周晓宏-房地产投资项目风险分析论文

华中科技大学本科毕业论文房地产投资项目风险分析学号C201242547专业工程管理姓名周晓宏日期2014年5月15日+Huazhonguniversityofscienceandtechnologyundergraduategraduationthesis.Realestateinvestmentprojectriskanalysis.StudentnumberC201242547ProfessionEngineeringmanagementNameZhouxiaohongDateMay15th,2014摘要房地产投资是我国经济建设的一项重要内容，而其投资又具较大的风险，有效识别、估计、分析风险，降低风险损失，提高房地产投资风险管理效率，已成为当前房地产投资风险管理的重要任务。所以必须对房地产投资风险因素进行识别和分析，才能有效地防范这些风险。作为一种特殊的投资项目，房地产因投资周期长、投资量大、投资的物体具有不可移动性、投资易受政策的影响等特点，很有可能形成投资的周期性、重叠性、累积性风险。历史上持续的过热投资导致的巨大泡沫危机多次出现，在给房地产投资者带来巨大的风险损失的同时，也重创了区域经济乃至国民经济。2002以来，我国房地产投资持续高涨，引发了大量业内人士对其过热的甚至泡沫化的忧虑，部分学者讨论了当下的房地产风险态势、特征与原因，各具见识、各有侧重，本文力图在这样的认识基础上进一步辨析、综合与发展，以更全面，更理性地认识我国房地产投资风险的内容与倾向，并构造测度评价指标体系，为房地产风险防范提供借鉴。首先，对房地产的开发决策、开发前期、项目建设、租售管理四个阶段存在的风险进行了识别；其次，在风险识别的基础上，选择合理的指标，建立房地产投资风险预警体系，并对本市房地产市场情况进行实证预警；再者，在对以往的评价方法如专家评价法、盈亏平衡分析法、敏感性分析法、蒙特卡洛法、模糊综合评价分析法等进行分析说明的基础上，引进基于Matlab软件的人工神经网络模型建立了新的风险评价体系；最后，从风险防范和风险控制两方面提出相应的风险控制对策，以增强企业防范及化解风险的能力，降低风险损失，提高企业的市场竞争力。关键词：房地产投资；投资风险；风险识别;风险评价；风险控制AbstractWiththeconstantexpansionofthesustainedandhealthydevelopmentcfeconomicconstruction,China’realestatemarketsystemismovingintothespecificationstage,therealestateindustryhasenteredavirtuouscycleofcompetitioninthemarket,hasdevelopedIntoanindependentindustry,andgraduallybecomeanationaloneofthepillarindustriesOftheeconomy.However,duetotheimperfectionsoftherealestatemarketmechanisms,asWellasalltheerrorsexistintherealestateinvestmentresearch,coupledwiththerealestateitselfisahighinvestment,highreturn,highriskindustry,howtomoreaccurateRiskidentificationandevaluationofthesericksistheurgentneedtoaddresstheproblemFacedbytherealestateindustry.Therefore,thecurrentrealestateinvestmentriskhasimportantpracticalsignificance.Asaspecialinvestmentprojects，therearemanyfeaturesforrealestatesuchaslonglifecycle，largequantity,immobileandvulnerabletotheimpactofpolicies，Sowhichlikelytoformthecyclical，overlapping，cumulativerisk．Sustainedandoverheatedrealestateinvestmentledtothehugebubblecrisisinthepast，whichhasbroughtenormousriskslosstotherealestateinvestors，andhurtregionaleconomyevennationaleconomy．Since2002therealestateinvestmentofourcountryhaskeptinrising，whichledalargenumberofpeoplebothinsideandoutsidetoworryiftheinvestmentoverheatedevenbubbleburst．Somescholarsdiscussedthesituation，featuresandreasonsofpresentrealestaterisk，whichhavetheirownvisionandfocus．Inthebasisofthesecognition，thistexttrytomakefurtheranalyze，consolidationanddevelopment，inordertoleamthecontentandorientationofrealestateinvestmentrisksmorecomprehensivelyandrationally．Andestablishedriskevaluationsystemtooffersomeadviceintheaspectofrealestateriskpreventionandcontr01．Firstly,authoridentifiedtheriskwhichexistinthefourprocesseswhichincludedecision—making，theearlystageofdevelopment，theprojectconstructionandRentalmanagement．Secondly,basedonidentifyingmainrisksfromfourprocessesofrealestateinvestment，authorchosesomeappropriateindexestodesignriskforecastsystemandforecastedtheEmpiricalrealestatemarketconditionofthiscity．Moreover,basedontheanalysisofPreviousevaluationmethodsuchasexpertevaluation，Break-EvenAnalysis，SensitivityAnalysis，MontocarloandFuzzyComprehensiveEvaluationMethod，authorusedartificialneuralnetworkmodeltoestablishanewriskevaluationsystem．Atlast，onallabove，authoradvocatedaccordingmeasurestocontrolriskfromtheaspectofriskpreventionandriskreduction，inordertoenforcetheenterprises’abilityofavoidingandresolvingrisk，todeclineriskcost，andtoenhanceenterprises’competition．Keywords:realestateinvestment;investmentrisk;riskidentification；Rickevaluation;rickcontrol目录第1章绪论......................................................11.1我国房地产业的发展状态..............................................11.2房地产投资风险分析的概况............................................21.3房地产投资风险分析的必要性..........................................3第2章房地产投资项目基本理论概述.....................................42.1房地产项目投资概述...................................................42.1.1房地产项目投资基本形成......................................................42.1.2房地产项目投资基本特点.......................................................42.2房地产投资的环境.....................................................5第3章房地产投资风险...................................................73.1房地产投资风险概述...................................................73.1.1房地产投资项目常见的风险种类................................................73.1.2房地产投资各阶段的风险.......................................................73.2房地产投资风险特征及其不确定性.......................................83.3房地产投资风险产生的原因..............................................8第4章房地产投资风险管理分析.........................................104.1房地产投资风险管理分析...............................................104.1.1房地产投资风险识别...................................................104.1.2房地产项目投资风险估计和评价..........................................124.2风险识别的方法比较与障碍因素分析....................................164.3房地产各阶段投资风险管理识别及分析...................................164.3.1房地产项目决策阶段投资风险识别及分析........................................174.3.2房地产项目前期工作阶段投资风险识别及分析.....................................174.3.3房地产项目建设阶段投资风险识别及分析.....................................