Deloitte2005年给AIPC做的落基山脉能源项目评估分析案

U.S.Energy&TheRoleofRockyMountainNaturalGas:CleanDomesticEnergyForaGrowingAmerica(2005)•Thereisnoeconomy,beitnew,oldorevenfuturistic,thatwouldexistwithoutreliable,accessibleandaffordableenergyBasicEnergyFacts•Thereisnoeconomy,beitnew,oldorevenfuturistic,thatwouldexistwithoutreliable,accessibleandaffordableenergyBasicEnergyFacts•Overthepast25yearsU.S.demandforenergyhasincreasedby35%whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17%•Thereisnoeconomy,beitnew,oldorevenfuturistic,thatwouldexistwithoutreliable,accessibleandaffordableenergyBasicEnergyFacts•Weimport14%ofthegasand53%oftheoilweuse•Overthepast25yearsU.S.demandforenergyhasincreasedby35%whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17%PollsdemonstratethattheAmericanpublic:Source:COGAFlowline,Vol.17,#3BasicEnergyFacts1.TakesenergyforgrantedPollsdemonstratethattheAmericanpublic:Source:COGAFlowline,Vol.17,#3BasicEnergyFacts1.Takesenergyforgranted2.NeitherunderstandsnorappreciateshowcheapourenergyisinconstantdollarsorincomparisontootherconsumernationsPollsdemonstratethattheAmericanpublic:Source:COGAFlowline,Vol.17,#3BasicEnergyFacts1.Takesenergyforgranted2.Neitherunderstandsnorappreciateshowcheapourenergyisinconstantdollarsorincomparisontootherconsumernations3.SeemstobelievethemistakennotionthatenergyproductionnecessarilyentailsunacceptableenvironmentalimpactInColoradoabout2,000drillingpermitsareissuedannuallycomparedtoabout50,000housingpermitsSource:COGAFlowline,Vol.17,#3BasicEnergyFactsOILTotalU.S.EnergyConsumptionbyPrimaryEnergySource2001Source:EIAPetroleum39.4%NaturalGas22.8%Coal23.1%Other-3.9%Hydro-2.5%Nuclear-8.4%0204060802001MMbodWorldPetroleumDemand25.9%76.0MMbodSource:EIA•Inthelast5yearstheworldconsumed27billionbarrels/year,buttheindustrydiscoveredonly3billionbarrels/year•Therefore:used135billionbarrelsofoilwhilediscovering15billionbarrelsofoilSource:USGSBasicEnergyFactsWorldTopOilProducingCountriesin20011.U.S.9.0MMbo/d2.Russia8.8MMbo/d3.SaudiArabia8.0MMbo/d4.NorthSea(UK,Norway,Denmark)6.3MMbo/d5.Iran3.7MMbo/d6.Mexico3.6MMbo/d7.China3.3MMbo/d8.Venezuela2.9MMbo/d9.Canada2.8MMbo/d10.Iraq2.4MMbo/dSource:EIAU.S.PetroleumProductsProductionvs.U.S.PetroleumDemand051015202519852001MMbodProduction-25%Demand+24%Source:EIAU.S.CrudeOilProduction&CrudeOilImportsSource:EIA0510152025QuadrillionBtuOilProductionOilImportsTopSuppliersofCrudeOiltoU.S.in20011.SaudiArabia1,611Mbo/d2.Mexico1,394Mbo/d3.Canada1,356Mbo/d4.Venezuela1,291Mbo/d5.Nigeria842Mbo/d6.Iraq795Mbo/dSource:EIANATURALGASTotalU.S.EnergyConsumptionbyPrimaryEnergySource2001Source:EIAPetroleum39.4%NaturalGas22.8%Coal23.1%Other-3.9%Hydro-2.5%Nuclear-8.4%U.S.NaturalGasConsumptionin200122.0TcfSource:Groppe,Long&LittellResidential22%Commercial15%Industrial26%ElectricUtilities26%ChemicalsandMaterials3%Other9%U.S.NaturalGasConsumptionvs.DryProductionSource:EIA010203040506070BcfdConsumptionProductionU.S.ShortfallinProductionvs.ConsumptionSource:EIA01234567891019731977198119851989199319972001BcfdIn2001U.S.consumptionwas6BcfdgreaterthanU.S.production!ProjectedNaturalGasDemandSource:EIA01020304020002005e2010e2015e010203040Tcfperyear•U.S.manufacturingisbasedonaffordableandreliablesuppliesofnaturalgas.•Attheseprices,itisunlikelytheU.S.willattractnewmanufacturingcapital.•Today’sgaspricesareforcingmanufacturerstoconsiderproductionoverseas.Source:IndustrialEnergyConsumersofAmericaELECTRICITY•U.S.highwayfuelmarkettotals11-12MMbopdmakingitthesinglelargestpetroleummarketintheworld•HowevertheenergycontentcreatingKilowattsintheU.S.isalmosttwiceaslargeasthehighwayfuelmarket!Electricity–BasicEnergyFactsBasicEnergyFactsIn2001nearly42%oftheenergyconsumedintheU.S.wasusedtogenerateelectricity.Source:Groppe,Long&LittellU.S.ElectricitySupplybySourcein2001Source:EIANaturalGas16.5%Coal51.5%OtherGaseousFuels-0.5%Geothermal,Solar,Wind-2.1%Petroleum-3.4%Hydro-5.8%Nuclear20.3%•FromendofWWIItostartof2000residentialandcommercialelectricaluseincreased51outof53years•Yetnosignificantnewpowerplantswerebuiltbetween1990and2000BasicEnergyFacts•In2000,PC’sandelectronicsconsumed13%ofournation’senergysupply.By2020,theseusesareexpectedtoconsume25%ofthenation’senergysupply.•40%ofthecountry’selectricityisusedtopowerairconditioners.U.S.ElectricityNetGenerationSource:Groppe,Long&Littell01234BillionKilowattHours1.6%CAGRU.S.ElectricitySupplybySourcein2001Source:EIANaturalGas16.5%Nuclear20.3%Coal51.5%OtherGaseousFuels-0.5%Geothermal,Solar,Wind-2.1%Petroleum-3.4%Hydro–5.8%U.S.HydroelectricPowerProductionSource:EIA0510152025QuadrillionBtu•Overthepast25yearsU.S.demandforenergyhasincreasedby35%whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17%BasicEnergyFactsBasicEnergyFacts•Oil,gasandhydroproductionareflattodown–sowhathasincreasedenergysupply?•Overthepast25yearsU.S.demandforenergyhasincreasedby35%whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17%U.S.ElectricitySupplybySourcein2001Source:EIANaturalGas16.5%Nuclear20.3%Coal51.5%OtherGaseousFuels-0.5%Geothermal,Solar,Wind-2.1%Petroleum-3.4%Hydro-5.8%U.S.NuclearElectricPowerProduction2505101520QuadrillionBtuThreeMileIslandSource:EIAU.S.ElectricitySupplybySourcein2001Source:E