低年龄人口数据质量的分析与评价

20101、。、1%1‰、。。。。。。。2003200019901990“”“”【】。20000～3340。、、、、。【】【】。28。、20021243372000。2002。2002、。200319821990。20031990～2000、19902000、。“”。、。。“”。。、2003。《》。。、200011～451～42、3、2009。72000～12000～200729201012008《》520000～4689820077～1181691。71300。4、520000～452000690020078200。7。851271.3254.3。20077～11250。220000～9320050～9120000～420000～43764869431329680689783741.00000037648694313296806897837420011～53729431497687910.00096338726895327071657143406020022～63889332600714930.00098839365385329959517236133620033～73981833093729110.00098840301619334949397379655920044～83966233083727450.00096641057971342474127530538320055～957700348366110606640.01325043547396365027178005011320066～104035033321736710.00090744487321367375968122491720077～114015633366735220.00090044617778370733338169111130。。1.。1‰、、、。。。2.。。20000～45。。。、、。。3.。。。。0～4、1%1‰。。4531201012000、20052001、20072、3。21%200520005。31‰6。、1%1‰。。、“”“”。。20077～1020000～3。100%。6～87300150165。200720000、1、2、3240、449、280、291。123、222、127、136118、227、153、155。20000220002005200020050513797466331512829683161150633516147380467027140177063116408957453814457906561661899762491522826697171992879032001200720012007061412.56757.53655.041481.67800.11681.56171250.05682.76567.191542.44852.67689.67281280.06701.87578.301498.56815.11683.33391479.65797.51682.141643.67905.67738.004105111515.471618.17827.62862.93687.85755.351699.331785.11926.33962.00773.00823.11632688620000～320000552713503404～6。、。1.“”。200020001.218。02000。200020001.218。78420077～10789102007868831175095658549795743531589761317835995925991881071770898792378048218851178773130892988968151456959895384370660123200074602066333593633242551628227701684630902778972346557101075955016472675650267353302637922470652478381376476792996520077～1078910200712281051175972221737022724931274447152696813626841550076013924231332147234850424010451376426162667414613061644070620077～1033201012.3000。2000601.2998650.88312.42610.46%7.10%。0～910.21%6.94%。。3.。103000。。4.20～30。。5.。200027。72000‰‰01264452368963165748208340085155564184521153690938288739708035522.1318.7726.0626.922.5632.11127529797017055573592531815166461516917502529936555981369701.821.781.862.492.372.642142325237799459643306422749124211032817235622917588580597381.321.351.281.61.591.6131483930980771906762119173389584775417944685953849684061890.971.000.921.171.191.150～18。。。6.“”。920000～2“”120117。8200000.7028040.71877110.7494330.78623720.776980.82392530.7641310.80727334。、、1%、1‰2000、。。300。20000340。、、、、。。1.2003《———》《》2。2.、2002《2000》《》4。3.2002《》《》3。4.2002《“”“”》《》4。5.2003《》《》1。6.2003《2000》《》5。7.、2003《2000》《》4。8.、2009《》《》4。9200035ChineseJournalofPopulationScienceAbimonthlyNo.FebruaryABSTRACTSHowMigrantWorkersCanFurtherContributetotheUrbanizationPotentialsofChina’sGrowthinPost-crisisEraCaiFang·2·ThelabormarketadjustmentthatmigrantworkershaveconductedduringthecourseoffinancialcrisisanditsresultfurtherconvincestheongoingLewisturningpoint,whichhasnotonlychangedthecharacteristicsofthelabormarketbutalsochallengedthesustainabilityoftheeconomicgrowthinChina.Oneofthenewcharacteristicsisthatagricultureisnolongerapoolofsurpluslaborforce-thatis,theprocessofrural-to-urbanmigrationisirreversible.Oneofthechallengesisthatthereductionofruralsurpluslaborforceandslowertrendofmigrationimplytheshrinkageofdemographicdividend,andthereforeanewsourceisingreatneedforfurthereconomicgrowth.Suchasourcecanbefoundandutilizedindeepeninganewpatternofurbanizationthatfocusesonprovidingcitizenshiptomigrantworkersandtheirfamilies.Throughinternationalcomparison,thispaperalsodiscusseshowsuchanewpatternofurbanizationcanserveasanewdriverofeconomicgrowth,predictsthespeedofurbanization,andclarifiestherelationshipbetweenlandexpansionandpopulationgrowthinurbanization.Thepapergivesgreatemphasisoncreatinganequalizedaccesstopublicservicesforurbannewcomers.LaborForceParticipationRatesandLaborForceGrowth1982-2050MaZhongdongLvZhihaoYeKongjia·11·LaborForceParticipationRateLFPRisoneofthethreeimportantdeterminantsoflaborforcechange.Basedonthepastandrecentcensusdata,wefocusontheagepatternsandtheexplanationoflaborforceparticipationbyimportantfactors.WefoundthatthegeneralagepatternofLFPRissimilartoareverse“U”,andsignificantgenderdifferenceandurban-ruraldifferenceremaininthepattern.Regressionresultsshowthatagoodeducationlevelathighschoolorabovestronglyenhanceslaborforceparticipation,indicatingthathumancapitalisafundamentalfactorforthefuturedevelopmentoflaborforceinChina.Projectionresultsshowaninevitabledeclineoflaborforceinthenearfuture.Itisnecessarytotakeactivemeasuresbeforethedemographicwindowofopportunitycloses.EvaluationandAnalysisofQualityofLow-agePopulationDataZhaiZhenwuTaoTao·28·Byanalyzingthecontradictionexistinginpopulationdatasystem,weevaluatethequalityofpopulationdataatlowage,andusedatafromeducationsystemtoconductadetailedverification.Theresultsshowthatthepopulationaged0-3in2000censusdatawasunderreportedbyalmost3.4millionpeopleineachagegroup.Thisomissionhadasignificantimpactontheaccuracyofmanystatistics,suchasfertilityrate,aging,thefuturelaborsupply,thefuturenumberofpeopleinchild-bearingage,