您好,欢迎访问三七文档
GLOBALEQUITYRESEARCHPLEASEREFERTOBACKCOVERFORIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES.DividendIncreasesNotInsignificantforMortgageandSpecialtyFinanceStocksReviewofDividendYieldsandWhoHastheMostPotentialtoIncreaseDividendsGiventherecent,mostlysubstantial,increasesfromoverhalfofthecompaniesunderourcoverageoverthelasttwoquarters,wewouldexpectthedividendincreasewavetosubsideabit,revertingtowardmorenormalsingle-digitincreases.SomeofthemostlikelycandidatesforcontinuedsignificantincreasesincludeIndyMac,AmericanExpress,andFidelityNational.Inouruniverseofstocks,wehaveonestockyieldingmorethan4%,twobetween3%and4%,andanothersevenbetween2%and3%.TheaverageROEinourgroupis23.4%,whiletheaveragetangibleequitytotangibleassetsratiois15.1%or7.1%excludingthecapital-intensivetitleandmortgageinsurers.Thus,withpayoutratiosaveragingjust24%,plentyofexcessequityandreturnsonequitythatexceedinternallygeneratedassetgrowth,therewouldappeartobeplentyofroomtoraisedividendsinourcoverageuniverse.Partlyinresponsetofavorabletaxlegislation,severalcompaniesunderourcoveragesignificantlyincreasedtheirdividendsinthesecondquarter,includingFidelityNational(up50%),SallieMae(up36%),WashingtonMutual(up33%),AmericanExpress(up25%),andMBNA(up25%).Ofthesefivecompanieswiththebiggestpercentageincrease,SallieMae,WashingtonMutual,andAmericanExpressaretraditionallyregularbuyersoftheirownstockthroughsteadystockrepurchaseprograms.Thedividendincreasescontinuedinthethirdquarter,witha50%increasefromtwoofthethreemortgageinsurersunderourcoverage(MGIC,PMIGroup),a43%increasefromCountrywide,a33%increasefromIndyMac,andan18%increasefromGoldenWest.WithallbutIndyMacstillyieldingbelow1%,thereisstillsignificantroomforfurtherincreasesfromthesehigh-growthcompanies,butwecautionthathigh-growthcompaniestypicallyembracealowpayoutpolicy.Asfortherestofthecompaniesthatwefollow,onlytimewilltelliftheyincreasetheirdividendsinfavorofothermethodsofcapitaldeployment.Companiesthatareunlikelytoincreasetheirdividendsincludehigh-growthcompaniessuchasCapitalOneandCountrywide,andcompaniesintheprocessofrebuildingcapital,suchasProvidianandSovereign.UNITEDSTATESFINANCIALSERVICESMortgage&SpecialtyFinanceSectorViews:MortgageFinance:2-EQUALWEIGHTSpecialtyFinance:1-POSITIVEBruceW.Harting,CFA1.212.526.3007bharting@lehman.comMortgageFinanceJoanneYerman1.212.526.6716jyerman@lehman.comJinZhang,CFA1.212.526.8715jinzhang@lehman.comSpecialtyFinanceJoshuaSteiner,CFA1.212.526.2723josteine@lehman.comNovember18,2003(1)thattheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersreferredtointhisreportand(2)nopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisreport.DividendIncreasesNotInsignificantforMortgageandSpecialtyFinanceStocks2November18,2003TableofContentsIntroduction.....................................................................................................3DividendYield.................................................................................................3CapitalGenerationandUses(AmericanExpressCaseStudy)..................................4ExcessCapital................................................................................................7DividendPayout..............................................................................................9DividendIncreases.........................................................................................11Conclusion...................................................................................................14TableofFiguresFigure1:DividendYieldasofNovember14,2003..............................................4Figure2:AmericanExpressNetIncomeReturnedtoShareholders1995–2001..........5Figure3:FutureEPSGrowthRatesvs.CurrentROEs...............................................6Figure4:ROEs,Payouts,AssetGrowth,ShareRepurchases,andExcessCapital.........7Figure5:TangibleEquitytoTangibleAssets–4Q02–3Q03..................................8Figure6:DividendPayouts4Q02–3Q03Annualized..........................................10Figure7:2003QuarterlyDividendsPayableandPayableGrowthRates.................11Figure8:DividendGrowthRateandNumberofAnnualIncreases–Last5Years......12Figure9:MortgageandSpecialtyFinanceValuationTable...................................15DividendIncreasesNotInsignificantforMortgageandSpecialtyFinanceStocksNovember18,20033IntroductionPartlyinresponsetothefavorabletaxlegislationpassedondividendsinthesecondquarter,severalcompaniesunderourcoveragesignificantlyincreasedtheirdividendsinthesecondandthirdquarters,includingcumulativeincreasesbyIndyMac(up88%),CountrywideFinancial(up51%),FidelityNational(up50%),MGIC(up50%),PMI(up50%),SallieMae(up36%),WashingtonMutual(up35%),AmericanExpress(up25%),andMBNA(up25%).WithallbutIndyMacstillyieldingbelow1%,thereissignificantroomforfurtherincreasesfromthesehighgrowthcompanies,butwepointoutthathighgrowthcompaniestypicallyhavelow
本文标题:银行信贷(1)
链接地址:https://www.777doc.com/doc-252767 .html