岩土参数的概率分布拟合及Bayes方法优化

25220046JournalofNorthChinaInstituteofWaterConservancyandHydroelectricPowerVol125No12Jun12004:2003-12-08;:2004-03-10:(1973-),,,,.:1002-5634(2004)02-0051-04Bayes王俊杰,陈爱玖,姬凤玲,董金梅(河海大学岩土工程研究所,江苏南京210098):,,.))),,V2.,,Bayes.,,.:;V2;;;;Bayes:TU431:A,,.,2:[1].,;,.,,..,(n\50),,.,,,,.,,,Bayes.1,,,H0,AH0.K-SA-DV2[2].K-SA-D[3-4].V2k,H0,,H0,,.[5],n(n\50),H0,k-r-1(r).V2=Eki=1(fi-npi)2npi(1):fi;n;pi.H0,(1)V2\V2A(k-r-1)(2)AH0,H0.,V2,.2BayesBayes[5]Pd(Hi)=Pc(Hi)PZHiEPc(Hi)PZHi(3):Pd(Hi);Pc(Hi);P(Z/Hi).,Bayes[6]fd(H)=kL(H)fd(H)(4):fd(H);fc(H);L(H);k.H,u=Q]-]Hfd(H)dH(5)R2=Q]-](H-u)2fd(H)dH(6)Hfc(H)N[uc,(Rc)2],L(H)N[u*,(R*)2],fd(H)N[ud,(Rd)2],ud(Rd)2ud=u*(Rc)2+uc(R*)2(Rc)2+(R*)2(7)(Rd)2=(RcR*)2(Rc)2+(R*)2(8)3311,,,,,V2Bayes.140,207,V2.1/kPa/kPa/kPa/kPa/kPa/kPa/kPa11018312715613515914012121451815151131816419214173227186235179240141224518152511318265133151333281063361093401812346111535115183661341711342811643614944111124461115451151846716517123529196536149541131254613155511618567166171736291966361696411712646131565214186681271717372919673710974210127461415753101876812817183830126837149842101284616158531018868199181139301769371499421112947121595313189691510181240301870371710042121304715160531419069171118154130197137181014213131471616153151917116121911423116723718102421813247161625414192711913191343311873371910343151334717163541519372161419174431187438101044319134471716454151947318152017453210753810105431913548131655416195741416211046321476381110644111364813166571119677111722104732157738141074413137481416757131977913182310483219783815108441413848151685713198791919231149321979381510944141394815169581219979192023135033108038171104415140481617058192008017212317513316813819111441514148171715917201821022241052331782381911244171424911172601620282192324185333198339151134510143491117360192038411242419543319843915114451114449121746111204841725251255331985391611545111455010175611420586112625155634168639161164513146501017662182068711272517573417873919117451514750131776219207881328251858341788391911845161485015178631229261459351389401011945171495110179631230271160351490401012045181505111180641952200461,8,2.,,1(a).1(a),,2V2(H0)(:441510628;:161488622)i/kPan/fpinp/f-npi(f-npi)2/npi110~201401067633010676330106811410967-01096701000663220~302301111111011787440112132511091-21109101177159330~405301256039014347830120284119796111020421893053440~50560127053101705314012382491307461692601908401550~602501120773018260870119574015099-151509951938227660~701901091787019178740111282313496-41349601810250770~809010434780196135301045491397841352311497704880~9080103864711000000010157312499121225460H0,H0V2,2.V20101(k-r-1)=V20101(7-2-1)=V20101(4)=13127712122546,A=0101,.,,,N(44151,161492).1312Bayes3,3Bayes(u,R2).38,,1(b),,31,L(H),u*=46131818,(R*)2=121731962.1,,uc=441510628,(Rc)2=1614886222.u*,uc,Rc(7),(8),,:ud=451643,(Rd)2=1010772.3(33)/kPa/kPa/kPa/kPa/kPa/kPa/kPa11816634111140151646132148182655123165182251673616124015174619224916275617326618328148371313421718471223511828571633791943016938121443121948122453122958105331210391815441820481525541130591853252:BayesBayes,.,N(451643,1010772),,[7-9],.4(n\50),V2.,,,,Bayes,,.,,.,,,.:本文得到山东农业大学樊铭京高级实验师刘福臣教授及河海大学岩土工程研究所朱俊高教授的大力支持,在此表示衷心感谢![1][],.)))[M].:,19901[2],,.Bayes[J].,2000,(4):394-396.[3],,.[J].,2000,(3):34-39.[4].[J].,1991,13(6):84-911[5],,.[M].:,19891[6].[M].:,19891[7].[J]1,1995,(2):4-61[8].()[M].:,19921[9]GB50021-94,[S]1ProbabilityDistributionFittingandBayesMethodOptimizationonGeotechnicalParameterWANGJun-jie,CHENA-ijiu,JIFeng-ling,DONGJin_mei(ResearchInstituteofGeotechnicalEngineering,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing210098,China)Abstract:Geotechnicalparametersofgeometerialshavelargescatteringpropertyduetosomecauses1Itisveryusefultoanalyseandoptimizethegeotechnicalparametersusingthemethodsofprobabilitystatistics1Anexampleofthecohesionofasiltyclayinanareaisused1Basedontheexample,V2checkmethodinfittingprobabilitydistributionisintroducedundertheconditionoflargesamplenumber1Basedonthedistribu-tionofthelargesampleusedasthepriordistributionandthedistributionofalittlesampleusedasthelikelihoodfunction,theparametersofthepostdistributionaregivenusingBayesmethod1Thecalculatedresultsindicatethatthevariancevalueofthepostdistributionisthesmallestinthethreevariancevaluesofthepriordistribution,thelikelihoodfunctionandthepostdistribution1Thereforetheobjectofoptimizingthegeotechnicalparametersisrealized1Keywords:geotechnicalparameter;V2checkmethod;priordistribution;likelihoodfunction;postdistribution;Bayesmethod5420046