央行加息的各种影响

inInterestRatesinChinaTheSecondRiseContentsDetailInformation（张晓婧）Reasoning（文娅）TheImpactonEnterprises（张游）AdverseInfluence（梁晴雯）123ContentsAnalystViews（严雯鹂）ThePositiveImpact（陈鸿）Finalprocessingandfinishing&words（王霜霜）DetailInformationThePeople'sBankofChinasaidtheone-yearlendinganddepositrateswouldgoupbyaquarterofapercentagepointsinceApril6,2011.ItemsInterestratebeforeadjustment%Interestrateafteradjustment%AdjustmentrangeDepositCurrentdeposit0.400.500.10Timedeposit3ms2.602.850.256ms2.803.050.251yr3.003.250.252yrs3.904.150.253yrs4.504.750.255yrs5.005.250.25ItemsInterestratebeforeadjustment%Interestrateafteradjustment%AdjustmentrangeLoan6ms5.605.850.251yr6.066.310.251-3yrs6.106.400.303-5yrs6.456.650.20＞5yrs6.606.800.20ItemsInterestratebeforeadjustment%Interestrateafteradjustment%AdjustmentrangeIndividualhousingprovidentfundloans≤5yrs4.004.200.20.＞5yrs4.504.700.20Clickhere•ThegoaltoliftbenchmarkinterestratesbyPBOC:•Reduceinflation:makingthepriceofcommoditieshigherandhigher•CutnegativeinterestrateCauseofinflationRisingofthepriceofbulkstockImportedinflationliquiditysurplusThegloballiquiditysurpluscausedbyQuantitativeEasinginAmericacausedtherisingofthepriceofbulkstocksuchasthepriceofcrudeoil.Liftinginterestratestokeepmoremoneyinbankislikefeedingthetigerwithmoremeatsothatitwillstayinthecageandnotgoouttohurtothers.Throughthisway,therewillbelessmoneyinthemarket.Thenliquiditysurpluswillbereducedmoreorless.That’stosay,inflationwillbereducedinthisaspect.ClickherebulkstockenergycommoditysuchascrudeoilagriculturalandsidelineproductsbasicrawmaterialClickhereInsteadofbeingcausedbydomesticmarket,Importedinflationiscausedbyforeigncountries’inflation.Indetail,theinflationofforeigncountryAinfluencesBcountrythroughinternationaltradeandcausesthepricelevelinBhigherandhigher.Inthiscase,therisingofinternationalcrudeoilpriceworsenedtheimportedinflation.ClickhereTheformertheone-yearyuandepositrateis3%andtheCPIis5%Infact,thedepositorgetanegativeinterestrateby2%.That’stosay,ifadepositorput10000yuaninthebank,hewilllose200yuanafterone-yeardeposit.Sopeoplewon’tbewillingtodepositanditwillgivemorepressuretotheinflation.Tolifttheinterestratescancutthenegativeinterestrateandalleviatethesituation.ClickhereRealEstateBusinessTherealestateissocapital-intensivethatitisoneofthemostinfluencedfields.Mostrealestatebusinessmainlyrelyoncommercialbankloansandtheaveragedebtsratioareabout70%inthisfield.Therisinginterestrateincreasedtheirfinancialcosts.Aftertheinterestratehike,thesecompanieshavetopay2.8billionmoreoneyear.AutomotiveIndustryTheautomotiveindustryisalsocapital-intensive.Worsestillmostoftheirprofitsareusedtopayinterests.Interestratehikealsoincreaseautomakers’expenditures.Theincreaseofprofitislowerthanthatofinterest,soithasanimpactonautomakers’profitability.What’smore,consumershaveexpectationsonRMBappreciationandinteresthike,sotheirconsumptiondesirewillbeweakenedintermsofpropertyandautomobiles.Muchmoreconsumerswillchoosetowaitandsee.CyclicalIndustryCyclicalindustrylikemining,chemicalindustry,constructionandbuildingmaterialsindustriesaremorelikelytobeinfluencednegatively.1)Miningiscapitalandlaborintensiveindustry,andmoremoneyneedstobeinvestedintonewmines.Interestratehikewouldincreasetheircostandburdenthemheavily.2)TheChemicalindustryalmostrunsonloan.forexample,TheinterestexpenseofInorganicalkaliindustryandOrganicchemicalrawmaterialsindustryareabout23.64%and26.65%oftheirtotalprofit.So,oncetheinterestraterise,theywouldgobankrupt.3)AccordingtothesurveyconductedbyMysteel,theaveragedebtrateisashighas60%inconstructionandbuildingmaterialsindustry.ExportIndustryAsfortheexportindustry,theincreasingcostoflaborandrawmaterial,appreciationoftheRMBandthelimitationofpollutiondischargehavealreadyburdenedthem,esp.thesemediumandsmallenterprises,letaloneinterestratehike.ClickhereAdverseInfluenceofChinaRaisesInterestRatesHardertoapplyforabankloan•manypeoplecan’taffordtobuyahouse•The‘mortgageslaves’havetoconsidertorepaythehousingloanaheadoftimeChinaRaisesInterestRates•Hardertoapplyforabankloan•HarderforpeopletoinvestorbeginabusinessChinaRaisesInterestRatesChinaRaisesInterestRatesThemarketinvestmentdeclines，•thentheemploymentgetsworst，•itishardforpeopletofindajobClickhereItcanincreasepeople'sinterestincomeondeposits.Accordingtothepolicy,one-yearbenchmarkdepositandlendinginterestrateraise0.25point,whichwillcertainlyincreasepeople'sincome.Thispolicyraisestheshort-termdepositratesanddemanddepositinterestrate,whichishelpfulforresidentdepositspreservationandhelpresidentstomeetinflation.italsocanstabilizedepositor'smind-settosomeextend.Itcanrelieveresidents'pressureonwealthwhichwouldbelost.It'shelpfultorelievetheconditionofnegativeinterestrate.Atpresent,depositorsactuallyareintheconditionthattheinterestratesareabout2%inthenegative.Thispolicyundoubtlyrelievethenegativeinterestratelevel.Nowadays,becauseofglobalclimaticanomaly,thepriceoffarmproductsandtransportisrising,whichwouldcausepressureonourrisingcommodityprices.Byadoptingthisdeflationpolicy,itwillbehelpfulforcontrollingthepric