台湾百年来农业诱发性

***OSR-ASR200204200242820011227-282…345——67—8910112.3(Y/L)(Y/A)(A/L)Y/L=(Y/A)(A/L)3a(A/L)(Y/A)1920(A/L)1920(A/L)(Y/A)(,1974,2001)3b19701970(Y/L)(Y/A)197012133.HayamiRuttan(1985)()(biologicaltechnologyprogress)(tractor)(HayamiandRuttan,1985)1(2001)19204a4b5a(A/L)(M/L)1920(Y/L)(Y/A)196019701972196024197022319811005b(M/L)19701970141949195119531970(M/L)154a.1901-1942Ho(1966)p.56commercialfertilizer010020030040050060070080019011905190919131917192119251929193319371941/010203040506070%(%)164b.1951-1981CommercialFertilizerChemicalFertilizers%175a.()1901-19411935-37(1901=100)185b()1951-19811965-67(1951=100)194.Binswanger(1974)HayamiandRuttan(1985)Binswanger(1974)(B)HayamiandRuttan(1985)(H-R)4.14.1.1inducedinnovationHicks1932TheoryofWagesHicksBinswangeretal.1978Binswangeretal.1978factorsavingcostsharei()iQ201()iiPiS1dtdSQ⋅==0→⎪⎩⎪⎨⎧iiiiSiP1ii()1observed12isoquantnon-neutralshift24.1.2B(Binswanger(1974))Binswanger(1974)translog(Shin(1980))translog(2)20)(ln21lnlnlnlnYpYCyyiiiygaaa+++=∑∑∑∑++iiyiijjiijPYPPlnlnlnln21ggCPY(2)21(3)∑=ii1a(4)0=∑iyig(5)∑∑∑∑===ijijijijij0ggg(2)(6)∑++=∂∂=∂∂jijyiiiiiPYCPPCPClnlnlnlnggaShephard’slemma(Shephard,1953)jiPCX∂∂=4,3,2,1=∀ii(7)∑++==jijyiiiiiPYCPXSlnlngga(7)(2)(8)∑+++=jijTiyiiiPTYSlnlnggga(9)∑+++=jijDiyiiiPDYSlnlngggaTD(2)(10)∑+=jijiiPSlnga(2)(67)∑∑==ijijij0gg(11))ln(ln)ln(lnKENEKLNLNNPPPPS-+-+=ggaYPPNYKNNNln)ln(lngg+-+(12))ln(ln)ln(lnKELEKLLLLLPPPPS-+-+=ggaYPPLYKNLNln)ln(lngg+-+(13))ln(ln)ln(lnKEEEKLELEEPPPPS-+-+=gga22YPPEYKNENln)ln(lngg+-+NS,LSESNP,LP,EPKPYagShih(1980)4.1.3H-RBinswangeretal.1978translogHayamiandRuttan1985CES3CESLA(F)(M)CES14()()()11t1t1ML1Me1LeZρ-ρ-δρ-δ⎥⎦⎤⎢⎣⎡α-+α=15()()()22t2t1FA2Fe1AeZρ-ρ-δρ-δ⎥⎦⎤⎢⎣⎡β-+β=1ρ2ραβiδrateoffactoraugmentationlinearhomogeneous23CES16()()()[]ρ-ρ-ρ-γ-+γ=121Z1ZQγρAllenpartialelasticityofsubstitution17σ=σ=σ=σ=σMFAMLFLA18()σ-σ+σ=σ11LMS119()σ-σ+σ=σ22AFS1()1111+ρ=σ()1122+ρ=σ()11+ρ=σ1S2S1Z2Z20()t1PPln111ln11LMlnML11ML11δ-δ+ρρ+⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛+ρ+⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛α-α+ρ-=⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛21()t1PPln111ln11AFlnFA22FA22δ-δ+ρρ+⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛+ρ+⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛β-β+ρ-=⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛22⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛+ρ+⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛γ-γ+ρ-=⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛2112PPln111ln11ZZlnLPAPMPFP1P2P1Z2Z()11/ZMPLPPML+=24HayamiandRuttan1985i23()()⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛-⋅-+⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛--=∑∑≠≠iijjijijjiijjijijjiiEEEESPPPPSSS&&&&&ss1123price-inducedfactorsubstitutionbiasedtechnicalchange4B24tbaseiitSBp⋅=,()itb1+-baseiS,24itb23ititBibasetitS′basebaseiS,baseit(Factorusingbias,FUB)25baseiitSS,′×1004.2Shih1980Chen(1987)Shih1980Chen(1987)6a6b256c6dM/LF/ABH-R4.2.11901-19421.H-R⋅-⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛+=⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛-)220.9()236.7()379.6(0126.0ln3443.02603.0lntPPLMML,7246.02=R⋅+⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛-=⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛-)313.15()123.4()074.1(1276.0ln3907.12066.0lntPPAFFA,8583.02=R⋅+⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛-=⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛-)036.23(21)697.5()212.2(121308.0ln3619.12858.0lntPPZZ,9356.02=R266b6b6c6d272.BA0.64551MM0.01853MM-9.65472MA-0.02483L0.98471AY-0.08524ML0.46731LM0.01187F0.71404LY0.05282MF-0.12758LL-0.06727M-1.34426FY0.14736MA-0.08761LF0.04806A0.20711MY-0.11493LL-0.11171LA0.00734AL-0.16625AT0.02572LF0.54004FM-0.00324AF-0.03303LT-0.02227LA0.02588FL0.32521AM-0.00783FT-0.00139FF-2.63199FF-0.23425LL0.19905MT-0.00206FA-0.30954FA-0.08772LF-0.02465AA0.05006AM-0.00223LM-0.00815MM-0.24523AL0.01559FF0.06023ML0.28141AF-0.02755FM-0.00255MF-0.01135AA0.014194.2.21951-19811.H-R⋅-⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛+-=⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛--)862502.0()044138.8()08154.1(008039.0ln973129.0059453.0lntPPLMML,973555.02=R⋅+⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛-=⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛-)55152.16()52828.2()333456.6(04661.0ln152718.0158946.0lntPPAFFA,972657.02=R⋅-⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛+=⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛-)511.28(21)758188.2()568847.2(12120105.0ln125081.005921.0lntPPZZ,998746.02=R282.BA0.25316MM-0.00569MM-47.19115MA-1.62731L0.49201AT-0.00634ML2.44248LM0.06204F0.17540LT-0.00117MF15.22587LL-0.36670M0.07943FT0.00816MA-5.74209LF0.07404A0.08779MT-0.00065LL-0.60893LA0.23061AL-0.03179LF0.83195FM0.38674AF-0.00747LA0.81374FL0.50100AM-0.04853FF-12.21576FF-1.08720LL0.01873FA0.70384FA0.19947LF-0.00901AA-1.43552AM-0.14585LM0.02206MM-1.19866AL0.49003FF-0.01568ML1.47086AF0.06264FM0.03216MF1.35510AA-0.40683295.5.11901-19425RFP25FUB100/1901,×′iitSS1.H-R7aH-RFUBRFPFUBFUB19061906-19361936-1942FUBRFPHayamiandRuttan(1985195)expost(,2001)30()7080901001101201301401501601701902190619101914191819221926193019341938Bias(index1902=100)708090100110120130140150160170(index1902=100)7080901001101201301401902190619101914191819221926193019341938Bias(index1902=100)708090100110120130140(index1902=100)1020304050607080901001101201902190619101914191819221926193019341938Bias(index1902=100)102030405060708090100110120(index1902=100)02000400060008000100001200014000160001902190619101914191819221926193019341938Bias(index1902=100)7090110130150170(index1902=100)7a(FUB)(RFP)H-R(FUB)(RFP)31607080901001101201902190619101914191819221926193019341938Bias60708090100110120607080901001101201301401501601902190619101914191819221926193019341938Bias6070809010011012013014015016020304050607080901001101201902190619101914191819221926193019341938Bias2030405060708090100110120()7b.(FUB)(RFP)B(FUB)(RFP)-100001000200030004000500060001902190619101914191819221926193019341938Bias020406080100120140160180322.B7b()5.21951-19811.H-R8a(1951-1980)()19652.B8bFUB336.FUB24