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RussianAutomotiveMarketStudy2014May2014Russiaatthecrossroads22014-05-13-RB-AUTO-RussianMarket-F.pptxRussiahassofarnotliveduptoobservers'optimisticexpectations;themajorityofplayersarestrugglingwithlocalsalesandproduction.CurrentgeopoliticalandmacroeconomicchallengesaddtotheconcernsWebelieveRussiaisstillanattractivemarket–andwhileitmustnotbeignored,itshouldnotbeoverestimated:–Short-andmedium-termautomotivesaleswillstagnateduetoweakmacroeconomicconditionsandthecurrentpoliticalsituation–Thenext2-3yearsaregoingtobedifficult–Weexpectthemarkettorecoverandgrowinthelongterm,reachingapprox.3.3munitsinlightvehiclesalesby2020(2%CAGR2012-2020)–Theearlierforecastof4mvehiclesnolongerrealistic–Therearesignificantriskstothislong-termforecast,mainlyduetothefragilemacroeconomicandpoliticalsituation,unclearmarketsupportanddelayedmodernization/diversificationoftheeconomyTheconcernsaboutRussiaasanautomotiveproductionlocationhaveincreasedfurther:–Advantagesoflocalproductionvs.importswilldiminishduetoexpirationofpreferentialtermsforlocalmanufacturers(decree166),decreaseinimportdutiesandweakoverallcostcompetitiveness–Evenwithsubsidiesforlocalmanufacturersatthecurrentlevel,theshareofimportswillgrow–Inmostcasesproductionofsmaller-volumemodels(25,000unitsp.a.)nolongerprofitableby2020–Approx.40%offoreignbrandvolumecurrentlyproducedlocallyisatriskofbeingimportedinthefuture–Risksofautomotivedeindustrializationandovercapacitywillmakethebusinessmodelespeciallyofcontractmanufacturersobsolete;lesslocalizationofsuppliersandlesslocalcontentendangertheentireindustryIfactionsarenottakenverysoonandinacoordinatedway,thedeindustrializationscenariowillbecomereality,andrequireevenhigherinvestmentswithlessabilitytoinfluencedevelopmentatalaterstageManagementsummarySource:RolandBergeranalysis32014-05-13-RB-AUTO-RussianMarket-F.pptxThisdocumentshallbetreatedasconfidential.Ithasbeencompiledfortheexclusive,internalusebyourclientandisnotcompletewithouttheunderlyingdetailanalysesandtheoralpresentation.Itmaynotbepassedonand/ormaynotbemadeavailabletothirdpartieswithoutpriorwrittenconsentfromRolandBergerStrategyConsultants.RBSCdoesnotassumeanyresponsibilityforthecompletenessandaccuracyofthestatementsmadeinthisdocument.©RolandBergerStrategyConsultantsContentsPageA.Studybackgroundandobjectives4B.Themarket–Long-termgrowth,butthedouble-digitratesareover7C.Theindustry–Higherimportsharesincreasetheriskofdeindustrialization18D.Thetodo's–TopprioritiesinRussiaforthecomingyears40E.Ourcontacts–RolandBerger'sautomotiveteamforRussia4842014-05-13-RB-AUTO-RussianMarket-F.pptxA.Studybackgroundandobjectives52014-05-13-RB-AUTO-RussianMarket-F.pptxAsignificantnumberofstudiesontheRussianautomotivemarketandindustryhavebeenissuedoverthepastfewyears,allwithanoptimisticviewofthefutureHowever,inourprojectsanddiscussionswithmajorplayers,seriousconcernsandmultipledifficultieswerementioned:–Decreasingsalesandproductionvolumesintherecentpast–ContinuouschallengesfacedbyinternationalOEMsinfulfillingtheassembly/localizationobligationsaccompaniedbyunclear,frequentlychangingregulations–Slowtransformationprocessoftheindustry,makingRussiafallevenfurtherbehinddevelopedandotheremergingmarkets–Weakmacroeconomicdevelopment,andnoclearvisionofthecountryforafuturepathtoprosperity–Currentgeopoliticalissues(Crimeacrisis),whichfurtherincreaseuncertaintyWiththisstudy,weaimtodraftascenarioforRussiathattakesintoaccounttheopportunitiesofthemarketaswellasthecurrentdifficultiesandpotentialrisksSofar,RussiahasnotmettheoptimisticexpectationsoutlinedinmultipleearlierstudiesSource:RolandBergeranalysis62014-05-13-RB-AUTO-RussianMarket-F.pptxWefocusonprovidinganobjectiveviewfor3questionsaboutRussia'sautomotivefuture1.HowwilltheautomotivemarketinRussiadevelopbetweennowand2020?(ChapterB)2.HowimportantislocalproductioninRussiaforbeingsuccessful,andwhatdirectionisauto-motiveproductionindustrytaking?(ChapterC)3.WhatdomajorstakeholdergroupsneedtodotomakeRussiaamoreattractiveautomotivelocation/becomemoresuccessful?(ChapterD)72014-05-13-RB-AUTO-RussianMarket-F.pptxB.Themarket–Long-termgrowth,butthedouble-digitratesareover82014-05-13-RB-AUTO-RussianMarket-F.pptxToday,Russiaistheworld's7thlargestmarketinlightvehiclesalesandthe5thlargestintrucksalesSalesinthetop10globalmarkets,2013Source:IHS,RolandBergeranalysisLightvehicles[munits]Trucks['000units]Rank123456789100.6JapanCanada1.71.40.3France2.11.80.32.52.30.3Russia2.8UnitedKingdom0.2India3.02.60.52.6Germany3.22.80.4Brazil3.63.05.24.50.6UnitedStates15.613.12.5China20.815.75.1LightcommercialvehiclesPassengercarsRank12345678910Brazil14810246India21011298349186164China1,0478528938Germany795475925CanadaIndonesia412813France16357Japan7234UnitedStates69Russia114852942HDT(15t)MDT(6-15t)92014-05-13-RB-AUTO-RussianMarket-F.pptxOverthelast10years,Russiawasoneoftheworld'slargestcontributorstogrowth,especiallyforforeignplayersAbsolutegrowthinlightvehiclesales,2003-2013,top10countries[munits]Source:IHS,RolandBergeranalysis2.30.90.80.80.70.50.30.4-0.42.01.3Argentina0.80.30.70.40.5Tu