostsandrisksincurred.Keywords:U.S.postalsavings;Japanesepostalsavings;Depositinsurance;NarrowbankI.IntroductionandSummaryJapanisoneofmanycountriesthatisreconsideringtheroleofitspostalsavingssystemasitpreparesforthefinancialrealitiesofthe21stcentury.Postalbanks,whichwereintroducedinmostindustrialcountriesduringthesecondhalfofthe19thcenturyortheearly20thcentury,aregenerallydeemedtohaveservedusefulpurposesinthepast:theymadedepositandpaymentservicesaccessibletolower-incomeandnon-urbanhouseholds;providedademonstrablysafedepositoutletintimesofuncertaintyaboutprivatebanks;andmayhaveraisedhouseholdsavingsrates,thushelpingtofundbothpublicandprivatecapitalneeds.But,ineverycase,vastchangesthathaveoccurredinmoderneconomies—includingthespreadoftransportationandcommunicationsnetworks,thegrowingcapabilityofprivateintermediariestoprovidefinancialservices,thespreadofdepositinsuranceschemesforprivatebanks,andcentralbanks’abilitytoavoidfinancialpanicswithmonetarypolicy—havecalledintoquestionthecontinuedappropriatenessofthepostalbank’straditionalrole.Japaniswellbehindothercountriesinaddressingthisneedforchange.TheUnitedStatesandCanadaabolishedtheirpostalsavingssystemsover30yearsago,NewZealandandanumberofEuropeancountrieshaveprivatizedtheirsstartinginthe1980sandmostotherEuropeancountrieshavetakenatleastsomestepstoprivatizeorstreamlinetheirpostalbanksinrecentyears.1BeingalaggardgivesJapantheadvantageofrelevantexperiencethatitcanusetoinformitsownfuturechoices,butsofarthediscussionofJapanesepostalsavingsreformhasmadelittlereferencetoforeignexamples.TheUnitedStatesadmittedlyisnottheclosestcomparison:itstarteditspostalsavingssystemlaterthanmost,in1910,andendeditin1966.TheU.S.postalbankwasneverauthorizedtoofferpaymentservices,otherthanthemoneyordersthatpostofficeshadalwayssold,incontrastwithJapanandmanyEuropeancountrieswherethepostofficehaslongbeenamajorproviderofgiroservices.2AndthesizeoftheU.S.postalsavingssystem,evenatitsheightinthe1930sand1940s,neverapproachedthatofJapan.Butevenso,themotivationsforestablishingtheU.S.postalbank,andthepurposesitactuallyservedforseveraldecades,wereessentiallysimilartothoseinJapan.Moreover,theargumentsthatledtoabolitionalsoresemblediscussionnowheardinJapan.Thispapercontendsthatagooddealcanbelearnedfromexaminingtherole—forbetterandforworse—thattheU.S.postalbankplayedinthefirsthalfofthe20thcentury.Ifsomethingcanbelearnedfromthis,mostdistant,comparison,thenthestudyofothercasesmayproveevenmoreusefulforJapan.74MONETARYANDECONOMICSTUDIES/MAY20001.TaiwanandArgentinaannouncedplansforprivatizationin1998.SeeElixmann(1992)fordetailsonindividualEuropeancountries’reforms.BarthandBartholomew(1992)documenttherelatedtrendtowardofficiallysponsoreddepositinsuranceforprivatebanks.NotethattheUnitedStatesandCanadawereamongthefirsttointroducethelatter(in1933and1967,respectively),aswellasthefirsttoabolishpostalsavings(in1966and1968).2.Thistermisusedtomeandirectpaymentstoorfromabankaccount,thatis,withoutrequiringanintermediateexchangeintocash.Severalmainobservationsaredevelopedinthediscussionbelow.First,whilegeographicavailabilityofdepositoryservicestoareasnotservedbyprivatebankswasalwaysaprimejustificationofpostalsavings—intheUnitedStatesaswellasinJapanandEurope—ithasnotprovedtobethemajorsourceofdemandforpostalsavings,evenifitwasimportanttoafewruralcustomers.Fromthestart,theU.S.clienteleofpostalsavingswasconcentratedinurbanareasamongimmigrantsfromsouthernandeasternEurope,agroupthathadthemostreasontoseekthesafetyofpostalsavingsafteritsexperiencewithunreliable“immigrantbanks.”InJapan,aswell,effortstodocumentthespecialrelevanceofpostalsavingstohouseholdsinremoteareashavegenerallyfounditsimportancetobelimited.Andasinmostcountries,thisfactoralsohasdeclin