考虑资本2能源2劳动投入的中国超越对数生产函数

200455:100026788(2004)052005120422,(,,,100084):,,,LL;,;,,,L:;;;;;;;:F062.1:AChina’sTrans2logProductionFunctionUsingCapital,EnergyandLaborasInputZHENGZhao2ning,LIUDe2shun(ResearchCenterofContemporaryManagement&GlobalClimateChangeInstitute,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing100084,China)Abstract:Besidescapitalstockandlabor,addingtheenergyasaninput,aChina’strans2logfunctionwithtimetrendisbuilt.Theridgeregressionapproachisusedtoestimatetheparametersofthemodel,andtheelasticityofproductivity,substitutionelasticityandthebiasoftechnologicalprogressofdiffer2entinputsarestudied.Moreover,wefindthattheincreasingscalereturnwithdecreasingtrendisexist2edinChina’sEconomy;capitalcaneffectivelysubstitutelaborandenergybutthesubstitutionbetweenlaborandenergyislow;andthebiasofthetechnologicalprogressissmallfordifferentinputs,therankofrateoftechnologicalprogressiscapitalenergylaborwithconvergingtrendwhichmeansneutraltechnologicalprogressismaincharacteristicfortechnologicalchange.Keywords:energy,capital,labor,trans2logproductionfunction;ridgeregression;elasticityofpro2ductivity;substitutionelasticity;technologicalprogress:2003206226:(01JAZJD630008):(1974-),,,,1,,,Cobb2Douglas,(CES)[1]L,,;,C2DCESL[2],(QuadraticResponseSurface),L[3],,,,©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.L2(GDP),(K),(E)(L),,S=T-T0,L:lnGDPt=A+BSS+BSSS2+BKlnKt+BLlnLt+BElnEt+BKLlnKtlnLt+BKElnKtlnEt+BLElnLtlnEt+BKK(lnKt)2+BLL(lnLt)2+BEE(lnEt)2+BKS(lnKt)S+BLS(lnLt)S+BES(lnEt)S.(1)GL=dGDPöGDPdLöL=dlnGDPtdlnLt=BL+BKLlnKt+BLElnEt+2BLLlnLt+BLSS.(2)GK=BK+BKLlnLt+BKElnEt+2BKKlnKt+BKSS.(3)GE=BE+BKElnKt+BLElnLt+2BEElnEt+BESS.(4)GS=BS+2BSSS+BKSlnKt+BLSlnLt+BESlnEt.(5)L:RKL=11+-BKL+GKGLBLL-GK+GL.(6)RKE=11+-BKE+GKGEBEE-GK+GE.(7)RLE=11+-BLE+GLGEBEE-GL+GE.(8)ij,[3]:BIASij=BiSGi-BjSGj.(9),BIASij0ij,BIASij0ij,BIASij=0ijL,(),LCobb2Douglas,(CES)L3(GDP)(K)[4],(E)(L),S=T-1978L,,2520045©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(VIF)R=0.808,STATISTICA[5],1L,,L1L;L,L1tp2VIFA0.2243123.3870090.0662270.9488222S0.0714620.0926620.0067570.0087620.7712160.4627468591.073743S20.0686420.0893610.0002850.0003710.7681470.4644679430.670321lnKt0.0705850.0925190.0752530.0986360.7629330.4674016241.104642lnLt0.0591560.0911860.1888150.2910490.6487410.5346810820.868952lnEt0.067560.0916670.136820.1856420.7370110.4821679590.917856lnKtlnLt0.068190.0927890.0050770.0069090.7348920.4833886031.133694lnKtlnEt0.0698950.0927450.0044290.0058770.7536240.472669871.117647lnLtlnEt0.0643530.0919760.0072140.010310.6996750.5039633511.037407(lnKt)20.0705650.092320.0035840.0046890.7643520.4666018491.082363(lnLt)20.0590120.0912360.0086340.0133480.6468090.5358682870.870865(lnEt)20.067430.0917120.0059890.0081460.7352280.4831947980.917031lnKtS0.0713840.0925380.0005890.0007630.7714050.4626408521.093201lnLtS0.0710210.0926910.0005980.0007810.7662070.4655578141.093329lnEtS0.0711690.0927050.0005650.0007360.7676960.4647210241.102631:VIF,[6]AdjustedR2=.83540576,F=8.9759,p0.00201,:0.26019,1L12,,19780.2520000.54,L,90,,L,35522©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,L1,L2.5,0.5,,L,,L,L33L3,,,L4,,L,L:[1]KemfertC,WelschH.Energy2capital2laborsubstitutionandtheeconomiceffectsofCO2abatement:evidenceforgermany[J].Jofpolicymodeling,2000,22(6):641-660.[2].[M]..:,2000.197.[3]KhannaN.AnalyzingtheEconomiccostoftheKyotoprotocol[J].EcologicalEconomics,2001,38(1):59-69.[4],.[J].,2002,(11):21-25.[5],,.STATISTICAforWindows[M]..:,,2002.205-209.[6].[M].:,1999.149-157L:RKL=dKLKLdMPLMPKMPLMPK=dKLMPLMPKMPLMPKKL.(A21)MPLMPK=5Y5L5Y5K=GLGKKL.(A22)RKL=dKLMPLMPKGLGK=GLGKdMPLMPKdKL=GLGKdGLGKKLdKL.(A23)(115)4520045©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.3)CSTR(ContinuousStirred2TankReactor),L,,T2SL:[1],.[M].:,2002.[2].[M].,,1997.[3]YanShi,MasaharuMizumoto.Someconsiderationsonconventionalneural2fuzzylearningalgorithmsbygradientde2scentmethod[J].FuzzySetsandSystems,2000,112(1):51-63.[4]Chyi2TsongChen,Shih2TeinPeng.Intelligentprocesscontrolusingneuralfuzzytechniques[J].JournalofProcessControl,1999,19(6):493-503.[5]TomohiroTakagi,MichioSugeno.Fuzzyidentificationofsystemsanditsapplicationstomodelingandcontrol[J].IEEETransactiononSystems,ManandCybernetic,1998,115(1):116-132.(54)dGLGKKLdKL=GLGK+KLdGLGKdKL.(A24)dGLGK=-GLG2KdGK+1GKdGL.(A25)dKL=-KL2dL+1LdK.(A26)(A25),(A26)(A24)dLdGLGKdKL=-GLG2KdGK+1GKdGL-KL2dL+1LdK=-GLG2KdGKdL+1GKdGLdL-KL2+1LdKdL.(A27)(A27)(A23),RKL=11+-BKL+GKGLBLL-GK+GL.(6)5115©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.