发展融资的新生力量 细观中国和巴西的对外投资(English version)

AninteractivelookatChineseandBrazilianoverseasinvestmentsXiaomeiTan,DeputyChinaCountryDirectorandDirectorofChinaXiaomeiTan,DeputyChinaCountryDirectorandDirectorofChinaXiaomeiTan,DeputyChinaCountryDirectorandDirectorofChinaXiaomeiTan,DeputyChinaCountryDirectorandDirectorofChinaEmergingActorsinEmergingActorsinEmergingActorsinEmergingActorsinDevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopmentFinanceFinanceFinanceFinanceWRI’sworkonemergingactorsindevelopmentfinanceisledbytheInternationalFinancialFlowsandtheEnvironmentinitiative.Thegoalofthisresearchistoimprovetheenvironmental,social,andclimatechangepoliciesthatgovernemergingactors’investments,andtoensurethatlocalcommunitiesandcivilsocietyorganizationsimpactedbytheinvestmentsareabletoengagewith“emergingactors”moreeffectively.ThispreliminaryresearchfocusesonChineseandBrazilianoverseasinvestmentsandbeginstolookatthegrowthdriversandgeographictrendsofthoseinvestments.PreliminaryResearchPreliminaryResearchPreliminaryResearchPreliminaryResearchThiscollectionoffiguresandchartsisbasedonpreliminaryresearchconductedbyBruceJenkins,WRIconsultant,andXiaomeiTan,WRISeniorAssociate.ThescopingresearchconcludedinApril2011andincludesdatafromvarioussourcesthatareupdatedfrequently.Thedataiscirculatedtostimulatetimelydiscussionandcriticalfeedbackandtoinfluenceongoingdebateonemergingissues.WRIhasnotverifiedthedata,andfiguresandchartsaremeanttobeusedforillustrativepurposes.WRIwillcontinuetoupdatethedataasourresearchmovesforward.IntroductionIntroductionIntroductionIntroductionSouth-Southfinancialflowsarechangingthenatureofdevelopmentfinanceandassistance.Between2009and2010,twoChinesestate-ownedbankslentmoremoneytootherdevelopingcountriesthantheWorldBank.2Duringtherecentfinancialcrisis,Brazilinvested$10billioninIMFbonds,astrikingexampleofthecountry’stransformationfromadebtortocreditor.2ExpandingSouth-SouthtradeandinvestmentprovideswelcomeandneededsourcesofcapitalforcountriesinAfrica,Asia,andLatinAmerica.Atthesametime,thesefinancialflows–coupledwiththeemergenceofpowerfulfinancialactorsfromChina,India,Brazil,andothereconomies–mayposenewchallengesforenvironmentalandsocialsustainability.　　　ANewGeographyofGrowthANewGeographyofGrowthANewGeographyofGrowthANewGeographyofGrowthRelativeshiftsineconomicpowerandpoliticalinfluencearereconfiguringtheglobalcontextforsustainabledevelopmentpolicy.WearecurrentlywitnessingwhattheOECDterms“thenewgeographyofgrowth”–“a20-yearstructuraltransformationoftheglobaleconomyinwhichtheworld’seconomiccentreofgravityhasmovedtowardstheEastandSouth.”Trendsindicatethatdevelopingeconomieswill“accountfor57%ofworldGDPby2030.”3Despitesharpdifferencesamongmembers,theG-20issupplantingtheG-8astheprimaryvehicleforglobaleconomicpolicycoordination.4Largeemergingmarketeconomiesaredefiningtheirownapproachestodevelopmentcooperation,governanceissues,andenvironmentalandsocialsustainabilityoutsideofmanyexistingnormativeframeworks.ExpandingSouth-SouthTradeExpandingSouth-SouthTradeExpandingSouth-SouthTradeExpandingSouth-SouthTradeSouth-Southtradeisclearlyadynamicforceintheglobaleconomy.Whileworldtradeexpandedfour-foldbetween1990-2008,South-Southtradegrewmorethantentimes.Developingcountriesnowaccountforaround37%ofglobaltrade,withSouth-Southflowsmakingupabouthalfofthattotal(19%ofglobaltrade).5In2009,forexample,ChinasurpassedtheUSasAfrica’slargesttradingpartner.Sino-Africatradevolumesexceeded91billionUSdollarsin2009.6ChinaGoesGlobalChinaGoesGlobalChinaGoesGlobalChinaGoesGlobalChina’sdecades-longrapidgrowthhasmadeitthesecondlargesteconomyintheworld,surpassingJapaninmid-2010.7AmajorfactorcontributingtoChina’sgrowthhasbeenitsintegrationintotheglobaleconomy,acatalyticstepinthecountry’seconomicdevelopment.China’stransformationfrom“isolated”to“globalized”isadirectresultofthegovernment’sdesiretospurandmaintainlastinggrowthofitseconomy.8In2001,China’stenthFive-YearPlan(2001-2005)formalizedthedirectiveforChinesecompaniesto“GoGlobal,”astrategytogainaccesstoneededresources,stimulatetheexportofgoods,andgrowChina’smultinationalbusinessesandbrands.Beijinghasprovideddiplomaticsupport,favorabletaxexemptions,insurance,and,critically,accesstolow-costfinance.The“GoGlobal”strategydeliveredquickresults–China’sOFDIflowsincreasedfromunder$1billionin2000to$57.9billionin2010,whileitsstockofoutwardforeigndirectinvestment(OFDI)grewfromnearly$27billionin2000toover$296billionin2010.9AsreportedbytheMinistryofCommerce(MOFCOM),China’sOFDIstockislargelyconcentratedinAsia,althoughinvestmenthasincreasedsignificantlyinLatinAmericaandAfricaoverthepastfiveyears.However,thisfigureassignsflowsthroughtheoffshorecenterssolelytothecorrespondingregion,leadingtoanoverestimationofOFDIinAsiaandLatinAmerica.AnassessmentbytheU.S.-basedHeritageFoundationinvestigatesthesediscrepancies.WhereasMOFCOMreports$7.8billioninAfricanOFDI,Heritagerecords$37.9billion.WhereasMOFCOMdesignatesLatinAmericaasthesecondleadingOFDIdestinationin2008,Heritageranksitbehindallotherregions,withsignificantinvestmentsinEurope,Oceania,theMiddleEast,andNorthAmerica.10ChineseOver