《风电功率预测功能规范》及编制说明-修改

Q/GDW588—2011ICS29.24029.240P29.240备案号：CEC400^2010国家电网公司企业标准Q/GDW588—2011风电功率预测功能规范Functionspecificationofwindpowerforecasting2011-03-03发布2011-03-03实施国家电网公司发布Q/GDW0Q/GDW588—2011I目次前言·······························································································································II1范围··························································································································12规范性引用文件···········································································································13术语和定义·················································································································14预测建模数据准备········································································································25数据采集与处理···········································································································26预测功能要求··············································································································37统计分析····················································································································48界面要求····················································································································49安全防护要求··············································································································510数据输出···················································································································511性能要求···················································································································5附录A····························································································································6附录B····························································································································7编制说明·························································································································9Q/GDW588—20110II前言根据《关于下达2010年度国家电网公司技术标准编制（修）订计划的通知》（国家电网科〔2010〕320号）的要求，中国电力科学研究院和吉林省电力有限公司开展了《风电功率预测功能规范》的编制工作。为进一步提高风电调度运行管理水平，规范电网调度机构和风电场风电功率预测系统的建设，并指导系统的研发、验收和使用，特制订本功能规范。本标准由国家电力调度通信中心提出并解释；本标准由国家电网公司科技部归口；本标准主要起草单位：中国电力科学研究院、吉林省电力有限公司；本标准主要起草人：刘纯、裴哲义、王勃、董存、冯双磊、范高锋、范国英、郭雷。0Q/GDW588—20111风电功率预测功能规范1范围本标准规定了风电功率预测系统的功能，主要包括术语和定义、预测建模数据准备、数据采集与处理、预测功能要求、统计分析、界面要求、安全防护要求、数据输出及性能要求等。本标准适用于电网调度机构和风电场风电功率预测系统的建设，系统的研发、验收和运行可参照使用。2规范性引用文件下列文件对于本标准的应用是必不可少的。凡是注日期的引用文件，仅注日期的版本适用于本标准。凡是不注日期的引用文件，其最新版本（包括所有的修改单）适用于本标准。Q/GDW392—2009风电场接入电网技术规定Q/GDW432—2010风电调度运行管理规范3术语和定义下列术语和定义适用于本文件。3.1风电场windfarm由一批风电机组或风电机组群（包括机组单元变压器）、汇集线路、主升压变压器及其他设备组成的发电站。3.2数值天气预报numericalweatherprediction根据大气实际情况，在一定的初值和边值条件下，通过大型计算机作数值计算，求解描写天气演变过程的流体力学和热力学方程组，预测未来一定时段的大气运动状态和天气现象的方法。3.3风电功率预测windpowerforecasting以风电场的历史功率、历史风速、地形地貌、数值天气预报、风电机组运行状态等数据建立风电场输出功率的预测模型，以风速、功率或数值天气预报数据作为模型的输入，结合风电场机组的设备状态及运行工况，预测风电场未来的有功功率。3.4短期风电功率预测short-termwindpowerforecasting预测风电场次日零时起3天的有功功率，时间分辨率为15min。3.5超短期风电功率预测ultra-short-termwindpowerforecasting预测风电场未来0-4h的有功功率，时间分辨率不小于15min。3.6置信度confidencedegree总体参数值落在样本统计值某一区内的概率。3.7风电有效发电时间effectivewindpowergenerationtime单个或多个风电场有功功率大于零的时间，单位为小时。3.8风电同时率windpowersimultaneityfactorQ/GDW588—201102单个或多个风电场有功功率与额定容量的比率。4预测建模数据准备4.1风电场历史功率数据a）投运时间不足1年的风电场应包括投运后的所有历史功率数据，时间分辨率不小于5min；b）投运时间超过1年的风电场的历史功率数据应不少于1年，时间分辨率应不小于5min。4.2历史测风塔数据a）测风塔位置宜在风电场5km范围内；b）应至少包括10m、70m及以上高程的风速和风向以及气温、气压等信息；c）应为最近两年内的数据，有效时长应不少于1年；d）数据的时间分辨率应不小于10min。4.3风电机组信息风电机组信息应包括机组类型，每类风机的单机容量、轮毂高度、叶轮直径、功率曲线、推力系数曲线，每台风机的首次并网时间、风机位置（经、纬度）、海拔高度等。4.4风电机组/风电场运行状态记录风电机组状态数据应包括风电机组故障和人为停机记录，风电场运行状态应包括风电场开机容量和限电记录。4.5地形和粗糙度数据4.5.1地形数据应包括对风电场区域内10km范围内地势变化的描述，格式宜为CAD文件，比例尺宜不小于1:5000。4.5.2粗糙度数据应通过实地勘测或卫星地图获取，包括对风电场所处区域20km范围内粗糙度的描述。5数据采集与处理5.1数据采集范围数据采集至少应包括测风塔实时测风数据、风电场实时功率数据和机组状态数据。5.2数据采集要求5.2.1所有数据的采集应能自动完成，并支持通过手动方式补充录入。5.2.2测风塔实时测风数据时间延迟应小于5min，其余实时数据的时间延迟应小于1min。5.2.3风电功率预测系统所用的测风塔实时测风数据应满足以下要求：a）测风塔至风电功率预测系统的实时测风数据传送时间间隔应不大于5min；b）测风塔宜在风电场外1~5km范围内且不受风电场尾流效应影响，宜在风电场主导风向的上风向，位置应具有代表性；c）采集量应至少包括10m、70m及轮毂高度的风速和风向以及气温、气压等信息，宜包括瞬时值和5min平均值；d）电网调度机构的风电功率预测系统所用的测风数据应通过电力调度数据网由风电场上传；e）风电场的测风塔至风电功率预测系统的数据传输应采用可靠的无线传输或光纤传输等方式；f）测风塔数据可用率应大于99％。5.2.4风电场实时功率数据的采集周期应不大于1min，其中：a）电网调度机构的风电功率预测系统的数据应取自所在安全区的基础数据平台；b）风电场风电功率预测系统的数据应取自风电场计算机监控系统。5.2.5风电机组状态数据的采集周期应不大于15min，应通过电力调度数据网由风电场计算机监控系统上传。5.3数据的处理5.3.1所有数据存入数据库前应进行完整性及合理性检验，并对缺测和异常数据进行补充和修正。0Q/GDW588—201135.3.2数据完整性检验应满足：a）数据的数量应等于预期记录的数据数量；b）数据的时间顺序应符合预期的开始、结束时间，中间应连续。5.3.3数据合理性检验应满足：a）对功率、数值天气预报、测风塔等数据进行越限检验，可手动设置限值范围；b）对功率的变化率进行检验，可手动设置变化率限值；c）对功率的均值及标准差进行检验；d）对测风塔不同层高数据进行相关性检验；e）根据测风数据与功率数据的关系对数据进行相关性检验。5.3.4缺测和异常数据应按下列要求处理：a）以前一时刻的功率数据补全缺测的功率数据；b）以装机容量替代大于装机容量的功率数据；c）以零替代小于零的功率数据；d）以前一时刻功率替代异常的功率数据；e）测风塔缺测及不合理数据以其余层高数据根据相关性原理进行修正；不具备修正条件的以前一时刻数据替代；f）数值天气预报缺测及不合理数据以前一时刻数据替代；g）所有经过修正的数据以特殊标示记录；h）所有缺测和异常数据均可由人工补录或修正。5.4数据的存储数据的存储应符合下列要求：a）存储系统运行期间所有时刻的数值天气预报数据；b）存储系统运行期间所有时刻的功率数据、测风塔数据，并将其转化为15min平均数据；c）存储每次执行的短期风电功率预测的所有预测结果；d）存储每15min滚动执行的超短期风电功率预测的所有预测结果；e）预测曲线经过人工修正后存储修正前后的所有预测结果；f）所有数据至少保存10年。6预测功能要求6.1总体要求应根据风电场所处地理位置的气候特征和风电