(经典)大摩-Ford汽车析战略报告

PresentationtotheAutomotiveNewsWorldCongressStephenJ.GirskyJanuary2004DisclosuresAnalystCertificationAnalystCertificationThefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnotreceivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreport:StephenJ.Girsky.ImportantUSRegulartoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompaniesTheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyMorganStanley&Co.Incorporated(“MorganStanley”).AsofNovember28,2003,MorganStanleybeneficiallyowned1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingcompaniescoveredinthisreport:Delphi,GeneralMotors,GoodyearTire&Rubber,JohnsonControls,MagnaIntlInc.,TBCandTowerAutomotive.Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleymanagedorco-managedapublicofferingofsecuritiesofDaimlerChryslerAG,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,StandardMotorProductsandTenneco.Withinthelast12months,MorganStanley,MorganStanleyoranaffiliatehasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAftermarketTechnology,AmericanAxleandMfg.,BorgWarnerInc.,DaimlerChryslerAG,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,StandardMotorProducts,SuperiorIndustries,Tenneco,TowerAutomotiveandVisteonCorporation.Inthenext3months,MorganStanleyexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAftermarketTechnology,AmericanAxleandMfg.,ArvinMeritor,AutoNation,BorgWarnerInc.,DaimlerChryslerAG,DanaCorp.,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,GenuinePartsCo.,GoodyearTire&Rubber,JohnsonControls,LearCorp.,LithiaMotors,MagnaIntlInc.,StandardMotorProducts,SuperiorIndustries,Tenneco,TowerAutomotive,UnitedAutoGroupandVisteonCorporation.Theresearchanalysts,strategist,orresearchassociatesprincipallyresponsibleforthepreparationoftheresearchreporthavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingqualityofresearch,investorclientfeedback,stockpicking,competitivefactors,firmrevenuesandinvestmentbankingrevenues.MorganStanley&Co.IncorporatedmakesamarketinthesecuritiesofAftermarketTechnology,Delphi,DuraAutomotive,Ford,GeneralMotors,MagnaIntl.,TBCandTowerAutomotive.GlobalStockRatingsDistribution(asofDecember31,2003)(Continued)CoverageUniverseInvestmentBankingClient(IBC)StockRatingCategoryCount%oftotalCount%oftotalIBC%ofRatingCategoryOverweight592322413841Equal-Weight856462874634Underweight402229816Total1,850626DisclosuresDataincludecommonstockandADRscurrentlyassignedratings.Fordisclosurepurposes(inaccordancewithNASDandNYSErequirements),wenotethatOverweight,ourmostpositivestockrating,mostcloselycorrespondstoabuyrecommendation;Equal-weightandUnderweightmostcloselycorrespondtoneutralandsellrecommendations,respectively.However,Overweight,Equal-weight,andUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,neutral,andsellbutrepresentrecommendedrelativeweightings(seedefinitionsbelow).Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.InvestmentBankingClientsarecompaniesfromwhomMorganStanleyoranaffiliatereceivedinvestmentbankingcompensationinthelast12months.AnalystStockRatingsOverweight(OorOver)-Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtoexceedtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasisoverthenext12-18months.Equal-weight(EorEqual)-Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobeinlinewiththeaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasisoverthenext12-18months.Underweight(UorUnder)-Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobebelowtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.Morevolatile(V)-Weestimatethatthisstockhasmorethana25%chanceofapricemove(upordown)ofmorethan25%inamonth,basedonaquantitativeassessmentofhistoricaldata,orintheanalyst'sview,itislikelytobecomemateriallymorevolatileoverthenext1-12monthscomparedwiththepastthreeyears.Stockswithlessthanoneyearoftradinghistoryareautomaticallyratedasmorevolatile(unlessotherwisenoted).Wenotethatsecuritiesthatwedonotcurrentlyconsidermorevolatilecanstillperforminthatmanner.Unlessotherwisespecified,thetimeframeforpricetargetsincludedinthisreportis12to18months.RatingspriortoMarch18,2002:SB=StrongBuy;OP=Outperform;N=Neutral;UP=Underperform.Fordefinitions,pleasegoto(A).Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniversetobeattractivevs.therelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkoverthenext12-18months.In-Line(I).Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniversetobeinlinewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkoverthenext12-18months.Cautious(C).Theanalystviewstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniversewithcautionvs.thereleventbroadmarketbenchmarkoverthenext12-18months.OtherImportantDisclosuresForadiscussion,ifapplicable,ofthevaluationmethodsusedtodeterminethepricetargetsincludedinthissummaryandtherisksrelatedtoachievingthesetargets,pleaserefertothelatestrelevantpublishedresearchonthe