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Chapter20OverviewofMacroeconomics黄新飞InternationalBusinessSchool,Sun-YatsenUniversity2课题思考什么是宏观经济学?你眼中的宏观经济是什么?Case1:U.S.RealGDP,1929-1994193019905,000YearRealGDP(billionsofdollars,1987prices)TheGreatDepressionWorldWarIIPostwardemobilizationVietnamWarFirstoilshockTightMoneySupply-sidetaxcutsJoblessRecovery4Case2:TheNorthoftheBorderValueofYenfallsrelativetodollarFEDERALRESERVEAfallinconsumerconfidenceFederalReserveBankraisesinterestrates56Case3EconomicGrowth7KeyConceptsofMacroeconomicsMacroeconomicsisthestudyofthebehavioroftheeconomyasawhole.Itexaminestheoveralllevelofanation’soutput,employmentandpricesMicroeconomicsstudiesindividualprices,quantitiesandmarkets8TheRelationofMicroeconomicsandMacroeconomicsmicroeconomicfoundationofmacroeconomicDifferent:OveralleconomyandindividualbehaviorInconditionoffullemploymentfallacyofcompositionandfallacyofdecomposition9TheBirthofMacroeconomicsDatesbacktothelate1700s.RootedinthelaissezfairewritingsofAdamSmith,DavidRicardo,andJeanBaptisteSay.ClassicalEconomics(古典经济学)10TheClassicalEconomistsMeettheGreatDepression(经济大萧条)Thestockmarketcrashesin1929.GrossDomesticProductfellbyalmostathirdbetween1929and1933.25%oftheworkforcewasunemployed.Businessinvestmentfellfromabout$16billionin1929to$1billionby1933.牌子上写道:“100美元可买下这辆轿车,在股市上丧失了一切,急需现钞。”11TheBirthofKeynesianEconomics(凯恩斯主义)John.Maynard.Keynes(1883-1946)12Thisfiscalstimuluslaidthefoundationfortheemergenceofstagflation–simultaneoushighinflationandhighunemployment.TheKeynesianDilemmaTheRiseofMonetarismTheFoundationofStagflation(滞胀)MiltonFriedman(1912-2006)13OriginalStageBirthStageDevelopingStageClassicalEconomicsKeynesianMonetarismPetty:NationalSurplusAdamSmith:InvisibleHandKeynes:TheGeneralTheoryOfEmployment,InterestRateandMoneySamuelsonNewCambridgeGreatDepressionStagflationSay:ThelawofSupplyFriedman:MonetarismLucas:ExpectationRational1750S1860S1930S1970S1970S14CentralMacroeconomicQuestionWhydooutputandemploymentsometimesfall,andhowcanunemploymentbereduced?Whatarethesourcesofpriceinflation,andhowcanitbekeptundercontrol?Howcananationincreaseitsrateofeconomicgrowth?15MeasuredbygrowthintheGrossDomesticProductor“GDP.”GDPisdefinedasthemarketvalueofallthefinalgoodsandservicesproducedinacountryinagivenyear.Nominalvs.RealGDPPotentialGDPMacroProblem#1:TheRateofEconomicGrowth16MacroProblem#2:UnemploymentTheunemploymentrateismeasuredasthenumberofunemployedpersonsdividedbythenumberofpeopleinthelaborforce.17UnemploymentRateSince1900ActualunemploymentAverageunemploymentPercentageoflaborforceunemployed1900191019201930194019501960198019701990Year1819761978198019821984198619881990199219941996800075007000650060005500500045004000GDP(billionsof1992dollars)ActualGDPPotentialGDP“Negative”GDPgapUnemploymentRate197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961086420Unemployment(percentofcivilianlaborforce)GDPgap19Definedasanupwardmovementofpricesfromoneyeartothenext.MeasuredbythepercentagechangeinpriceindicessuchastheConsumerPriceIndex,theProducerPriceIndex,ortheso-calledGDPdeflator.MacroProblem#3:Inflation20Housing32%Transportation19%Food17%Health6%Insuranceandpensions9%Clothing5%Entertainment5%Miscellaneous5%Personalcare1%Education1%21ConsumerPriceIndexInUSA-12-10-8-6-4-202468101214161930194019501960197019801990ConsumerPriceIndex14percentin1947InflationAveraged3.4percentayear.Minus10percentin1932资料来源:美国劳工部22TheGoalsofMacroeconomicPolicyAhighandgrowinglevelofnationaloutputHighemploymentwithlowunemploymentAstableorgentlyrisingpricelevel23课题思考你认为现在中国宏观经济的问题是什么?有什么方法和措施吗?24Indealingwitheconomicproblemssuchasinflationandunemployment,theFederalgovernmenthasanumberofpolicytoolsatitsdisposal.Thetwomostimportanttoolsarefiscalpolicy(财政政策)andmonetarypolicy.(货币政策)MajorMacroPolicyTools25四、AggregateSupplyandAggregateDemandAggregateSupplyreferstothetotalquantityofgoodsandservicesthatthebusinesswillinglyproduceandselfinagivenperiod.AggregateDemandreferstothetotalamountthatdifferentsectorsintheeconomywillinglyspendinagivenperiodExogenousVariables(外生变量)InducedVariables(引致变量)26AggregateSupplyandAggregateDemandAggregateSupply(AS)=Employeecompensation,rents,interest,andprofitSavingsBankHouseholdsInvestmentFirms(Production)ConsumptionBankingandFinanceAggregateDemand(AD)=Consumption+Investment27AD曲线P1Q1P3Q3P2Q2ADItshowsthevariousamountsofrealoutputthatdomesticconsumers,businesses,andgovernmentalongwithforeignbuyerscollectivelydesiretopurchaseateachpossibleprice.ThedownwardslopeoftheADmeansthatasthegeneralpricelevelfalls,consumersandbusinesseswillincreasetheirdemandforgoodsandservices.28WhyASCurveSlopeDownwardWealthEffectInterestRateEffectForeignExchangeRateEffect29ShiftofAggregateDemandCurve1.Changeinconsumerspendinga.Consumerwealth(+)b.Consumerexpectations(+)c.Householdindebtednessorcreditconditions(+)d.Taxpolicy(-)2.Changeininvestmentspendinga.Interestrates(-)b.Profitexpectationsoninvestmentprojects(+)c.Businesstaxes(-)d.Technology(+)e.Degreeofexcesscapacity(+)3.Changeingovernmentspending(+)4.Changeinnetexportspendinga.Nationalincomeabroad(+
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