并购心理学

*Professor,BrooklynLawSchool.IthankPhilipLindenbaumforhisresearchassistance,DeanJoanWexlerforasummerstipendandone-semestersabbaticalandProfessorLarryMitchellforhisinvitationtotheSummer2000SloanProgramfortheStudyofBusinessinSocietysponsoredbytheGeorgeWashingtonUniversityLawSchool,whichinspiredtheArticle.©Allrightsreserved.QUASI-RATIONALITYINACTION:ASTUDYOFPSYCHOLOGICALFACTORSINMERGERDECISION-MAKINGbyJamesA.Fanto*ThisArticleshowshowrecentbehavioralandpsychologicalliteratureisusefulforunderstandingmergerdecision-makingbyconductingapsychologically-orientedempiricalstudythatrevealsthepresenceofpsychologicalmotivationsorfactorsinmega-mergerdecision-making.Thedatasetisthe10largeststock-for-stockmega-mergersforeachofthelastthreeyears–theheydayofthemega-mergers.ItfirstsituatestheArticleinanongoingstudyofthemega-merger“wave”andpresentsthenecessarybehavioralandpsychologicalbackgroundtotheempiricalstudy.Itnextdescribesthemethodofthestudy,whichinvolvescreatinga“grid”ofpsychologicalfactorsandapplyingittopublicrepresentationsofdecisionsbytheboardsofthemergingfirmsinthedataset,inordertodetectthepresenceofthefactorsinthisdecision-making.Itthenpresentstheresultsoftheempiricalstudyandoffersanarrativeexplanationofthem.Toreinforcetheshareholdervaluedestructioninthemega-mergers,theArticlealsoprovidesevidenceofvaluelossinthe30mega-mergers.Finally,itdiscussestheimplicationsoftheempiricalstudyforcorporateandsecuritieslawrelatingtomega-mergerdecision-making.Hereitfindsthatcourtsandpolicy-makersacceptapsychologicallysimplisticviewofthisdecision-makingbybothboardsofdirectorsandshareholders.Italsoarguesthatbothcorporatelawandfederalsecuritieslawsrequirereformsothatregulatorsandcourtscanaddresstheinfluenceofpsychologicalfactorsinmergerdecision-making.TheArticleconcludesbyofferingexamplesofpossiblelegalreform.I.INTRODUCTION....................................................2II.ANONGOINGSTUDYOFMEGA-MERGERS...............................6III.A(PARTIAL)REVIEWOFTHEBEHAVIORALANDPSYCHOLOGICALLITERATURE..9IV.METHODANDDATA...............................................16V.TABULARRESULTSANDANALYSIS...................................23A.TabularResults......................................23B.AnalysisofIndividualResponses........................281.Myopia.................................282.LossAversion,“StatusQuo”Bias............313.ExtremenessAversion.....................364.Over-Optimism...........................39**SeeDennisCarey(moderator),LessonsFromMasterAcquirers:ACEORoundtableonMakingMergersSucceed,HARV.BUS.REV.146(May-June2000).***SeeMartinLipton,“Mergers:Past,PresentandFuture”(Jan.10,2001,onfilewithauthor).****SeeCassR.Sunstein,BehavioralAnalysisofLaw,64U.CHI.L.REV.1175,1183(1997).25.HindsightBias...........................436.AnchoringHeuristic.......................447.AvailabilityHeuristic,FramingEffects,etc.....46C.ValueDestructionintheMega-Mergers...................46D.LinkingthePsychologicalFactorstoValueDestruction.......52VI.LEGALCOMMENTARY.............................................53A.TheLaw’sResponsetothePsychologicalFactors...........53B.SuggestedLegalResponsestothePsychologicalFactors......62VII.CONCLUSION....................................................74APPENDIXA.........................................................76APPENDIXB.........................................................79“Iwouldtakeissuewiththeideathatmostmergersendupbeingfailures.Iknowtherearestudiesfromthe1970sand‘80sthatwilltellyouthat.ButwhenIlookatmanycompaniestoday–particularlynew-economycompanieslikeCiscoandWorldCom–IhaveahardtimedismissingthestrategicpowerofM&A.”–AlexMandl,ChairmanandCEOofTeligent.**“Mostacademicstudiesofmergersarguethatamajorityofmergersarenotbeneficialtotheacquiringcompany....TheoverwhelmingmajorityofnegotiatedstrategicmergersthatIhavebeeninvolvedinovera45-yearperiodweresuccessfulfortheacquiringcompany.”–MartinLipton,renownedtakeoverlawyer.***“Evenfactuallyinformedpeopletendtothinkthatrisksarelesslikelytomaterializeforthemselvesthanforothers.”–ProfessorCassSunstein(referringtopsychologicalliteratureonoptimismandself-servingbias).****I.INTRODUCTIONByallaccounts,thestock-for-stockmega-mergeristhekindoftransactionthat1Amega-mergerisgenerallyunderstoodtomeanamergeroflargefirmswheretheacquiringandacquiredortargetfirmareofcomparablesize.SeeRichardT.Bliss&RichardJ.Rosen,“CEOCompensationandBankMergers”9(Feb.2000draft,onfilewithauthor)(definingbankmega-mergerasanacquisition“wherethetotalassetsofthetargetbankimmediatelybeforethemergerannouncementareatleasttenpercentoftheacquirer’spre-mergerassetsandwherethetargetisnotafailedbank.”)(footnoteomitted);EdwardJ.Kane,“IncentivesforBankingMegaMergers:WhatMotivesMightRegulatorsInferfromEvent-StudyEvidence?”14(2000draft,onfilewithauthor)(definingbankmega-mergerastransactioninvolvingoneofthelargestbankholdingcompaniesthatincreasesitspro-formasizeormarketcapitalizationbyatleastone-half).2SeeMartinPeers,etal.,AOL,TimeWarnerLeapBorderstoPlanaMammothMerger,WALLST.J.,Jan.11,2000,atA1.3SeeinfraPartVD