众包众筹的深度介绍

众包CROWDSOURCING韦俊龙目录什么是众包众包的特点众包的优势什么是众包定义：一个公司或机构把过去由员工执行的工作任务，以自由自愿的形式外包给非特定的（而且通常是大型的）大众网络的做法。众包的任务通常由个人来承担，但如果涉及到需要多人协作完成的任务，也有可能以依靠开源的个体生产的形式出现模式：发包方、接包方和中介机构本质：利用群体多样性整合群体智慧、降低偏差众包模式1．发包方发包方通常是企业或者拥有工作任务需要解决的个人。对于发包方来说，其发布任务的方式有两种：一种是在公司网站上直接发布，以悬赏的方式吸引众多的网民来参与解决问题；另外一种方式，就是通过中介机构，通常是网站社区协会等，发包方与新型网络签订合约。2．接包方接包方就是数量众多的互联网用户，在中国有一个特定的新名称，叫威客。他们既可以是专业人士，也可以是非专业的兴趣爱好者。3．中介机构中介机构是沟通发包方和接包方的桥梁。降低偏差Diversity统计上来说，群体偏差总是小于等于平均偏差众包的特点第一，众包是对外包的颠覆。第二，众包蕴含著“携手用户协同创新”的理念。第三，众包延伸了创新边界，借社会资源为己所用。第四，在众包中，“草根”的创新愈发成为主流。众包的优势预测市场解决问题&驱动创新预测市场群体偏差=平均偏差–多样性多样性=精确性多样性的预测市场定理预测市场–Predictionmarkets(alsoknownaspredictivemarkets,informationmarkets,decisionmarkets,ideafutures,eventderivatives,orvirtualmarkets)arespeculativemarketscreatedforthepurposeofmakingpredictions.–Thecurrentmarketpricescanthenbeinterpretedaspredictionsoftheprobabilityoftheeventortheexpectedvalueoftheparameter.–Forexample,apredictionmarketsecuritymightrewardadollarifaparticularcandidateiselected,suchthatanindividualwhothinksthecandidatehada70%chanceofbeingelectedshouldbewillingtopayupto70centsforsuchasecurity.introduction预测市场–Peoplewhobuylowandsellhigharerewardedforimprovingthemarketprediction,whilethosewhobuyhighandselllowarepunishedfordegradingthemarketprediction.–EvidencesofarsuggeststhatpredictionmarketsareatleastasaccurateasotherinstitutionspredictingthesameeventswithasimilarpoolofparticipantsIntroduction预测市场Intrade预测市场HSX预测市场HP–Predictionmarketforecastsarestatisticallysignificantlybetterthanofficialforecasts.–Only22participantsonaverage.预测市场Gallup解决问题&驱动创新问题的多方面的特征预示着解决方案的多样性我们往往只考虑某些特征，从而决定了我们个体视角的局限群体的多元差异带来视角的多样性视角解决问题&驱动创新视角想像解决问题，就是寻找问题的全局最优解解决问题&驱动创新视角找到最优解也意味着找到了最好的视角解决问题&驱动创新视角找到最优解也意味着找到了最好的视角解决问题&驱动创新视角–Hiringpeopletosolveahardproblem–1,000applicantstakeatesttomeasuretheirindividualabilities–Scoresrangefrom60%to90%–Shouldyouhire:A.20peoplewiththe20highestscores,orB.20peoplerandomlyselectedfromtheapplicantpool?解决问题&驱动创新Perspective–ThebestindividualpeopletendtousesimilarperspectivesandheuristicsProblemSolvingPerspective–ThebestindividualpeopletendtousesimilarperspectivesandheuristicsWhendoesitwork?Diversitytrumpsability–DifficultyNoindividualalwaysfindsthebestanswer–CompetencePeopledon’tgetstuckintoomanyplacesi.e.theyarereasonablywell-informed–DiversityForanysolutionthereisalwaysanon-zerofractionofpeoplethatcouldimproveuponit–LargeenoughteamsandgroupsWhendoesitwork?Diversitytrumpsability–Whentheseconditionsaresatisfied,arandomgroupwillalwaysoutperformagroupofthebestindividualproblemsolversShouldyoubehiringpeopleatrandom?NOWhendoesitwork?Diversitytrumpsability–Insteadof“hiringatrandom”wecanusecrowdsourcingandopeninnovationtoincreasethesizeanddiversityofourproblemsolvingandinnovationworkforce–“BrightSpots”–Ratherthansolvetheproblemyourself,lookforexistingsolutionsTheCrowdalwaysbeatsitsaveragemember–problemsolving,innovationDiversityWhendoesitwork?DiversitytrumpsabilityWhendoesitwork?DiversitytrumpsabilityWhendoesitwork?DiversitytrumpsabilityWhendoesitwork?DiversitytrumpsabilityWhendoesitwork?DiversitytrumpsabilityWhendoesitwork?DiversitytrumpsabilityWhendoesitwork?DiversitytrumpsabilityWhendoesitwork?DiversitytrumpsabilityWhendoesitwork?DiversitytrumpsabilityWhendoesitwork?Diversitytrumpsability–CrowdsourcingalsoincreasesefficiencyWhendoesitwork?Diversitytrumpsability–CrowdfundingusescrowdstogeneratestartupcapitalWhendoesitwork?Diversitytrumpsability–CrowdfundingusescrowdstogeneratestartupcapitalMatthewLillardwouldlikeadollar.Actually,theactorbestknownforplayingShaggyinthelive-actionScoobyDoofilmswouldlike$150,000.Buthe'dbehappyifyougavehimjustone.LillardisraisingmoneyonthepopularwebsiteKickstartertofundhisupcomingmovie,FatKidRulestheWorld.Todate,morethan20,000projectshavebeenhostedonthesitesincetheNewYorkCity-basedcompany's2008launch.Kickstartervetsprojectsinadvance(acceptingabout75%ofapplicants)andhoststhecampaigns,whichcanlastupto60days,forfree.Whendoesitwork?Diversitytrumpsability–CrowdfundingusescrowdstogeneratestartupcapitalThesite'stwotop-grossingcampaignswerelaunchedbyestablishedprofessionalsandangel-backedcompanies.InMarch2012,avideogameprojectcalledDoubleFineAdventurewaspostedbywell-lovedindustryveteransandpulledin$3.3million.Thenewrecordholder,thePebbleE-PaperWatch,reportedlyhad$375,000inangelinvestmentsbeforekickingoffitscampaignlastmonth.Ofthe$10millionthatitraised,Kickstarterearned$500,000.Todate,peoplehavepledgedmorethan$175milliontoprojectsonthesite.Whendoesitwork?Diversitytrumpsability–Crowdfundingusescrowdstogeneratestartupcapitalcompanyonlymakesmoneyifthecampaignreachesitsfundinggoal—atthattime,Kickstarterreceives5%ofthecampaign'stakeAmazon,whichprocessesthecreditcardtransactionsalsoreceivesbetween3and5%ofeachtransaction.Whendoesitwork?Diversitytrumpsability–CrowdfundingusescrowdstogeneratestartupcapitalSuccesshaschangedthesite'scharacterdramatically.Onceacommunitywhereindividualinventorsandindieartistssoughtoutsmallsumstofundcreativeprojects,Kickstarterhasbeentransformedintoaplatformwherec