世界500强石油公司SWOT分析

RolandBerger&PartnersLtd.–InternationalManagementConsultantsBarcelona–Beijing–Berlin–Brussels–Bucharest–Budapest–BuenosAires–Delhi–Detroit–Düsseldorf–Frankfurt–HamburgHelsinki–HongKong–Kiev–KualaLumpur–Lisbon–London–Madrid–Milan–Moscow–Munich–NewYork–ParisPrague–Riga–Rome–SãoPaulo–Shanghai–Stockholm–Stuttgart–TelAviv–Tokyo–Vienna–ZurichLON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.pptSectorSketchandSWOTAnalysisoftheDutchOilSector–FinalPresentation–DutchMinistryofEconomicAffairsOilDivisionTheHague,3rdFebruary1999LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-2-AconflictappearstobeemergingbetweenthetraditionalDutcheconomicstrengthsandmorerecentenvironmentalconcernsDutcheconomicprosperityOilindustryfocussedonexportsFoundedontradingMotorofRotterdamtradingstrengthDutchenvironmentLegitimateenvironmentalconcernsHighpopulationdensitylow-lying-vulnerabletoGlobalwarming•Globalwarming•Congestion•NoiseExportindustrymustbeinternationallycompetitivetosurviveToughenvironmentalstanceConflictLON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-3-ContentsPageA.ExtractsfromSectorSketchB.FeedbackfromoilandchemicalcompanyinterviewsC.SWOTAnalysisC.1.StrengthsC.2.WeaknessesC.3.OpportunitiesC.4.ThreatsD.Recommendations47111217232631LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-4-A.ExtractsfromSectorSketchLON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-5-TheDutchoilindustryhastraditionallybeenstrongandinternationallyorientatedRefiningandChemicalsTradingPorts•Only15%oftotaloilsupplydestinedforhomemarket•Accountsfor9%ofEUrefiningcapacity•KeysynergieswithandsupplytoDutchchemicalsindustry•BeneluxchemicalclusterissecondlargestinEurope•Rotterdam‘world’sleadingport’for30years•Road,rail,inlandwaterwayandpipelineconnectionstomanymajormarkets•MajoroiltradingmarketintheEUtimezoneandoneofthebig3globally(Rotterdam,Houston,Singapore)LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-6-EachsectorintheoilindustryfacesimportantissuesaffectingitscompetitivepositionOilrefining•Increasingcostsofenvironmentalcompliance•Mergers/allianceschangethecompetitivescene•OvercapacityandlowreturnsStorage•Supportstheinternationalbusiness•Fostersindependenttraders•OvercapacityandlowreturnsTrading•Strongroleofrefiningcompanies•DependentoncriticalmassofRotterdammarketBunkering•Importantfueloiloutletforrefiners•RefinersbecomingdominantPipelines•PipelinesandwaterwayskeytoRotterdamlogisticaladvantage•DominatedbyprivateorconsortiumownedpipelinesChemicals•Importantsynergieswithoilsector•Sectorenteringdownturn•Long-termgrowthpotentialLON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-7-B.FeedbackfromoilandchemicalcompanyinterviewsLON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-8-Environmentalandclean-upregulationswerecentraltoviewsexpressedbymostintervieweesRoleoftheNetherlandsDecisionmakingbodiesLandreleaseCurrentsituationIndustryviewpointAlternativeapproachGoesaheadofcompetingcountriesonenvironmentalissuesThisunderminescompetitivepositionofoilandchemicalindustriesLeadbyinfluencingEUconsensusratherthanbyexampleSignificantregionalandnationalvariationonenvironmentalregulationsCompetitiontobegreenerVariationpreventstheexistenceofa‘levelplayingfield’PlaceenvironmentaldecisionmakingandimplementationinthehandsofonebodyClean-upcostsareaformidableexitbarrierLandcanbereleasedifeconomicallyviableCostsofclean-upshouldbebalancedagainstcostoflandreclamationHowever,thegovernment’swillingnesstodiscussandreachconsensuswasappreciatedLON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-9-Allintervieweesrecognisedthe‘WorldClass’infrastructureofRotterdam,althoughtherearethreemajorcontentiousissuesPortfeesCommoncarrierpipelineMaasvlakte2CurrentsituationIndustryviewpointAlternativeapproachHarbourduesbasedontonnageratherthanservicesusedRotterdamismoreexpensivethanAntwerp,LeHavreorHamburg.Theoilindustry‘subsidises’thecontainerindustryBasechargesmoreonservicesthanontonnagebasisNocommon-carrierpipelineexistsMaybeeconomicallyviableConsidercommoncarrierwhereextraflexibilityneeded,butcompensateownersofpipelinesforinvestmentandriskPositivediscussionlikely:newlandreclamationathighcostExtralandwillfavourchemicalsectorTheoilindustrydoesnotrequireextralandEnsureproperfundingforMaasvlakte2:NoburdenonoilindustryLON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-10-PressureforrationalisationislikelytocoincidewithtimingofinvestmenttomeetfuturefuelspecificationsOvercapacityFuturefuelspecificationsCurrentsituationIndustryviewpointDespiterecentclosures,thereremainsupto15%overcapacity•Asmanyas13EUrefineriesneedtoclose•Issuecomplicatedfurtherbyrecentmergers•Clean-upcostsremainthebiggestbarriertoexit;socialcostsarealsosignificantTargetspecificationsfor2005require€40bninvestmentacrosstheEUOftheDutchrefineries,onlyEssoandShellarewellplacedtomeet2005specswithoutmajorinvestmentLON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-11-C.SWOTAnalysisLON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-12-C.1.StrengthsLON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-13-TheDutchoilsectorislargeandwellconcentrated,accountingfor9%ofEUrefiningcapacity(comparedto4.5%consumption)EuropoortPernisCrudeCapacity(b/d)NerefcoShellEssoTotalKPIS&H374,000400,000180,000148,00070,00010,000BotlekVlissingen+xAmsterdamEuropoort79,500KochEuropoortSource:MinistryofEconomicAffairsLON-P-04358-