电子商务对经济增长作用的实证研究

《》201110*2008。。。。F713．36A1007-6964201110-110704-0382*“”70973079S30504“”2009。①．M．2008．②BrookesMartinZakiWahhaj．TheShockingEconomicEffectofB2BM．GoldmanSachs＆Co．GlobalEconomicsFebruary3．2000．。2008。20091625%20093825121．7%①。、1．2000MartinBrooksZakiWahhaj2000MULTIMODB2BBusinesstoBusiness、、、②。B2BB2B。52001～2010B2BGDP0．25%。200211CiscoSystemInc．netimpactstudy．com1995～20101．2%2．1%48%。2000～20101．3%1．7%30%。computablegeneralequilibriumCGE。CGE。2．、、、。·04·《》201110《》①。《》②。、。3．。。、、、、。。。、。。。5。、、、、。1。1、1．。2001“－”2001CII③。CII。2001④2009⑤。、、、、、·14·①②③④⑤．J．201029840－44．．J．2010631－32．《CII》．J．20011226－31．．J．2001943－47．．J．200942274－76．《》201110、1。118GDP15web1512151015①。12000～2009《》、《》1～25《》2003、2004～2005、2006～2007、2008～2009B2B《1997～2009》《》《CII》2000。2。1080。。22004《》、2006《“”》。、。B2B2009612282。。B2B2009610001。。。。2010。100%、、85%。2．——·24·①．M．2008．《》2011102Y=AEeKαLβeu1YGDPK、LEe、α、βeu。1lnY=lnA+elnE+αlnK+βlnL+u220002000～2009SPSSlnY=1．332+0．017lnE+0．492lnK+0．203lnL+u33R2=0．998珚R2=0．997F=965．136珚R2=0．997GDPlnElnKlnL。F。。3．2312000～20091%GDP0．017%2。GDP。20．0170．4920．203。、、、。、、、。30．017%BrookesWahhajGDP0．25%①。。“”。·34·①BrookesMartinZakiWahhaj．TheShockingEconomicEffectofB2BM．GoldmanSachs＆Co．GlobalEconomicsFebruary3．2000．WorldEconomyStudyNo．102011SerialNo．212《》201110TheImpactofIncomeDistributiononChina'sExportTradeAnAnalysisbasedontheOverlappingDemandStructurecalculatedbyNonparametricKernelDensityEstimationWenYang33ThispapermainlyresearchestheimpactofincomedistributiononChina'sexporttrade．ItcalculatestheoverlapofincomedistributionbetweenChinaand45exportdestinationcountriesbynonparametrickerneldensityestimationwhichrepresentstheo-verlappingdemandstructure．ThepaperconductstheempiricalresearchbyusingFGLSmethodandconcludesthatthelargertheoverlapofincomedistributionbetweenChinaandexportdestinationcountriesthemoretheexportvalueandtheoverlapofin-comedistributionhasmoreimpactondifferentiatedproductsthanhomogeneousproducts．ThereislessfocusontherelationshipbetweenincomedistributionandexporttradeinChinathestudyishelpfultofurtherdiscussthedevelopmentofChina'sexporttradefromanewangle．AnEmpiricalAnalysisofElectronicCommerceonEconomicgrowthYangJianzhengZhouTaoLiQingzi40AfterthefinancialcrisisthevitalityofElectroniccommerceEChasgivenrisetoattentionofpeople．Inthestudyofrela-tionshipbetweenECandeconomicgrowthpeoplealwaysfocusontheimportanceofmicrocosmicfieldandtheoreticalexplana-tion．ThispaperemployedtheDouglasFunctionmethodtoprobeintotherelationshipbetweenECandeconomicgrowth．There-sultsofempiricalanalysisindicatethattheelasticityofECIndexissignificantlypositivewhichmeansthatECcansignificantlypromoteeconomicgrowth．ButthelowerindexofECsafetyisoneofthemainreasonsthateffectourcountry'sECdevelopinglever．TechnologySpilloversTechnologyInnovationandForeigaTradeATheoreticAnalyticalFrameworkbasedonaGen-eralEquilibriumTangJieying44Thispapersetsupamodelfromtheoptimizationofmicroeconomicentitiesbehaviortoanalysistheeffectsoftechnologyspill-oversontechnologyinnovationetc．andcomestothefollowingconclusions．Inaclosedeconomythechangesintechnologyspill-oversfrominnovationsectortonon-innovationsectorhaveapositiveeffectonrealwagesandconsumptionyetitseffectsontech-nologyinnovationdependontheelasticityofproductsubstitution．Inanopeneconomythechangesintechnologyspilloversofacountrywheneveritishomecountryorforeigncountryhaveapositiveeffectonrealwagesandconsumption．Thechangesoftech-nologyspilloversfromforeigncountrytohomecountryhaveapositiveeffectonbothcountries'technologyinnovation．Thechangesintechnologyspilloversfromtheinnovationsectortonon-innovationsectorinsideacountryhaveapositiveeffectontheothercountry'stechnologyinnovationyetits'effectsonitsowncountry'stechnologyinnovationdependontheelasticityofproductsub-stitution．Thechangesintwocountries'economicpositiondependonthechangesintwocountries'speedoftechnologicalpro-gress．AnEstablishmentofTrend-DeductionModelofChangingOilPricesXuHaiyan50ThisarticleusesstochasticprocesstheorytoexamineoilpricetimesequencesshowingthattheyareMarkovchainsandu-singlimitprobabilitytoestablishamedium-longtermdeductionmodelforthem．Itgoesontoapplyaprobabilitydistributiontesttothesesequencesshowingthatlog-normaldistributionfitstheiractualdistributionbestandestablishashort-termdeductionmodelofoilpricetrendsonthebaseofthistest．Thearticledemonstratesthatacombinationofthesethreemodelsconstitutesacompletedeductionmodelofoilpriceseries．Theauthor'sdeductionsofoilpricetrendsusingthismodelcorrespondtoactualtrendsprovingthemodel’sreliabilityandpracticability．Additionallyusingthismodelalsobringstolightanewroundofinter-nationaloilpricehikeswhichcouldpotentiallyoccurinthefuture．OnBalanceofChina'sBilateralForegnTradeAnEmpiricalAnalysisbasedonPanelDataRelatingtoChinaand114CountriesYuFengSunHongbo57ForeignbilateraltradeimbalanceshaveseriouslyrestrictedthehealthydevelopmentofChina'sforeigntrade．Byreviewing·88·