最新十分钟搞懂“次贷危机”-The-crisis-of-credit-visualized--英汉对

ThecrisisofcreditvisualizedWhatisthecreditcrisis?Itisaworldwidefinancialfiasco,involvingtermsyouprobablyheardlike,Sub-primemortgages,collateralizeddebtobligations,frozencreditmarketsandcreditdefaultswaps.Whoisaffected?EVERYONE.Howdidithappen?Here'show.Thecrisisofcreditbringstwogroupsofpeopletogether,homeownersandinvestors.Homeownersrepresenttheirmortgagesandinvestorsrepresenttheirmoney.Thesemortgagesrepresenthouses,andthesemoneyrepresentlargeinstitutions,likepensionfunds,insurancecompanies,sovereignfunds,mutualfundsetc.Thesegroupsarebroughttogetherthoughthefinancialsystem,abunchofbanksandbrokerscommonlyknownasWallStreet.Althoughitmightnotseemlikeit,thesebanksonWallStreetarecloselyconnectedtothesehousesonMainStreet.Tounderstandhowlet'sstartatthebeginning.Yearsagotheinvestorsweresittingontheirpileofmoney,lookingforagoodinvestmenttoturnintomoremoney.TraditionallytheygototheUSFederalReserve,wheretheybuytreasurybillsbelievetobethesafestinvestment.Butinthewakeofthedot.combustandSeptember11th,FederalReservechairmanAlanGreenspanlowersinterestsratestoonly1%tokeeptheeconomystrong.Onepercentisaverylowreturnoninvestment,sotheinvestorssaynothanks.Ontheflipside,thismeansbanksonWallStreetcanborrowfromtheFedforonly1%,addtothosegeneralsurplusesfromJapan,ChinaandMiddleEast,andthereisanabundanceofcheapcredit.ThismakesborrowingmoneyeasyforbanksandcausesthemtogocrazywithLEVERAGE.LEVERAGEisborrowingmoneytoamplifytheoutcomeofadeal.Hereishowitworks:inanormaldeal,someonewith10thousanddollarsbuysaboxfor10,000dollars,hethensellsittosomeoneelsefor11,000dollars,fora1000dollarsprofit,agooddeal.Butusingleverage,someonewith10,000dollarwouldgoborrow990,000moredollars,givinghimonemilliondollarsinhand,andthenhegoesandbuys100boxeswithhisonemilliondollars,andsellsthemtosomeoneelsefor1100,000dollars.Thenhepaysbackhis990,000plus10,000ininterest,andafterhisinitial10,000,heisleftwith90,000dollarprofit,versustheotherguys1000.Leverageturnsgooddealsintogreatdeals;thisisamajorwaybanksmaketheirmoney.SoWallStreettakesoutatonofcredit,makesgreatdealsandgrowstremendouslyrich,andthenpaysitback.Theinvestorsseethisandwantapieceofaction,andthisgivesWallStreetanidea,theycanconnecttheinvestorstothehomeownersthroughmortgages.Hereishowitworks:afamilywantsahouse,sotheysaveforadownpaymentandcontactamortgagebroker,mortgagebrokerconnectsthefamilytoalender,whogivesthemamortgage.Thebrokermakesanicecommission;thefamilybuysahouseandbecomeshomeowners.Thisisgreatforthembecausehousingpriceshavebeenrisingpracticallyforever.Everythingworksoutnicely.Oneday,thelendergetsacallfromaninvestmentbanker,whowantstobuythemortgage.Thelendersellsittohimforaverynicefee;theinvestmentbankerthenborrowsmillionsofdollarsandbuysthousandsmoremortgages,andputsthemintoanicelittlebox.Thismeansthateverymonthhegetsthepaymentsfromthehomeownersofallthemortgagesinthebox,andthenhesetshisbankerwizardsonittoworktheirfinancialmagic,whichisbasicallycuttingitintothreeslices:safe,okayandrisky.TheypacktheslicesbackupintheboxandcallitaCollateralizedDebtObligation,orCDO.ACDOworkslikethreecascadingtrays.Asmoneycomesin,thetoptrayfillsfirst,thenspillsoverintothemiddle,andwhateverisleftintothebottom.Themoneycomesfromhomeownerspayingofftheirmortgages.Ifsomeownersdon'tpayanddefaultontheirmortgage,lessmoneycomesinandthebottomtraymaynotgetfilled,thismakesthebottomtrayriskierandthetoptraysafertocompensateforthehigherrisk.Thebottomtrayreceivesahigherrateofreturn,whilethetopreceivesalowerbutstillnicereturn.Tomakethetopevensafer,thebankswillensureitforasmallfeecalledaCreditDefaultSwap.Thebanksdoallofthisworksothatcreditratingagencieswillstampthetopsliceasasafe,triplearatedinvestment,thehighestsafestratingthereis.TheokaysliceistripleBastilleprettygood,andtheydon'tbothertoratetheriskyslice.Becauseofthetriplearating,theinvestmentbankercansellthesafeslicetotheinvestorswhoonlywantsafeinvestments.Hesellstheokayslicetootherbankers,andtheriskyslicestohedgefundsandotherrisktakers.Theinvestmentbankermakesmillions,hethenrepayshisloans.Finally,theinvestorshavefoundagoodinvestmentfortheirmoney,muchbetterthanthe1%treasurybills,theyaresopleases,andtheywantmoreCDOslices.Sotheinvestmentbankercallsupthelender,wantingmoremortgages.Thelendercallsupthebrokerformorehomeowners,butthebrokercan'tfindanyone,everyonethatqualifiesforamortgagealreadyhasone.Buttheyhaveanidea:whenhomeownersdefaultontheirmortgage,thelendergetsthehouseandhousearealwaysincreasinginvalue,sincethey'recoveredifthehomeownersdefault.Lendercanstartaddingrisktonewmortgages,notrequiringdownpayments,noproofofincome,nodocumentsatall.Andthat'sexactlywhattheydid.So,insteadoflendingtoresponsiblehomeownerscalledPrimeMortgages,theystartedtogetsomethatwere...well,lessresponsible.TheseareSub-PrimeMortgages,thisistheturningpoint.So,justlikealwaysthemortgagebrokerconnectsthefamilywithalenderandamortgage,makinghiscommission,thefamilybuysabighouse.Thelendersellsthemortgagetotheinvestmentbanker,whoturnsitintoaCodmansellsslicestotheinvestorsandothers,thisactuallyworksoutnicelyforeveryoneandmakesthe