中国的低碳能源战略展望

中国的低碳能源战略展望中国的低碳能源战略展望ProspectofChina’sLowCarbonProspectofChina’sLow-CarbonEnergyStrategy杜祥琬杜祥琬Prof.DuXiangwanApril17th2009BeijingChinaApril17th,2009Beijing·China主要内容MainContents一、环境与能源密切相关ⅠEnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergyⅠ.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy二、对中国低碳能源战略的思考Ⅱ.DeliberationonChina’sLow-CarbonEnergyStrategy三、结语三、结语Ⅲ.Closure一、环境与能源密切相关一、环境与能源密切相关ⅠⅠ.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy„在中国的总能源中，煤的贡献目前超过70％，这是中国能源结构的特点ygyygy„OfChina’stotalenergy,coalcontributesover70%atpresent,whichcharacterizesChina’senergystructure;„煤的采收和利用总效率约为10％，比世界先进水平低一倍左右；能源浪„煤的采收和利用总效率约为10％，比世界先进水平低倍左右；能源浪费大，单位GDP能耗高（中国GDP占世界总量6％，却消耗了世界31％的煤，7.5％的石油）；„Theoverallefficiencyofexploitationandutilizationofcoalisapp.„Theoverallefficiencyofexploitationandutilizationofcoalisapp.10%,whichisabouthalftheadvancedinternationallevel.Theenergywasteishuge,andenergyconsumptionperunitGDPishigh(ChineseGDPis6%oftheworldtotal,butChinaconsumes31%of(CeseGs6%oteodtota,butCacosues3%otheworld’scoaland7.5%ofoilproduction);一、环境与能源密切相关一、环境与能源密切相关ⅠⅠ.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy„全国CO2排放已达55亿吨/年（虽然人均排放远低于一些发„全国CO2排放已达55亿吨/年（虽然人均排放远低于些发达国家），总GHG排放已居世界之首；„ThenationalCO2emissionhasreachedupto5.5biltons/year(thoughthepercapitaemissionisfarlowerthaninsomedevelopedcountries),andthetotalGHGemissionisalreadyNo.1oftheworld;world;„SO2、COD、NOx等污染物排放量中国居世界榜首（尽管近两年有所下降），SO2达2500万吨/年。全国一亿以上人口呼吸2不到清洁空气；„ChinahasthehighestemissionsofSO2,COD,NOxandotherpollutantsintheworld(thoughdecreaseshavebeenseenoverthepollutantsintheworld(thoughdecreaseshavebeenseenoverthelastcoupleofyears),withSO2emissionupto25miltons/year.Morethan100millionpeoplearenotbreathingcleanairacrossthecountry;一、环境与能源密切相关一、环境与能源密切相关ⅠⅠ.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy„近5年来酸雨强度在南方和北方均有增加趋势全国年均„近5年来，酸雨强度在南方和北方均有增加趋势，全国年均酸雨数和酸雨量与总降水量的比值逐年上升。„Overthelastfiveyears,strengthofacidrainhasincreasedinbothNorthandSouthofChina.Theaverageannualnumberandgamountofacidraintothetotalrainfallhaveclimbedwithyear.酸雨频率5%5%-10%10-25%25-50%50-75%75%全国酸雨发生频率区域分布图全国酸雨发生频率区域分布图一、环境与能源密切相关一、环境与能源密切相关ⅠⅠ.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy„气候变暖趋势明显：据国家气象局公布的全国各城市1951-„气候变暖趋势明显：据国家气象局公布的全国各城市19512000年平均气温的变化，无一例外呈明显上升态势。„Theevidenceofclimatechangeandglobalwarming:OnthebasisofChina’sMeteorologicalDataServiceSystemonclimategychangeduring1951-2000,theaverageannualtemperaturehasshowedobviousascendingtrendindifferentcitiesinChinawithinoexception.一、环境与能源密切相关一、环境与能源密切相关ⅠⅠ.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy◆三十年来中国经济发展的巨大成就举世瞩目但在经济快◆三十年来，中国经济发展的巨大成就举世瞩目。但在经济快速增长的同时，能源需求总量增长过快。本世纪的头几年，能源弹性系数达1.0左右，总能耗从2000年的13亿Tce达到2008弹耗年亿年的26亿Tce。表明：经济增长方式是资源消耗型；◆Inthepast30years,China’soutstandingeconomicachievementshasarousedgreatattentionbytheworld.However,whiletheeconomyrisesrapidly,thetotalenergydemandofthiscountryhasbeenincreasingexcessivelyTheenergyelasticitycountryhasbeenincreasingexcessively.Theenergyelasticitycoefficientreachedsome1.0inthefirstyearsofthiscentury,andthetotalenergyconsumptionincreasedfrom1.3bilTcein2000tothetotalenergyconsumptionincreasedfrom1.3bilTcein2000to2.6bilTcein2008,indicatinganenergy-consumptivetypeofeconomicgrowth;一、环境与能源密切相关一、环境与能源密切相关ⅠⅠ.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy◆中国的压缩性工业化进程带来了复合型环境问题◆中国的压缩性工业化进程带来了复合型环境问题，快速扩张的经济带来巨大的排放总量。表明：经济增长方式是以牺牲环境为代价长方式是以牺牲环境为代价；◆CompressedprocessofChina’sindustrializationbroughtaboutlitliWithftifcomplexenvironmentalissues.Withfastexpansionofeconomycomesgigantictotalemission,indicatinganeconomicgrowthtypeatthesacrificeofenvironmentatthesacrificeofenvironment.◆世界金融危机也给中国带来巨大影响，这对中国即是机遇也是挑战是机遇，也是挑战。◆TheworldwidefinancialcrisishashugeimpactuponChina,whichmeansbothopportunitiesandchallengesforChinawhichmeansbothopportunitiesandchallengesforChina.一、环境与能源密切相关一、环境与能源密切相关ⅠⅠ.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy机遇：实体经济衰退，导致能源资源环境压力减退，为我机遇：实体经济衰退，导致能源、资源、环境压力减退，为我们提供了转变经济发展方式、调整产业结构、淘汰落后生产力实现节能减排的机遇；金融危机重创了一些生产低附加值产，实现节能减排的机遇；金融危机重创了些生产低附加值产品的外向型企业，为企业的转型、升级、创新带来机遇和动力。Opportunities:DeteriorationofrealeconomyleadstodecreasethepressureonenergyresourceDeteriorationofrealeconomyleadstodecreasethepressureonenergy,resourceandenvironment,allowingforachancetotransformoureconomicdevelopmentpattern,adjustindustrialstructure,washoutthebackwardproductivityandmakepossibleforenergsaingandemissionredctionThefinancialcrisisinflictspossibleforenergy-savingandemissionreduction.Thefinancialcrisisinflictsheavylossesonsomeexport-orientedbusinesseswithlowerproductionadded-valueandoffersanopportunityandmotivetotransform,upgradeandinnovate.一、环境与能源密切相关一、环境与能源密切相关ⅠⅠ.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy.EnvironmentiscloselylinkedwithEnergy挑战：能否有效地转变粗放的发展方式不仅是一个挑战，还需防挑战：能否有效地转变粗放的发展方式不仅是个挑战，还需防止急于救市的措施（含投资），不顾环境追求增长带来恶果的风险。必须从国家乃至全球的高度，对经济、能源、环境、科技进险。必须从国家乃至全球的高度，对经济、能源、环境、科技进行统筹，制定应对的综合战略。Challenges:Transformingtheroughdevelopmentpatterneffectivelyismo