FMI7e_ch02Determination of Interest Rates(金融市场好机构―

1Chapter2DeterminationofInterestRatesFinancialMarketsandInstitutions,7e,JeffMaduraCopyright©2006bySouth-Western,adivisionofThomsonLearning.Allrightsreserved.2ChapterOutlineLoanablefundstheoryEconomicforcesthataffectinterestratesForecastinginterestrates3LoanableFundsTheoryLoanablefundstheorysuggeststhatthemarketinterestrateisdeterminedbythefactorsthataffectthesupplyofanddemandforloanablefundsCanbeusedtoexplainmovementsinthegenerallevelofinterestratesofaparticularcountryCanbeusedtoexplainwhyinterestratesamongdebtsecuritiesofagivencountryvary4LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)HouseholddemandforloanablefundsHouseholdsdemandloanablefundstofinanceHousingexpendituresAutomobilesHouseholditemsThereisaninverserelationshipbetweentheinterestrateandthequantityofloanablefundsdemanded5LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)BusinessdemandforloanablefundsBusinessesdemandloanablefundstoinvestinfixedassetsandshort-termassetsBusinessesevaluateprojectsusingnetpresentvalue(NPV):ProjectswithapositiveNPVareacceptedThereisaninverserelationshipbetweeninterestratesandbusinessdemandforloanablefundsntttkCFINVNPV1)1(6LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)GovernmentdemandforloanablefundsGovernmentsdemandfundswhenplannedexpendituresarenotcoveredbyincomingrevenuesMunicipalitiesissuemunicipalbondsThefederalgovernmentissuesTreasurysecuritiesandfederalagencysecuritiesGovernmentdemandforloanablefundsisinterest-inelastic7LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)ForeignDemandforloanablefundsForeigndemandforU.S.fundsisinfluencedbytheinterestratedifferentialbetweencountriesThequantityofU.S.loanablefundsdemandedbyforeigngovernmentsorfirmsisinverselyrelatedtoU.S.interestratesTheforeigndemandschedulewillshiftinresponsetoeconomicconditions8LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)AggregatedemandforloanablefundsThesumofthequantitiesdemandedbytheseparatesectorsatanygiveninterestrateistheaggregatedemandforloanablefunds9LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)DhHouseholdDemandDbBusinessDemand10LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)DgFederalGovernmentDemandDmMunicipalGovernmentDemand11LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)DfForeignDemand12LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)DAAggregateDemand13LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)SupplyofloanablefundsFundsareprovidedtofinancialmarketsbyHouseholds(netsuppliersoffunds)Governmentunitsandbusinesses(netborrowersoffunds)Suppliersofloanablefundssupplymorefundsathigherinterestrates14LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)Supplyofloanablefunds(cont’d)Foreignhouseholds,governments,andcorporationssupplyfundsbypurchasingTreasurysecuritiesForeignhouseholdshaveahighsavingsrateThesupplyisinfluencedbymonetarypolicyimplementedbytheFederalReserveSystemTheFedcontrolstheamountofreservesheldbydepositoryinstitutionsThesupplycurvecanshiftinresponsetoeconomicconditionsHouseholdswouldsavemorefundsduringastrongeconomy15LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)SAAggregateSupply16LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)Equilibriuminterestrate-algebraicTheaggregatedemandcanbewrittenasTheaggregatesupplycanbewrittenasfmgbhADDDDDDfmgbhASSSSSS17LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)SAEquilibriumInterestRate-GraphicDAi18EconomicForcesThatAffectInterestRatesEconomicgrowthShiftsthedemandscheduleoutward(totheright)ThereisnoobviousimpactonthesupplyscheduleSupplycouldincreaseifincomeincreasesasaresultoftheexpansionThecombinedeffectisanincreaseintheequilibriuminterestrate19LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)SAImpactofEconomicExpansionDAiDA2i220EconomicForcesThatAffectInterestRates(cont’d)InflationShiftsthesupplyscheduleinward(totheleft)HouseholdsincreaseconsumptionnowifinflationisexpectedtoincreaseShiftsthedemandscheduleoutward(totheright)Householdsandbusinessesborrowmoretopurchaseproductsbeforepricesrise21LoanableFundsTheory(cont’d)SAImpactofExpectedIncreaseinInflationDAiDA2i2SA222EconomicForcesThatAffectInterestRates(cont’d)FishereffectNominalinterestpaymentscompensatesaversfor:ReducedpurchasingpowerApremiumforforgoingpresentconsumptionTherelationshipbetweeninterestratesandexpectedinflationisoftenreferredtoastheFishereffect23EconomicForcesThatAffectInterestRates(cont’d)Fishereffect(cont’d)Fishereffectequation:Thedifferencebetweenthenominalinterestrateandtheexpectedinflationrateistherealinterestrate:RiINFEi)()(INFEiiR24EconomicForcesThatAffectInterestRates(cont’d)MoneysupplyIftheFedincreasesthemoneysupply,thesupplyofloanablefundsincreasesIfinflationaryexpectationsareaffected,thedemandforloanablefundsmayalsoincreaseIftheFedreducesthemoneysupply,thesupplyofloanablefundsdecreasesDuring2001,theFedincreasedthegrowthofthemoneysupplyseveraltimes25EconomicForcesThatAffectInterestRates(cont’d)Moneysupply(cont’d)September11FirmscutbackonexpansionplansHouseholdscutbackonborrowingplansThedemandofloanablefundsdeclinedTheweakeconomyin2001–2002ReduceddemandforloanablefundsTheFedincreasedthemoneysupplygrowthInterestratesreachedverylowlevels26EconomicForcesThatAffectInterestRates(cont’d)BudgetdeficitAhighdeficitmeansahighdemandforloanablefundsbythegovernmentShiftsthedemandscheduleoutward(totheright)InterestratesincreaseThegovernme