中国移动通信业管制趋势分析（英文版）

ChinaGlobalEquityResearchComp[e-mail][e-mail]na’sMobileSectorListedcompaniesareaffectedasChinaadjuststelecomsregulationstofollowglobalnorms
Regulationdrivesshareprices.OneofthemajordriversofChinesetelecoms’sharepricesoverthelastfewyearshasbeenregulatorychange.
Trendsfavourfixedlinesector.Inthisreportwereviewthemajorregulatorytrendsandexplainwhywebelievethesetrendsfavourthefixedlinesectoroverthemobilesector.
Cautiousonthemobilemarket.RegulatoryuncertaintyisakeyreasonwhywearecautiousontheChinesemobilemarket.InsidewedescribethepossibleimpactonChinaMobileandChinaUnicom.WirelessCommunications23July2002:Bloomberg,FirstCall,I/B/E/S,IFIS,Multex,QUICKandReutersUBSWarburgisabusinessgroupofUBSAGRegulatoryTrendsInChina’sMobileSector23July20022UBSWarburgContentspageSection1:Investmentcase..................................................................................3Section2:Underlyingtrends................................................................................5—1)TurningthesectorintoaFXearner.......................................................5—2)Independentregulation..........................................................................8—3)Newemphasisonbasicservices&WestChina...................................9—4)Adoptingtoglobalnormsinregulations...............................................11—5)Lessrelativesupportforthemobilesector..........................................13—6)SupportforCDMA................................................................................14Section3:Results..............................................................................................16—1)Recentincreaseinspectrumfee.........................................................16—2)Possiblefournew3Glicenses.............................................................18—3)EstablishmentofaUSOfund..............................................................18—4)Potentialformoreastringentradiationstandard.................................21—5)PotentialimpositionofCPP.................................................................24—6)IncreasingsupportforChinaTelecom’sPAS......................................25—7)Lessmobiletariffregulations...............................................................26—8)Promotingimportsubstitution................................[e-mail][e-mail]na’sMobileSector23July20023UBSWarburgInvestmentcaseInthisreport,wediscusstheChinesegovernment’schangeinprioritiesandthedirectionofregulatoryreform.ItistimelytofocusontheseissuesaswebelieveregulatorychangeshavebeenthemainfactoraffectingthesharepricesofthelistedChinesetelecostodate.Wehaveconcludedthatthecurrentlong-termtrendsintelecomsreformwilllikelyleadtochangesthat,asawhole,couldbedetrimentalforthemobilesectorandpositiveforthefixedlinesector.Asaresult,weremaincautiousontheChinesemobilesectorandinsteadfavourthetelecomssectorsinSoutheastAsiaandKorea.WenotethattheregulatoryreformsshouldbeslightlymorenegativeforChinaMobilethanChinaUnicom,duetoissuessuchassupportforCDMA,andthegrowingabilitytodiscounttariffs(whichispositivefortheCDMAproject).Thetrends.WenotesixmajorunderlyingtrendsinChina’stelecomspolicy.ThesetrendsarealreadystartingtoshapeanewsetofprioritiesinChina.(1)Attemptingtoturnthesectorintoanetforeignexchangeearner.Therehasbeenaconcertedefforttoturnaroundthetelecomssectorintoanetforeignexchangeearnerfromadeficitsector.(2)NewemphasisonbasicservicesandwesternChina.Thereisgrowingpoliticalpressuretoprovidebasicservicesinthelessdevelopedregionsandtohavethecostsbornebythericheroperators.(3)Adoptingtoglobalnormsintelecomsregulations.ThereisagrowingefforttoshiftChineseregulationsinlinewithglobalpractices.ThisispartiallyaresultofChina’sentrytotheWTO.(4)Lessrelativesupportforthemobilesector.ThemobilesectorhaswitnessedtwolargeIPOsandfourassetinjections.ThecurrentprioritiesoftheregulatorsaretheChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomIPOsandtheresultingassetinjections.(5)SupportforCDMA.CDMArepresentsthelargest,single,annualinvestmentChinahasevermade.Thereisstrongpressuretoviewtheprojectasasuccess.(6)Separationoftelecomsregulationandoperations.TheMinistryofInformationIndustry(MII)doesnotnowdirectlyownequityinanytelecomscompany,andthehigh-levelregulatorydecisionsarebeingmadebytheStateCouncilInformationCommission(SCIC).Theimpact.WebelievetheimpactofthesechangesshouldbelargelynegativeforChinaMobileandslightlynegativeforChinaUnicom.Bothcompanieshavebenefitedfromthelackofregulationandcompetitioninthesectortodateandthemovetowardsamoreevenplayingfieldshouldhavenegativefinancialrepercussions.Belowisalistofregulatorychangesthatcouldcomeaboutduetothetrendsmentionedearlier.Thesechangesaredetailedinthisr