地质灾害风险评价的理论与方法

1006-6616200401-0007-122003-10-092000124001031962-Emailmayinsheng!sohu.com12131.1000812.0652013.150008P694A1207019701019731970200010550199200010120043JOURNALOFGEOMECHANICSol.10No.1Mar.2004172!91987201991IDNDRPREEMPT#$10!169017!37Jefferies1996BayesianCross1998LSI1andslidesusceptibilityindexDerbyshireMarioMejia-Navarro&EllenE.Wohl1994ColombiaMedellinGISR.anbalagan&BhawaniSingh1996R.anbalagan1992RaMRagozin2000Johnson2000GISCairnsP.aleollt2000GISPiedmontM.Michael-leiba2000GISCairnsa.Ragozin200038!4210%8200438!54516GIS21984UNESCO91341012004!TablelScopeandcharacteristicsofgeologicalhazardriskevaluation5llll231!!!!!!!!1Fig.1Evaluationsystemofgeologicalhazardrisk62212004!Table2Indicatorsystemofgeologicalhazardriskevaluation7#$#!311s!!1fsfsl%%sjzslsjzW5556AHP44120048552Fig.2Mapshowingthegeologicalhazardriskofcollapseslandslidesanddebrisflowsinthexining-lanzou-tianshuiarea51121BrabbEEPanpeyanE.~BonillaMG.MapofLandslideSusceptibilityinSanMateoCountryCaliforniaM.USGeologicalSurvey1972.2ArattanoM.OntheUseofseismicdetectorsasmonitoringandWarningsystemfordebrisfloWsJ.Natural~azards19992023.3ArnouldM.Geological~azards-insuranceandlegalandtechnicalaspectsJ.BulletinoftheInternationalAssociationofEngineeringGeology197614263!274.4BellFG.Geological~azardsTheirAssessmentAvoidanceandMitigationM.E&FNSpoonLondon1999648.5BessonLTacherY.TheRegulationofMap-makingofNatural~azardsinIsereFrance.LandslidesMCh.Bonaarded1988.1497!1498.6BlaikeiPTCannonIDavisBWisner.AtRiskNatural~azards.People*sVulnerabilityandDisastersRoutledgeM.London1994.7BrandEW.Landslideriskassessmentin~ongKongJ.Landslide1988.1059!1074.8BrunsdenDPriorDB.SlopeInstabilityM.JohnWiley&SonsNeWYork1984.9BusoniEPSScnchisCCalzolariARomagnoli.MassMovementandErosion~azardPatternsbyMultivariateAnaly-sisofLandscapeIntegratedatatheUpperOrciaRiverValleySienaItalyCaseM.Catena1995.10.1990!2000J.20001!10.11.A.1995C.1996.12.M.1993.13.J.19932728139!154.14.J.2000114279!282.15.M.2000.16WilliamJ.PetakArthurA.AtkissionM.1993.17AzmS.Al-homoudGutaibaA.Al-masri.AnexpertsystemforanalysisanddesignofcutslopesandembankmentsJ.Environmental&EngineeringGeoscience199952157!172.18BrabbE.E.InnovationApproachestoLandslide~azardandRiskMappingA.Proc.of4thISLCToronto1984.307!323.19Carrara.MultivariateModelsForLandslidehazardevaluationJ.Math.Geology198315403!426.20CarraraA.F.GuzzettiM.CardinaliP.Reichenbach.UseofGIStechnologyinthepredictionandmonitoringof612004landslidehazardnaturaldisaster.NaturalHazards1999.23.21CharlesE.GlassRayKlimmek.RoutingdebrisflowsJ.Environmental&EngineeringGeoscience.2UU172177!191.22ChristopherS.Hitchcock.MappingliCuefactionhazardsinSimiVallyVeuturaCountyCaliforniaJ.Environmental&EngineeringGeoscience199954441!458.23ChungR.M.NaturalDisasterStudiesM.NaturalAcademyPressWashingtonD.C.1994.24FlanklinJ.PredictiveVegetationMappingGeographicmodelingofbiospatialpatternsinrelationtoenvironmentgradi-entsJ.ProgressinPhysicalGeography1995192.25G.F.WiecaorekB.A.MorganR.H.Campbell.debrisflowhazardsintheBlueRidgeofCentralVirginiaJ.Environmental&EngineeringGeoscience.2UUU613!23.26HumbertM.Risking-mapofareasexposedtomovementofsoil-FrenchzermosmapJBulletinoftheInterNationalAssociationofEngineeringGeology1976168U!82.27HongeyChen.InitiationoftheTungmendebrisfloweasternTaiwanJ.Environmental&EngineeringGeoscience199954459!473.28LucioLirerLiviaVitelli.VolcanicRiskassessmentandmapppinginthevesuvianareausingGISJ.NaturalHazards1998171.29MarcoLazzariPaoloSalvaneschi.EmbeddingageographicinformationsysteminadecisionsupportsystemforlandslidehazardmonitoringJ.NaturalHazards19992U23.3UMccallG.J.HlLamingK.J.C.AndS.C.Scott.Geohazards-NaturalandMan-madeM.ChapmanHallLondon1992.31RonaldB.ChaseKarlE.ChaseAlanE.Kehewetal.Determiningthekinematicsofslopemovementusinglow-costmonitoringandcrosssectionbalancingJ.Environmental&EngineeringGeoscience.2UU172193!2U3.32RossiG.N.HarmanciogluandV.Yevjevich.CopingWithFloodsMKluwerAcadmicPulishersDordrecht1994.33ScottB.MilesDavidK.Keeper.Evaluationofseismicslop-performancemodelsusingaregionalcasestudyJ.En-vironmental&EngineeringGeoscience.2UUU6125!39.34SevtapA.M.SemithYucemen.ReliabilityoflifelinenetworkswithmultiplesourcesunderseismichazardJ.Natu-ralhazards2UUU.211.35TurckerB.A.M.ErdikC.N.Hwang.IssuesinUrbanEarthCuakeRiskM.KluwerAcademicPublishersDordrecht1994.36TurnerD.P.KoerperH.GucinskiandC.Peterson.Monitoringglobalchangecomparisonofforestcoveresti-matesusingremotesensingandinventoryapproachesJ.EnvironmentalMonitoringandAssessment1993.26.37VanWestenC.J.A.C.SeijmonsbergenF.Mantovan.Comparinglandslidehazardevaluationthreecasesup-portsystemforlandslidehazardmonitoringJ.NaturalHazards19992U23.38.M.1996.39.J.199515355!67.4U.M.1995.41.M.1998.42.M.1998.43.J.199982.44.J.199982.45.J.2UUU11138!41.46.J.2UUU4.47.J.2UUU114323!328.48.J.2UUU1121U7!111.49.J.2UUU9245!48.7118!!878768THEORYANDAPPROACHESTOTHERISKEVALUATIONOFGEOLOGICALHAZARDSAYin-shengZ~ANGYe-chengZ~ANGchun-shanWANGin-shan.InstituteofGeomechanicsChineseacademyofGeologicalsciencesBeijing8.CenterofGeologicalarchioalmaterialsministryofLanda