2015美国数学建模竞赛优秀论文

ForofficeuseonlyT1________________T2________________T3________________T4________________TeamControlNumber35943ProblemChosenDForofficeuseonlyF1________________F2________________F3________________F4________________2015MathematicalContestinModeling(MCM/ICM)SummarySheetInordertomeasureacountry'slevelofsustainabledevelopmentprecisely,weestablishaevaluationsystembasedonAHP(AnalyticHierarchyProcess).Weclassifyquantitiesofinfluentialfactorsintothreeparts,includingeconomicdevelopment,socialdevelopmentandthesituationofresourcesandenvironment.Thenweselect6to8significantindicatorsofeverypart.Withregardtothepracticalsituationofthecountrywearefocusingon,weareabletobuildjudgmentmatrixesandobtaintheweightofeveryindicator.Vialinerweightingmethod,wegivethedefinitionofcomprehensiveindexofsustainabledevelopment.Referringtoclassificationsgivenbyexperts,wecanjudgewhetherthiscountryissustainableornotprecisely.Intask2,wechooseCambodiaasourtargetnation.Weobtaindetaileddatafromtheworldbank.Usingstandardizeddataofthiscountry,viatheprocessabove,wesuccessfullygetthecomprehensiveindexis0.48,whichmeansitssustainabledevelopmentabilityisweak.Wenoticethatindustrialvalueadded,enrollmentrateinhigherlearninginstitutionsandotherfiveindicatorscontributemosttothesustainabledevelopmentaccordingtoourmodel,sowemakepoliciesandplanswhichfocusontheimprovementoftheseaspects,includingdevelopingindustryandimprovingsocialsecurity.WealsorecommendICMtoassistantCambodiaintheseaspectsinordertooptimizethedevelopment.Tosolvetask3,weconsiderseveralunpredictablefactorsthatmayinfluencesustainabledevelopment,suchaspolitics,climatechangesandsoon.Aftertakingallofthesefactorsintoconsideration,wepredictthevalueofeveryindicatorin2020,2030and2034accordingtoourplans.Aftercalculating,wearedelightedthatthecomprehensiveindexhasgrownupto0.91,meaningthiscountryisquitesustainable.Thisalsoreflectsthatourmodelandplansarereasonableandcorrect.Team#35943Page1of20Contents1Introductionandrestatement1.1Background……………………………………………………………………21.2Restatementofproblems…………………………………………………….....21.3Anoverviewofsustainabledevelopment…………………………………........32Model2.1Introduction………………………………………………………………………32.2Assumptions……………………………………………………………………32.3Indicators………………………………………………………………………42.4Theestablishmentofmodel…………………………………………………52.5Classificationsandevaluations………………………………………………63Verificationandapplication3.1Verificationofindicatorsselected…………………………………………….73.2Judgmentmatrixandweight…………………………………………………..83.3Originalandstandardizeddata………………………………………………113.4IndexesofCambodiain2010…………………………………………………113.5ClassificationofCambodia……………………………………………………143.6Plansandpolicies………………………………………………………………153.7Predictionsof2020,2030and2034……………………………………………164Conclusion4.1Strengthsandweakness………………………………………………………194.2Extension………………………………………………………………………19ReferencesTeam#35943Page2of20IndexesDetermineWhetherItIsSustainable1Introductionandrestatement1.1BackgroundEachyearthenumberofhumanbeingsincreases,buttheearthresourcesisfinite.ThegrowingstressonEarth’senvironmentandbiologicalsystemareextremelyapparentnow.Thepercapitaoccupancyofresourcesofsomecountriestendtobelittle,andmaintainingnormallifehasbeendifficultforthem.Forothercountries,it’salsobecomingachallengeforthemtoachieveabalancebetweengrowingpopulationandlimitedresourceseventhoughtheircurrentsituationsarenotbad.Energyisnecessaryfordailylife.Now,primarysourcesofenergyaremainlynon-renewable,suchasnaturalgas,oilandsoon.Atpresent,technologyisnotthatmature,sowearenotabletomakethebestofourpreciousresources.Meanwhile,wearedisappointedtoseethatthepollutionarequiteseriousallovertheworld,includinggaspollution,waterpollutionandsoilpollution,resultinginvariousdisappointingconsequences.Theseenvironmentproblemsthreatenthesurvivalofhumanbeings.Asaresultofthedifferenceofscienceandtechnology,thespeedofeconomicdevelopmentvariesalotamongcountries.Also,thegapbetweenrichandpoorcountriesisbecomingevenbigger,whichalsohasanegativeeffectonthejointdevelopmentofthewholeworld.Thatistosay,it’snotconductivetothestabilityoftheworld.1.2RestatementofproblemsInordertocreateamoresustainableworld,ICMwillprovideassistancefordevelopingcountries.AsamemberofICM,wewilldosomethingtohelpthecompanytomakeabetterdecision.Wewillbuildamodelandstandardforjudgingacountry’sdegreeofsustainableTeam#35943Page3of20development.Themodelchoosessociety,economy,resourcesandenvironmentfordataanalysis.WeselectCambodiafromleast-developed-countriesastargetnation.Basedonthemodelanalysis,wecreatea20yearsustainabledevelopmentplanandpredictthechangewillhappeninthefuture20years.Besides,someadditionalfactorssuchasnaturaldisasteranddevelopmentaidarealsoconsideredbyus.1.3AnoverviewofsustainabledevelopmentInordertofacechallengesasmentioned,leavingarelativebetterenvironmenttoournextgeneration,theconceptofsustainabledevelopmentcameupin1972.Sustainabledevelopmentisdevelopmentthatmeetstheneedsofthepresentwithoutcompromisingtheabilityoffuturegenerationstomeettheirownneeds.Itcontainswithinittwokeyconcepts[1]:●theconceptof“needs”,inparticu