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当前位置:首页 > 商业/管理/HR > 信息化管理 > Final-毕业论文:中国移动客户流失预警模型的研究及应用
硕士研究生学位论文题目:中国移动客户流失预警模型研究及应用姓名:张少辉学号:10528437院系:光华管理学院专业:IMBA研究方向:数据挖掘导师:王汉生二00七年四月版权申明任何收存和保管本论文各种版本的单位和个人,未经本论文作者授权,不得将本论文转借他人并复印、抄录、拍照、或以任何方式传播。否则,引起有碍作者著作权益之问题,将可能承担法律责任。II摘要随着中国移动通信市场竞争程度的日益加剧,客户争夺成为各家移动通信运营商竞争的焦点,所以,如何有效地预测和防范客户流失就变得越来越重要。本文通过对中国移动某地市分公司的用户消费数据库进行深入研究,旨在发现流失客户在其流失前的消费特征,从而帮助移动通信运营商能够未雨绸缪地采取针对性的措施达到客户挽留的目的。我们的研究发现:(1)中国移动的三大品牌中,全球通客户流失率最低,动感地带次之,神州行最高,在同一品牌中,消费量越高,流失概率越小;(2)七种费用对于客户流失的影响是显著的,其中基本月租、本地基本费用和GPRS通信费用与流失概率负相关;而IP费用、来电显示费用、彩铃费用和USSD费用则与流失概率正相关;(3)我们还研究出了一种可以用来对客户进行有效细分的工具——客户流失预测矩阵,利用该矩阵可以有效地计算出各类客户的流失概率。关键词:客户流失逻辑回归客户挽留中国移动IIIChinaMobile’sCustomerAbsenceAlertingModel:ResearchandApplication[ShaohuiZhang][IMBA]Directedby[HanshengWang][Abstract]WiththecompetitionofChinamobilecommunicationmarketbecomingsevererandseverer,thecustomerresourceisemphasizedbymoreandmorecompanies,asaresult,howtoalertandpreventcustomerabsencewouldbeameaningfultopicforcompaniesincludemobiletelecommunicationcarriers.ThisresearchistryingtofindaneffectivemethodforChinaMobiletobuildanalertingsystemforcustomerabsencebasedononeofsubsidies’consumptiondatabaseofChinaMobile.WearehopingtheoutputsofthisresearchcouldhelpChinaMobiletofindthecustomerswhoaremostlikelytoleavepriortotheirabsenceandadoptsomeeffectiveretentionmeasures.Atlast,wegotthreekeyfindings:(1)Intermsofthecustomers’absenceprobabilitybybrands,Shenzhouxing,M-zoneandGotonearebecominglowerandlower,accordingtothecustomerswithsamebrand,itseemsthatmoreconsumptionleadstolessprobabilitytoleave.(2)Sevencategoriesoffeesarefoundsignificanttoresponsewhichiscustomerswillleave,threecategoriesofthem,whicharebasicrent,localbasicfeeandGPRSfee,arenegativecorrelatedtotheabsence,onthecontrary,theotherfourcategorieswhichareIPfee,calleridentitydisplayfee,colorringfeeandUSSDfeearepositivecorrelatedtotheabsence.(3)Wealsofoundaneffectivetool-customersegmentation&absencealertingmatrix,bythismatrix,wecancalculatetheabsenceprobabilityofmanykindsofcustomerseffectively.Keywords:[CustomerAbsence][LogisticRegression][CustomerRetention][ChinaMobile]IV目录第1章引言............................................................................................................-1-1.1研究背景....................................................................................................-1-1.2研究意义和研究目的................................................................................-2-1.3相关研究....................................................................................................-3-第2章研究模型....................................................................................................-4-2.1本研究理论构想........................................................................................-4-2.2研究模型....................................................................................................-4-第3章数据介绍....................................................................................................-5-3.1数据来源....................................................................................................-5-3.2变量介绍....................................................................................................-6-第4章描述性分析................................................................................................-7-4.1连续性变量分析........................................................................................-8-4.1.1样本总体连续性变量分析.................................................................-8-4.1.2全球通用户连续性变量分析.............................................................-9-4.1.3动感地带用户连续性变量分析.........................................................-9-4.1.4神州行客户连续性变量分析...........................................................-10-4.1.5对比分析...........................................................................................-11-4.2离散性变量分析......................................................................................-12-4.2.1总体样本离散性变量分析...............................................................-12-4.2.2全球通客户离散性变量分析...........................................................-13-4.2.3动感地带客户离散性变量分析.......................................................-14-4.2.4神州行客户离散性变量分析...........................................................-14-4.2.5对比分析...........................................................................................-15-第5章逻辑回归模型分析..................................................................................-15-5.1模型一:基于总体样本的逻辑回归模型..............................................-16-5.1.1显著性变量选择...............................................................................-16-5.1.2逻辑回归分析...................................................................................-16-5.2模型二:基于神州行样本的逻辑回归模型..........................................-20-5.2.1显著性变量选择...............................................................................-20-5.2.2逻辑回归分析...................................................................................-20-5.3模型三:基于动感地带样本的逻辑回归模型......................................-21-V5.4模型四:基于全球通样本的逻辑回归模型.......................................
本文标题:Final-毕业论文:中国移动客户流失预警模型的研究及应用
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