Macro2Macroeconomic Data and Variables宏观经济学(南开大学,龚

Lecture2MacroeconomicDataandVariablesMacroeconomicsI.MacroeconomicVariablesGrossDomesticProduct,GDPDefinition：•GDPisthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedbyacountrywithinacertainperiod(aquarterorayear).I.MacroeconomicVariablesGrossDomesticProduct,GDP(continued)Theimportance•Thevariablereflectstheeconomicactivitylevelwithinacountry.•Theso-calledeconomicgrowthisreferredtothegrowthinGDP.•Theso-calledpercapitaGDPisoftenusedformeasuringthelivingstandardofacountry.•Itisperhapsthemostimportantvariableinmacroeconomics.I.MacroeconomicVariablesGrossDomesticProduct,GDP(continued)Here，theso-calledfinalproductisreferredtothoseproductsthatarenotusedasintermediateinput.Forexample,...Inaddition,weshallalsodistinguishnominalGDP(calculatedoncurrentprice)andrealGDP(calculatedonfixed,baseyear,price).I.MacroeconomicVariablesPriceandInflationInflationisanotherproblemthatwillbeconcernedinmacroeconomics.Higherinflationmaybringproblemtotheeconomy.Theinflationrateisameasureofthedegreeofinflationproblem.Itisreferredtothegrowthrateofpricelevel.I.MacroeconomicVariablesPriceandInflation(continued)Therearemainlythreestatisticindicestomeasurepricelevel:•GDPdeflator;•consumerpriceindex;•producerpriceindex.I.MacroeconomicVariablesUnemploymentandUnemploymentRateTheunemploymentisanotherimportantproblemthatisconcernedinmacroeconomics.Unemploymentrateisthemeasureoftheextentofunemploymentproblem.Thisistheratioofunemploymenttototallaborforce.II.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesWhyImportant?Apropermacroeconomictheoryshouldbeabletoexpressthestylizedfactorsasweobservedfromtheempiric.II.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesEconomicGrowthandBusinessCyclesAneconomyisgenerallyingrowthdespitethatsometimesGDPmightdecrease.TheaveragegrowthrateofGDPisabout3%incurrentdevelopedcountries.Economicgrowthoftenappearstobeperiodicallycyclic.Thiscyclicpropertyisoftenreferredtobebusinesscycles.II.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesFigure1:ThegrowthrateinrealGDPinU.S.1961-2003II.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesEconomicGrowthandUnemploymentRateTherehasbeenasignificantrelationbetweeneconomicgrowthandunemployment.Generallyahighgrowthoftenimplieslowunemployment.ThisrelationisoftenreferredtoOkun’slaw.ItisnamedaccordingtoOkun,anAmericaneconomistwhofindthisrelationempirically.II.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesFigure2:TheGrowthRateversusChangeinUnemploymentRateII.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesInflationandUnemploymentIfweobservethedatabefore1970’s,wefindasignificanttrade-offbetweeninflationandunemployment.Higherinflationoftenindicateslowunemployment.ThisrelationisoftenreferredtoPhillipscurve.ItisnamedafteraBritisheconomistPhillipswhofindthisrelationempirically.II.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesInflationandUnemployment(continued)ThisfindingisonceregardedtobeavictoryofKeynesianeconomicsbecause•itcanbeexpressedbyKeynesianmacroeconomics•italsoprovidesafoundationfortheeffectiveapplicationofKeynesianmacroeconomicpolicy.II.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesInflationandUnemployment(continued)However,whenweextendourobservationtothecurrentperiod,wefindthatthistrade-offbecomeunclear.SuchadeviationfromthetraditionalPhillip’scurvealsoaffectthedebatesamongeconomists.II.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesFigure3:InflationRateversusunemployment,1961–2003,USII.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesInflationandUnemployment(continued)SuchadeviationfromthetraditionalPhillip’scurvealsoaffectsthedebatesamongeconomists.However,ifweorganizethedataintothreesamples,wemayfindmultiplePhillip’scurve.ThisindicatesthatthePhillip’scurvecouldbeshifted.II.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesFigure4:InflationRateversusunemployment,1961-1969，1994-2003II.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesFigure5:InflationRateversusunemployment,1970-1973，1984-1993II.SomeStylizedFactors,EvidencefromDevelopedCountriesFigure6:InflationRateversusunemployment,1974-1983III.NationalIncomeAccountTherearetwoapproachestomeasureGDPTheexpenditureapproachTheincome(orvalueaddedapproach)Theoretically,thesetwoapproachshouldgivethesameresultIII.NationalIncomeAccountExpenditureApproachtoCalculateGDPThisisthewaytocalculatetheGDPvialookingathowthefinalgoodsandservicesareused.TheGDPcompositionintermsoftheirusage:•consumption•investment•governmentexpenditure•netexport(export-import)•inventorychangeIII.NationalIncomeAccountExpenditureApproachtoCalculateGDP(continued)Remark:Theconsumption,investmentandgovernmentexpendituredefinedaboveincludesthepurchasesontheimportedgoods.Thisisthereasonwhyimportmustbedeductedfromtheexport.III.NationalIncomeAccountIncomeApproachtoCalculateGDPThisisthewaytolookatvalueaddedofallproducedfinaloutput.Thereforeitmightalsobecalledthevalueaddedapproach.III.NationalIncomeAccountIncomeApproachtoCalculateGDP(continued)III.NationalIncomeAccountIncomeApproachtoCalculateGDP(continued