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201112(378)No.12,2011CenearlNo.378(,1XXX)::,,,,,::,,:;;;EJL:E5;2E5;8C25;C32:A:1-7(2011)12-5118!,,,,,,,,:20110925:,,,Emali:hde@hkmgo.vnc#,,,Emali:h~g@hkm.ago.vnc#,378!:1.,:()()(),,(,2007)(),,,,:,,,(Qina,1999)(),,,(),:,;,,,,,!19%,20()4or()¹,,,,,2.,,º,(PBc(2009);FyezigoluetaL¹º2.3,,,,,20n123(2009)),4919732005,,,(,),?,200416%-%,¹,,,(,1999),..////////////////:---l3.,,()(1,S1S2),,,(Pl),,(QZ,P2),,)(Q2Ql),,/0,,(),¹378(Q2Ql),,(),(,Ql)4.,,(,(),()),,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,(Qinetal.(2005),Geiger(2006),uernsandMain(2007),Diekinsonanduu(2007)),,,,,,,,,!:FerixasandRoehet(2X()8),Porte:andxu(2009)Chenetal.(2011),:,,,()()111251.N,N,()(D-)(L-)(a),(E!)(B-)(,)!¹i:H-Max{r,L-+rE-+rraD-+roB-+rnrNR-rJD-C(D-,L-,E-)}(l),Di,,Bir,,r-,r,rr,nrrC(D-,L-,E-),NR-i,:NR-=D-L-E-aD-B-(2)(2)(1),:H=/xlr,L+rE+r_aD+rLB+r.(DL;EaDB;)g,,Ei,Bir-DC(D-,L-,E-)}(3)L-!D-!E-B-,:L-:r-=rnr+C-:(D-,L-,E-)(4)(D-,L-,E-)L-,:,r,:nrr(,)C-:(D-,L-,E-),D-:a#rr+(la)rnr=r-+C,(D-,L-,E-)(5)(5),:E:B-:rrnr+C-:(D!,L-,E-)(6)(7)(7),,,,C(D-,L-,E-),,:C(D-,L-,E-)=(#D{+!L:+/#E:(8)¹,,(),378!::,(4),(5)(6),,:L(r,rr)(9):}[a(r:rnr)+rnrrd](10):E:(rrn:)/:(,r,:L-d(r,)/,L.=(r,rr):(12)(r,)(r,),:D:(r)=),D)=[a(:;rnr)+rrJ2(13)(r-)(rd),r,,nrr,(2),,NR-,:!!,,,:NR-+s(rJ,r;)=T(r,,rr)(14),5(rd,nr;)(r-nrr),S(,r)/nr0,:rT(rz,r,),,ar(;,,rr)/r;o,nrr:i1/id(rl)!,LIS(rnr)/Lr=h(rnr,:)*rt,;nr:(15)(16)D=1i::D(r)==7a(rrnr)+rnrr8/r=d(a,rr,rr,)*ar(17)(18)20H12:NR-+s(rd,r#r)=T(r-,rnr)(19)NR-(2),(19):F(#)=NR-+s(rJ,rr)T(r,,r)[(1a)D-L-E-B-]+S(rJ,rr)T(r,,rnr)(20),()(-),,(!),,,(),nrr,,,nrr,2.,(),:,,,,,,,,,:1:,,(),1:!,!,HenadWnag(2011)A,,,,,,.378,,J2:,,4:;;;2.1:,,2.1:,,,2.1HenadWnag(2011)B,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,2.2:,,,,,2.2:,,2.2HenadWnag(2011)C2.1,,,(),,!,,,,,2011129:,,,,,,2.3:,,,(),,(23)SlS2(2),EZ,,LL*2LL*32.3:(2),,,,2.3HenadWang(2011)D,,,,,,,,,,,,,378nrr2.4:,,2.4,[SlS2(3)2,(3,EZ),,,,,2.2,3.,1:1111J2.1112.2222.3332.444,,,,,,,,(2)))(3)))++++++++++++++++++4.l,(calibarotin)HeandWang(2011)E44:,,,201112!,,,,,(OLS),GARcH(M),,,,!,()2004or30201011(2004or29),::!!¹,()!!:,,,,:,,:,,,GARCH,,,,,,,,1%,¹,,,(mutliocllineyt)1:3780.61%,0.19%(,),,,,!,20.650.200.510.1600.08GARCH0.580.170.330.0.030.060.610.190.420.#0.020.07!,,,:,,,,,,,:,:20111213,;,,:,;,;,;,(PBC,2005),2004,,,,,?,(),,?,,,(),(),,,(3),,(),,:,,,¹:,,,,,1]l,56,,200912](PBC),56,,(20(),2o09Q2138,56,56,2005¹,3%l4378=4],6,,38,20ll.hntt:LZsct.nococnt01103/08/eontent267482.ht=58!,56,,199916],56,,271123.=78Abiad,Abd,Detrache,EeanadTerssel,Thien,,/ANewDatbaaseofFinnaeialRoefmsr0,IMFWokringpal2er(2X()8)WP/08/266.182Chen,Honi,Chen,QinayingnadGelaeh,Steafn,/ThelmplemnetationOfMnoetOPlieyinChina0,WokringpaperintheSeenodAnnualIntemationalCoFeerneeonhteChineseEeonmoy(2011),HongKOngnIstituteOfMonetRe-esalch.[98Diekinson,Dadnaduu,Jia,/TheRealEeffet,OfMonetlieyinChina:AnEmpiriealAnalysis0,ChinaEeonom-ieReview(2X()7),18,87111.110]Feioglu,Tarhna,Porter,NhatnanadTaka,Eldo,/InteerstRateUbeaztioninChina0,IMFWkoringper(229),09/171,WhasingtonDC#[r,Miehael,/MonetPolieyinChina(19942004):Taesrts,nsIurtmenstnadTheirEeffctiveness0,WurzbuEeonontiePape(2006),No.66.[12]He,Dongnadpuawels,unert,/Whatpmmpsthtepoeple.5BnakOfChinaotChnaItsMonetpolieyStnace?Evi-deneeorfnlaDiseerteChoieeModel,.,HKMAWorkingPasr0806(2X()8),HongKOngMonetayrAuthoriyt.[132He,DonadWang,Honglni,/DualtekinteerstartesandhteeonduetofmonetyrlieyinChina0,HKIMRWOkringPaPesrNo.21/2011.[14]Fna,nhgzennadzhnag,Chu,/BendSeenattion:hteCaseofChina.5ReMkarets0,JoumalofBnakingndaFinnaee(2X()7),31(27)939954.15]Feras,XaviernadRochet,eJnaCharles,/MieoereonmoiesofBnaki0,Cnad2rid,Massaehusetts,Mperss(2X()8).[16]CarciaHeerror,AlieianadGiraJin,Eri,/China.5MonetayrPolieyCommnureation:MoneyMkarestNoronlyUs-etn,ThAlosUndesrnatd0,WorkingPaperintheSeeondAnnualIntemationalCoFereneeontheChineseEeonomy(2011).[178Coodrfiend,Mvarinnadpasrda,Ewsar,/AFarmeorkofrIndependentMonetaJ,polieyinChina0,IMFWokringPa-pe(2),06/,nItmeationalMnoetFund.[18]Uubach,ThomasnadWilli~,John,/MeasuringhteEquliibrimuInteerstRate0,FinnaeenadEeonomiesDiseussionSeries(2X()l),2X()l56,BoatllOfGovemosrofhteFedearlResevreSysrme(U.5.).=192Maino,Rooflnaduer!,Bem,/China:SertnhgteningMnoetPolieyImvlementation.0IMFWokringper(2X()7),N.o07/14.[202Ngasi,ShitonadWnag,Hong,/MonetMkaretopeotionsinChina:MonetayrPolieyorPoliey?0,BnakofJa-pnaWokriPPaerSeries(2X()7)No.07E13.121]Porter,NhatnanadXu,nTgneg,/WhatDvesChina,5IntebrnakMkaret?0,FWokringPapesr(2009),wP/09/189.[222Qina,Yini,/ThenIstiuttionalFoundationsofChina.sMkaretTrallsition0,inBo,pleskovieandOJsephstiitz,eds.,Poreeedin,fhteWorldBnak,5AnnualConefnereeonDevelopmentEeonomies(1999).(http:/).123]Qin,Duo,Quisi,pilipinas,He,XinhuanadLiuShi,/MdoelingMoneyartTnsssionnadPolieyinChina0,JoumalofPolieyMdoelling27(2005)157175.[24JShu,ChnagnadBrinaNg,/MonetayrsnateenadlieyobjeetivesinChina:aNxaartiveApporaeh0,HKMAehinaE-n12eonomiesIsues(2010),HongKongMonetAuhtoriyt.[258Zhou,Xioachuna,/DevelopmentOfChina.sterbnakMkaret0,SeehathteopeningeemonyofhteShnahgaiClearingHouse,Shnahgai,28Novener,25.()122b.P.dfAbstract:China
本文标题:利率双轨制与中国货币政策实施
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