全球生物乙醇发展现状、可能影响与我国的对策分析

1,2,1,1(1.,100101;2.,311300):,,,,,,,,:;;;:TK6:A:1002-9753(2009)03-0023-08Bio-ethanolDevelopment:Currentstatus,PotentialImpactsandPolicySuggestionsforChinaWUWei-guang1,2,QIUHuan-guang1,HUANGJi-kun1(1.CenterforChineseAgriculturalPolicy,InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalRecoursesResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100101,China;2.DepartmentofEconomicsandManagement,ZhejiangForestryUniversity,Linan311300,China)Abstract:Theglobaldevelopmentofbio-ethanolhasbeenacceleratinginthelastfewyearsduetotheconcernsforen2ergysecurity,greenhousegasemission,andruraldevelopment.However,withtheexpansionoffirstgenerationbio-ethanol(grainbased),itsimpactsonfoodprice,foodsecurityandenvironmentstarttoloomlarger,andhasbeendrawingmanydebates.Thispaperreviewedthecurrentdevelopmentofbio-ethanol,targets,andincentivepoliciesinmajorbio-ethanolproductioncountries.Basedonthecurrentfeedstockdemandandprocessingtechnologiesofbio-ethanol,thepaperanalyzeditspotentialimpactsonagriculturalpricesandenvironment.Withtheexpectationthattheglobalbio-ethanolproductionwillstillcontinueinthenextfollowingyearsandbringpressureforagriculturalprices,wediscussedthepoliciesthatChinasgovernmentshouldadopttomeetthechallengesofbio-ethanoldevelopment.Keywords:bio-ethanol;currentstatus;priceandenvironmentaleffects;policysuggestions:2008-11-26:2009-03-03:(08JA790120)(07BJY062)(70741034/70603036):(1972-),,,,,:32,,(),2000452,200713126[1](),,,,[2],,,,()2070,,200111975-2007[1]19751.5,20004520012007,,30%,2007131,20003,,80%,2007133(4.4),,,()1.,,,,2006,17[1]112012132;2022350201295,201611520105.75%;202010%(80%),2010400(13);2020400(33),,20105%,200710%,,20085%;201010%,:0.79/,1=3.785:://[3]2.,,(1),200758,25%20071,2012132,2017350OECDFAO2007-2016,20161.1,32%[4],[5]:(1),51,,54(2)(incometaxcredit)1990,3000,102005,,6000(3),,(2),1970,(NationalFuelAlcoholProgram)30,,,,,100%22%-25%200748,201295,2016115,,,[6]:(1),(2)1980-1985,20,29%(3),(3),,[7]2001504,130(4.4),2007,20(0.7),2008,910%2007,133(4.4),400510%,976510%522005,,2007,20201000(33),20(0.7),[8]:(1)(10%)5%;(2)(17%);(3),200713702006-2007,,,(),,,,,,Yangetal.(2008)[9],,[10],,202010%;,,3,;,[11]:,,;,,;,,,,[12-14],,,[2,14],,,22,,,;,,,,2(/)(/)(/)5.292.821.871:1.3063.9713.314.811:9.019.57.52.871:1.356015.33.921:1.65102.54.001:10:,,,6220093(),,,,(),,,,[2,16](),,,,[12],,,;,,,,,()(IMF),200721.6%,,42.6%34.4%33.3%[17],2025860,,13%6%30%[18](IMPACT),,30%[19](),,,1,Shapourietal(1995,2002),,,1,,,19941.2420011.34[20-21]Macedoetal.(2004),,8.310.2,,,2.6-2.7[22]Nguyen(2008),E10(10%),,E10,6.3%;[23],,,,Pimenteletal.(2003,2005),,,[13],Youngquist(1997)Patzek(2004),;72[2],FargioneSearchingerScience,,,,,[24-25]:,();,;,,,[26](),,;,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,[27-30],734.39,667.43[31],,201220%,202050%,2012129,500;2020322,1200,5700,15%-20%,,(),,,,,,,,[32]8220093,,[33],,,,,,,,,,,,:[1]EarthPolicyInstitute.WorldEthanolProductionandWorldBiodieselProduction[EB].[2]Rajagopal,Deepak,DavidZilberman.ReviewofEnviron2mental,EconomicandPolicyAspectsofBiofuels,PolicyRe2search[R].WorkingPaper4341,2007.[3].[R].2007,,2007.[4]OECD(OrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevel2opment)andFAO(FoodandAgricultureOrganization).Agri2culturalOutlook2007-2016[M].2007.Availableat:[5]Pelkmans,Luc.BiofuelintheUnitedStates[R].ReportwithinPREMIAWP2:Internationalactivitiesonalternativemotorfuels,2005.[6]Pousa,GabriellaP.A.G.,Andre,L.F.Santos,PauloA.Z.Suarez.HistoryandPolicyofBiodieselinBrazil[J].Ener2gyPolicy,2007,(35):5393-5398.[7].[R].,2007.7-14.[8],,,.[J].,2007,23(9):276-282.[9]YangJ.,H.Qiu,J.Huang,andS.Rozelle.FightingGlobalFoodPriceRisesintheDevelopingWorld,AgriculturalEconomics[J].Forthcoming,2008.[10][EB].[11]Hecht,AlanD.SustainableProductionofBiofuel[R].PapersubmittedatChina-USWorkshopBio-energyConse2quencesforGlobalEnvironmentalChange.Beijing,China.Nov.2008.[12]Brown,LesterR.DistilleryDemandforGraintoFuelCarsVastlyUnderstated:WorldMayBeFacingHighestGrainPricesinHistory[R].ReportofEarthPolicyInstitute,Wash2ingtonDC,2007.[13]Pimentel,David,TadW.Patzek.EthanolProductionUsingCorn,Switchgrass,andWood;BiodieselProductionUsingSoybeanandSunflower[J].NaturalResourcesRe2search,2005,14(1):65-76,[14]Runge,C.F.andB.Senauer.Biofuel:CornisnttheKingofthisGrowingDomain[J].Nature,2007,450(7169):478-478.[15]Gohin,A.,andG.Moschini.ImpactsoftheEuropeanBiofuelPolicyontheFarmSector:AGeneralEquilibriumAs2sessment[R].DraftPreparedforBiofuels,Food&FeedTradeoffsConferenceOrganizedbyFarmFoundationandtheUSDA,St.Louis,Missouri,April12-13,2007.[16]Koizumi,Tatsuji,KeijiOhga.BiofuelsPoliciesinAsianCountries:ImpactoftheExpandedBiofuelsProgramsonWorldAgriculturalMarkets[J].JournalofAgricultural&FoodIn2dustrialOrganization,2007Volume5,SpecialIssue:Explora2tionsinBiofuelsEconomics,Policy,andHistory,2007.[17]IMF(InternationalMonetaryFoundation).Prima