巴罗 宏观经济学 ppt 11

MacroeconomicsChapter111Inflation,MoneyGrowth,andInterestRatesChapter11MacroeconomicsChapter112Cross-CountryDataonInflationandMoneyGrowthKeyequation:Ms=P·L(Y,i)Twopossiblereasonsofinflation:DecreaseofrealdemandformoneyIncreaseofmoneysupplyMacroeconomicsChapter113Cross-CountryDataonInflationandMoneyGrowthInflationratesandmoneygrowthratesfor82countriesfrom1960to2000.Wemeasurethepricelevel,P,bytheconsumerpriceindex(CPI).WeusetheCPI,ratherthantheGDPdeflator,becauseofdataavailability.MacroeconomicsChapter114MacroeconomicsChapter115MacroeconomicsChapter116MacroeconomicsChapter117Cross-CountryDataonInflationandMoneyGrowthHighlightsTheinflationratewasgreaterthan0forallcountriesfrom1960to2000Thegrowthrateofnominalcurrencywasgreaterthan0forallcountriesfrom1960to2000.Thereisabroadcross-sectionalrangefortheinflationratesandthegrowthratesofmoney.MacroeconomicsChapter118Cross-CountryDataonInflationandMoneyGrowthHighlightsThemedianinflationratefrom1960to2000was8.3%peryear,with30countriesexceeding10%.Forthegrowthrateofnominalcurrency,themedianwas11.6%peryear,with50above10%MacroeconomicsChapter119Cross-CountryDataonInflationandMoneyGrowthHighlightsInmostcountries,thegrowthrateofnominalcurrency,M,exceededthegrowthrateofprices.Foracountrythathasahighinflationrateinoneperiodtohaveahighinflationrateinanotherperiod.Strongpositiveassociationbetweentheinflationrateandthegrowthrateofnominalcurrency.MacroeconomicsChapter1110Cross-CountryDataonInflationandMoneyGrowthMacroeconomicsChapter1111Cross-CountryDataonInflationandMoneyGrowthOnelessonfromthecross-countrydataisthat,tounderstandinflation,wehavetoincludemoneygrowthasacentralpartoftheanalysis.MiltonFriedman’sfamousdictum:“Inflationisalwaysandeverywhereamonetaryphenomenon.”MacroeconomicsChapter1112InflationandInterestRatesActualandExpectedInflationLetπbetheinflationrate.Theinflationratefromyear1toyear2,π1,istheratioofthechangeinthepriceleveltotheinitialpricelevel.π1=(P2−P1)/P1π1=∆P1/P1MacroeconomicsChapter1113InflationandInterestRatesActualandExpectedInflationπ1=(P2−P1)/P1π1=∆P1/P1π1·P1=P2−P1P2=(1+π1)·P1MacroeconomicsChapter1114InflationandInterestRatesActualandExpectedInflationSincethefutureisunknown,householdshavetoformforecastsorexpectationsofinflation.Denotebyπe1theexpectationoftheinflationrateπ1.Theactualinflationrate,π1,willusuallydeviatefromitsexpectation,πe1,andtheforecasterror—orunexpectedinflation—willbenonzero.MacroeconomicsChapter1115InflationandInterestRatesActualandExpectedInflationHouseholdstrytokeeptheerrorsassmallaspossible.Therefore,theyuseavailableinformationonpastinflationandothervariablestoavoidsystematicmistakes.Expectationsformedthiswayarecalledrationalexpectations.MacroeconomicsChapter1116InflationandInterestRatesRealandNominalInterestRatesThedollarvalueofassetsheldasbondsrisesovertheyearbythefactor1+i1.Theinterestratei1isthedollarornominalinterestratebecausei1determinesthechangeovertimeinthenominalvalueofassetsheldasbonds.MacroeconomicsChapter1117InflationandInterestRatesMacroeconomicsChapter1118InflationandInterestRatesRealandNominalInterestRatesTheRealinterestratetobetherateatwhichtherealvalueofassetsheldasbondschangesovertime.dollarassetsinyear2=(dollarassetsinyear1)·(1+i1)P2=P1·(1+π1)MacroeconomicsChapter1119InflationandInterestRatesRealandNominalInterestRates(dollarassetsinyear2/P2)=(dollarassetsinyear1/P1)·(1+i1)/(1+π1)realassetsinyear2=(realassetsinyear1)·(1+i1)/(1+π1)MacroeconomicsChapter1120InflationandInterestRatesRealandNominalInterestRatesSincetherealinterestrate,denotedbyr1,istherateatwhichassetsheldasbondschangeinrealvalue:(1+r1)=(1+i1)/(1+π1)MacroeconomicsChapter1121InflationandInterestRatesRealandNominalInterestRatesr1=i1−π1−r1·π1thecrossterm,r1·π1,whichtendstobesmall;realinterestrate=nominalinterestrate−inflationrater1=i1−π1MacroeconomicsChapter1122InflationandInterestRatesFisherEquationi=r+πFisherEffectiπMacroeconomicsChapter1123InflationandInterestRatesTheRealInterestRateandIntertemporalSubstitutionWhentheinflationrate,π,isnotzero,itistherealinterestrate,r,ratherthanthenominalrate,i,thatmattersforintertemporalsubstitution.MacroeconomicsChapter1124InflationandInterestRatesActualandExpectedRealInterestRatesTheexpectedinflationratedeterminestheexpectedrealinterestrate,retret=it−πetexpectedrealinterestrate=nominalinterestrate−expectedinflationrateMacroeconomicsChapter1125InflationandInterestRatesMeasuringexpectedinflationAskasampleofpeopleabouttheirexpectations.Usethehypothesisofrationalexpectations,whichsaysthatexpectationscorrespondtooptimalforecasts,giventheavailableinformation.Thenusestatisticaltechniquestogaugetheseoptimalforecasts.UsemarketdatatoinferexpectationsofinflationMacroeconomicsChapter1126InflationandInterestRatesMeasuringexpectedinflationLivingstonSurveyAskasampleofpeople（50economists）abouttheirexpectations.MacroeconomicsChapter1127InflationandInterestRatesMacroeconomicsChapter1128InflationandInterestRatesMacroeconomicsChapter1129InflationandInterestRatesMeas