硕士论文-基于行业生命周期的并购财务风险评估研究

南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文基于行业生命周期的并购财务风险评估研究姓名：陈娟申请学位级别：硕士专业：会计学指导教师：耿成轩20080301iDealogic20063.87ILCILCAHP-FuzzyILCILCILCILCILCILCILCiiABSTRACTMergerandacquisition(M&A),whichemergedasthemarketeconomydevelopedtoacertainphase,hasbeenanextremelyimportantwayofpropertytradinginmoderneconomiclife.AccordingtothestatisticsfromDealogic,thetotalamountofglobalM&Atradingreached3.87trillionUSDin2006,whichsetanewrecordforannualglobalenterpriseM&Ascale.However,therearealsoquiteafewfailedcaseswiththerecentsurgeofM&A,mostofwhichhaveresultedfromfinancialrisks.InspiteofsomanyresearchtheoriesregardingfinancialrisksofenterpriseM&A,severalelementsarestillignored,andoneofthemistheindustrylifecycle(ILC)oftheenterprisesconcerned,whichisvitalforM&Afinancialriskevaluation.OnthebasisofsummarizingtheM&Afinancialriskresearchbothdomesticandabroad,thisessaypointsoutthedrawbacksofcurrentresearch,includingtheoneofignoringtheILCoftheenterprisesinvolved.ByfirststudyingtheILC’simportanceandnecessityforevaluatingfinancialrisks,thetheoryofILCisthenintroducedintotheevaluationsystemoffinancialrisks.BasedontheILCtheorytheessayanalyzesphasetraitsofILCandthusputforwardthefinancialcharacterswithimpactonM&Afinancialrisks.TheessayalsoexpatiatesthepartitioningofmostdomesticILCs,whichhelpstostudythetraditionalM&Afinancialriskevaluationmodels(i.e.modelsunmodifiedbyILC).OnemajortheoreticalinnovationinthisessayisthedesigningoftheILC-revisedM&AfinancialriskevaluationmodelandtheresearchoverthematrixofILCrevisingdegree,whichiscarriedoutbyusingtheAHP-Fuzzytool.TotestthevalidityoftheILC-revisedmodel,thisessaychoosestostudythecaseofBENQ’sacquiringofSimensMobileDepartment.ItrespectivelyutilizesthetraditionalmodelandtheILC-revisedonetoevaluatetheacquisition’sfinancialrisk,andthemethodsofexperts’markingandlevelanalysisareadoptedtoworkoutthecomprehensiverevisingdegreematrixofagrowingILC.Aftercomparingthetwoevaluationresults,itfindsthattosomedegreethetraditionalmodelunderestimatesthisacquisition’spricingandfinancingrisksincontrastwiththeILC-revisedone,provingthelatter’svalidityandapplicability.ThisessayendeavorstoimproveonthevalidityandeffectivenessofM&Afinancial-risk-evaluations,andtoenrichandsubstantiatecurrentM&Afinancialriskevaluationtheories,thushelpingguidefutureenterpriseM&AsandenhanceM&Aefficiency.Keyword:mergerandacquisition(M&A),financialrisk,industrylifecycle(ILC),evaluationvi1.11996-2006................................................................21.2...........................................................................................52.1...............................................................................................73.1.................................................193.2.............................................................................203.3.............................................................234.1.................................................................304.2.............................................................................................334.3.....................................................................374.4.............................................................................384.5...................................................................................................................434.6AHP-Fuzzy................................................445.1.....................................................................525.2.............................................................................52()11.11953[1]1897100[2]7011090[3]1984199393019.8%[4]19842019841989199219961997[5]200706[6]200620052.942006Dealogic200623.87200529%200016%1.1[6]00.511.522.533.5496979899000102030405061.11996-2006199670%199820011713125066659200437820033652003190315520200350%2005200420041039245.4[7]1001+12[8]31.2[9]1.1Mikinsey1987116361%Bradleyetall1988248CARN/APAPAConsulting19892880%Charkrabarti199031N/AHealy19925040%MercerMC199515050%/Smolowiz/Hillyer199645N/ASirower199716865%50%N/A[5]20011975AT&TNCR20[7]41.2.11.2.21.2.31.2.4WTO1005[8]1.31.261.4ELSEVIEREBSCOSpringer1.21.272.12.1.1MergerandAcquisitionMergerAcquisition[10]M&A2.112851%30%25%32.1[8]2.12.1.22.1.2.1[11]119202932.1.2.2122.1.2.3101210%-15%2.1.2.4122.1.2.512112.22.2.1FinancialRisk2.22.22.2.212[12][13][14][15][16]AHP-Fuzzy[17]AHP-Fuzzy2.32.3.11312[18]3452.3.2142.3.2.1[19][20]2.3.2.2[21]2.3.2.32.3.2.42.3.2.52.42.4.115Healy1992[22]C2000[23]Philip.H.Mirvis1992Robert.J.BorghesePaul.F.BorgheseC2002[24]PS1998Hart-Scott-RodionActSamuelC.Weaver2003[25]1990CopelandTKollerTMurrinJ[26]FamaEF1998[27]DechowHuttonandSloan1999[28]MorinJarrell2001DrivingShareholderValue16[29]2.4.219982000[30]2002[31]2006[32]2003[33]2001[34]2003AHP-GRAM[35]2002200220032003172006[32]2.5123184ILCIndustryLifeCycle193.1Vernon196670WilliamJ.AbernathyJamesM.UtierbackA-U[36]80GortKlepperG-K[37]90KlepperGraddyK-G[38][39]3.1IndustryLifeCycle[40]3.1U3.2203.2[41]3.23.2.1213.2.2[42]223.2.33.2.43.323203.3GlG2ABCD[43]3.31990~199561996~200163.1GDP666666G1%CBDAG2%2463.2[44]3.1%66GDP9.1010.635.