国际金融7

McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.CHAPTER7InternationalLendingandFinancialCrisesMcGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.2Chapter7ObjectivesThischapterexaminesboththegainsfromwell-behavedlendingandborrowingandwhatweknowaboutinternationalfinancialcrises.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.3Internationalfinancialcapital:thelenders(orinvestors)givetheborrowersmoneytobeusednowinexchangeforownershipsharesentitlingthemtointerestanddividendslater.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.4Thecategoriesofinternationalflowsoffinancialclaims:1.bytypeoflenderorinvestor:privateversusofficial,2.bymaturity:longtermversusshortterm,3.byexistenceofmanagementcontrol:directversusportfolio,McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.5A.Privatelendingandinvesting1.Longterma:directinvestmentb:loans(toaforeignborrower,maturitymorethanoneyear,mostlybybanks)c:portfolioinvestment(purchasingstockorbondswithmaturityofmorethanoneyear,issuedbyagovernmentoraforeignenterprisenotcontrolledbytheinvestor)McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.62.shortterm(lendingtoaforeignborrower,orpurchasingbondsissuedbyagovernmentoraforeignenterprisenotcontrolledbytheinvestor,maturityinayearorless)McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.7B.officiallendingandinvesting(byagovernmentormultilateralinstitution:internationalmonetaryfundortheWorldbank,mostlylending,bothlongtermandshortterm)McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.8Internationallendingcanbringmajorbenefitsoftwotypes:1.itrepresentsintertemporaltrade.2.itallowslendersandinvestorstodiversifytheirinvestmentsmorebroadly.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.9A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountriesInternationallendingandborrowingbetweenindustrializedcountriesgenerallyiswell-behaved,butthisisnotthecaseforlendingbyindustrializedcountriestodevelopingcountries.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.10A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountries1.BeforeWorldWarIthereisalargeamountofinternaitionallending,withBritainasthemaincreditorandthegrowingnewlysettledcountries.2.1920s,theUnitedStatesbecameamajorcreditorcountry.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.11A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountries3.1930s,bigdepressionledtomassivedefaultsbydevelopingcountries,whichfrightenedawaylendersthroughthe1960s.Defaults:failstomakepaymentsasspecifiedinthedebtagreements.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.12A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountries4.Theoilshocksofthe1970sledtoasurgeinprivateinternationallendingtodevelopingcountries.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.13A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountriesLendingdramaticallyincreasedinthe1970sforfourreasons.First,oil-exportingcountriesdepositedlargeamountsofpetrodollarsinbanksfollowingtheincreasesinoilprices.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.14A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountriesSecond,thebanksdidnotseegoodprospectsforlendingthismoneytoborrowersforcapitalspendingintheindustrializedcountries.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.15A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountriesThird,developingcountriesresisteddirectforeigninvestment(FDI)frommultinationalsbasedintheindustrializedcountries,soincreasedcapitalflowstothedevelopingcountriestooktheformofbankloanstothesecountries.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.16A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountriesFourth,herdbehavioramongbanksincreasedthetotalamountlenttodevelopingcountries.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.17A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountries羊群效应：指决策者不是根据自己所掌握的基本信息进行决策，而是根据其他决策者的行为决策，因而表现为交易者往往在价格上涨时争相买进，价格下跌时纷纷卖出。McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.18A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountries2.thedebtcrisisof1982BradyPlanMcGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.19A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountries3.theresurgenceofcapitalflowsinthe1990sfourforces:First,thesizeandscopeoftheBradyPlanledinvestorstobelievethatthepreviouscrisiswasbeingresolved.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.20A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountriesSecond,LowU.S.interestratesagainledlendersandinvestorstoseekoutbetterreturnselsewhere.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.21A.internationallendingtodevelopingcountriesThird,andmanydevelopingcountriesbecamemoreattractiveplacestolendasgovernmentsreformedtheirpolicies:1.shiftingtomoremarket-orientedpoliciesastheyderegulatedindustries.McGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsRe