中国冬季气温变化的趋向性研究

X,,100871160,(1951/19522003/2004),,,,,,,,,2,,(),()1980,,,1980,,1980,,,1980,,1980,,,1980,,1980,,1980,,:,,1,[1](),,;,[225],,,25a(19792003),(1112)(23),,,,,,,,,,5%[627]645200610ACTAMETEOROLOGICASINICAVol.64,No.5October2006X:20051021;:200615:(40575031)(40533016):,,:E2mail:[e-mail]©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,,,,,0,1,(),,[8],(),,,?,,,,n+m-2t[8]t=x1-x2s1n+1ms=ni=1(x1i-x1)2+mi=1(x2i-x2)2n+m-2(1)x1x2,nm,t,3103160,,,,,,63,0.35,0.550.70;0.35,0.53,0.69,70%3,36(1),1136Table1LoadingsofthefirstthreeprinciplecomponentsofwintersixmonthtemperaturesforHeyuanandTonghuastation10111212310111212310.690.740.460.690.520.310.210.280.590.690.750.7720.410.23-0.250.23-0.49-0.790.88-0.340.070.29-0.23-0.2030.24-0.14-0.780.060.460.070.190.87-0.210.20-0.24-0.16,(),(),3,3,3222,(2)(),(2)()3,12,2,5165:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1),,,,1980,1980,2(2),,2,,198032()3,,198011Fig.1YearlyvariationsofthefirstprincipalcomponentofwinterhalfyeartemperaturesforHeyuan22Fig.2SameasFig.1butforthesecondprincipalcomponent(),1980,195120031951197919802003,,3:(1)33,(2)10,112,3;(3)122(,:/a)219802Table2Comparisonofthetemperaturetrendsoftheearlyandlatewinterof3differentdefinitionsforHeyuanandTonghuastationin1951-1979and1980-20031980(1)-0.07-0.040.03-0.02-0.05-0.031980(2)-0.10-0.020.08-0.01-0.07-0.051980(3)-0.01-0.03-0.02-0.04-0.08-0.041980(1)0.150.10-0.050.040.160.121980(2)0.170.08-0.090.010.160.151980(3)0.120.10-0.020.100.190.0961664©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.((1)),1980(3)3,1980,,,1980,,1980,3tTable3Comparisonofthemeansofthenormalizedtemperatureanomaliesandt2valuesoftheearlyandlatewinterforHeyuanandTonghuastationin1951-1979and1980-2003tt1980(1)-0.39-0.181.34-0.11-0.39-1.651980(2)-0.49-0.092.05-0.05-0.41-1.891980(3)-0.19-0.180.04-0.25-0.46-0.761980(1)0.470.21-1.400.140.471.891980(2)0.590.11-2.220.060.502.071980(3)0.230.21-0.050.300.561.22,,1980,,,(2)5%,10,112,3,1980,,,,1980,,,,20,,4,,160,,,,,,,198034195119791980200334,,19801980,,,,1980,,,,,1980,1,7165:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()Fig.3DistributionofthedifferenceofthetemperaturetrendcoefficientsofearlyandlatewinteroverChinain1951-1979(solid/dashlineindicatespositive/negativevalue,respectively)419802003()Fig.4SameasFig.3butfor1980-2003,,,(0.20),1980,0.091980,(-0.11),1980,-0.09(21,2),1980,,1980,,1980,,,,1980,,(),,,t160,1980,29,24,51,5%,t2.0,(5,6)5,1980,t,,3,,,3,,-2.01,5%,,,,2.05,5%1980,,6,,t,(4),,3,,2.07,5%,t,,,,-2.22,5%,,1980,,;,1980,,;,81664©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()Fig.5DistributionoftvaluesofdifferencesofaveragedearlyandlatewintertemperatureanomaliesoverChinain1951-1979(solid/dashlineindicatespositive/negativevalue,respectively)619802003t()Fig.6DistributionoftvaluesofdifferencesofaveragedearlyandlatewintertemperatureanomaliesoverChinain1980-2003(solid/dashlineindicatespositive/negativevalue,respectively),,30(19601990),t160()()(7)7,tt19805%,1980,7160t()t()Fig.7Variationsofthelargest(solidline)andsmallest(dashline)tvaluesatthe160stationsinChinawiththeturningyear5160(1951/19522003/2004),,:(1),(2)1980,,;,(3)1980,,;,,,(5070N)[7,9],,,,,,9165:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[7],,(PDO),,2070[10211]PDOPDO(),,,(),,[12],,,,[1],,..,2004,30(11):43246HuGuifang,LiYun,LiDeping.Changesofmaximumandmin2imumtemperatureforrecent100years.MeteorMon(inChi2nese),2004,30(11):43246[2],..,1996,54(4):5012507XieZhuang,CaoHongxing.Theasymmetrictrendofchangeinmaximumandminimumtemperature.ActaMeteorSinica(inChinese),1996,54(4):5012507[3]KarlTR,etal.Asymmetrictrendsofdailymaximumandmin2imumtemperature.BullAmerMeteorSoc,1993,74(6):100721023[4],..,1997,57(4):4182428ZhaiPanmao,RenFumin.DetectionoftrendsinChinaspre2cipitationextremes.ActaMeteorSinica(inChinese),1997,57(4):4182428[5],..,1999,10(2):1512159JiangZhihong,DingYuguo.RenewedstudyonthewarmingprocessofShanghaiduringthepast100years.QuartJApplMe2teorSci(inChinese),1999,10:1512159[6]HansenJE,etal.AcloserlookatUnitedStatesandglobalsur2facetemperaturechange.JGeophysRes,2001,106:23947223963[7]HuY,TungK,LiuJ.AclosercomparisonofearlyandlatewinteratmospherictrendsintheNorthern2Hemisphere.JCli2mate,2005,18:292422936[8].().:,2004.298ppHuangJiayou.StatisticalAnalysisandForecastingMethodsinMeteorology.Beijing:ChinaMeteorologicalPress,2004.298pp[9]WallaceJM,ThompsonDWJ.Annularmodesandclimateprediction.PhysicsToday,2002,55:29233[10],,..,2005,48(4):7892797YangXiuqun,XieQian,ZhuYimin,eta1.Decadal2to2inter2decadalvariabilityofprecipitationinNorthChinaandassociatedatmosphericandoceanicanomalypatterns.ChineseJGeophys(inChinese),2005,48:7892797[11],.,:.,2005,27(3):20231RongXinyao,YangXiuqun.Theupper2oceanresponseandad