对油田剩余经济可采储量及评估的讨论-以东辛油田为例

:2003-07-17:0253-9985(2003)03-0309-04郭齐军(,100029):中国现行规范中,将地质储量分为3级:探明控制和预测储量表面上看,与国际上几个具代表性分类之间相比,大体可一一对号入座,但具体操作上差别十分明显,最根本的是没有或很少考虑经济因素为与国际接轨,将经济可采储量列入储量报告势在必行在进行经济可采储量评估时,除运用递减法进行产量预测外,还应充分考虑操作成本和费用与产量相关的税费开发投资油产品价格和折现率等评价参数的影响运用该方法对济阳坳陷东辛油田的剩余可采储量进行了分析和预测结果表明,剩余经济可采储量的大小除受产量递减规律影响外,油价的影响最为显著,特别是当油价低于20美元/桶时,特别明显:剩余经济可采资源量;评估;地质储量;分类;东辛油田:郭齐军,男,39岁,高级工程师,石油地质:TE15:A[1],3:3:()(!)(∀),,,(),,(∀),,,∀,(∀),,#∃,,(producing)(behindpipe)(shutin)3,,,,,,(),Ng1+2,Ng5,Ng6,Ng5,Ng6,Ng1+2(SEC),Ng1+2,,,,,,,,SEC1,,19618,1971,1994石油与天然气地质243OIL&GASGEOLOGY200392001,958km2,24819%104t,88157%104t,355%9535%108m3,2856%108m32002630,6808%104t,274%2542%108m3,267%2000,RyderScottSEC20001231:3463/(1=0137t,)20003162627%104t,10%2153059%1082002630:292/,20002785963%104t,10%1642911%10820027,,SEC230,(1),200271,254%,15263%104t/(11141%104/);52%,1Fig.1HistoricaldevelopmentdatainDongxinoilfield47606%104m3/(168218%104/)3SEC2000,,2002(1)SECSEC,,,310242Fig.2ProductionforecastbyapplyingsuccessivesubtractionmethodinDongxinoilfield200240%60%20025848759%104,1664/t(228/),395%104(2),:&17%,13%;∋3%,7%;(12/t,8/103m3(3),,,SEC,(4)SEC292/,73039/103m3(2067/103ft3)(5)SEC,10%4SEC,,,1,2947173%104t,89459%108m310%,1642911%1084120002002,SEC,,SEC(1)42,38~34/3:3111Table1Correlationofremainingcommercialreservesmadefromtwodifferentevaluations/()-1)/(104t)/()10-3m-3)/(108m3)(10%)/(108)200012313463298963595979741215305920026302922785967303989461642911*1=0137t3Fig.3Changesofremainingcommercialreserveswithoilprices3,10/,,20/,,28/2000,1(GBn269-88).19882(GBn269-88).1988EVALUATIONOFREMAININGCOMMERCIALRECOVERABLERESERVESINANOILFIELDTAKEDONGXINOILFIELDFOREXAMPLEGuoQijun(DepofOilfieldProject,SINOPEC,Beijing)Abstract:AccordingtothecurrentstandardusedinChina,thegeologicalreservescanbedividedintothreecategories:provedreserves,controlledreservesandprognosticreservesSeemingly,thesereservescanbeapproximatelycorrelatedwiththeproved,probableandpossiblereservescommonlyusedintheworldHoweverthereareremarkabledifferencesinactualoperationTheessentialdifferenceisthateconomicfactorshasscarcelyorseldombeenconsideredForthesakeofbeingcoincidewiththosepracticedintheworld,itmaybeimperativetolistcommercialrecoverablereservesinourreservesreportExceptapplyingthesuccessivesubtractionmethodtoproductionpredictionwhileevaluatingthecommercialrecoverablereserves,variousparametersshouldalsobeconsidered,suchasoperationalcostandexpenditure,expensesoftaxationassociatedwithproduction,developmentinvestment,pricesofoilproducts,discountrate,andetcThismethodhasbeenusedtoanalyzeandpredictthecommercialrecoverablereservesinDongxinoilfieldTheresultshowsthatthemagnitudeofremainingcommercialrecoverablereserveshasbeenaffectedbytheregularpatternofproductiondecline,butithasmostobviouslybeenaffectedbyoilprices,especiallywhentheoilpriceislowerthanS|20(US)/bblKeywords:remainingcommercialrecoverablereserves;evaluation;geologicalreserves;classification;Dongxinoilfield31224