广东省风速极值I型分布参数估计方法的比较

I(,510080):8619512003,I,I3:,3,,:,,:IComparisonofEstimationofWindSpeedExtreme2IDistributionParametersinGuangdongProvinceHuangHaohuiSongLiliZhiShiqunLiuAijun(ClimateCenterofGuangdongProvince,Guangzhou510080)Abstract:Onthebasisoftheseriesofannualmaximumwindvelocityat86nationalweathersta2tionsinGuangdongProvincefrom1951to2003,thereturnperiodsofannualmaximumwindve2locityofeverystationarecalculatedwiththefunctionofextreme2Iusingthreemethodsofestima2tionofparameters,i.e.,squaresmethod,Gumbelsmethodandthemethodofmaximumlikeli2hood.ThefittingresultsshowthatGumbelsmethodisthebestinmostcases,eveninthecasethatthesquaresmethodorthemethodofmaximumlikelihoodseemsbetteranditschoicenessin2dexisclosertothatofthebestmethod.KeyWords:windspeedfunctionofextreme2Iestimationofparameter,,,I:2006911;:2006111533,320073METEOROLOGICALMONTHLYVol.33No.3March,2007©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(100),,,,,,I,,[1];I:,,,[2],?I86,1II:F(x)=exp(-exp(-a(x-u))(a0,-u),a,u,x1,x2,,xnau,F(x)R(1/R):Rx=u-1a1n1nRR-12I3211au:():E(x)=a+u,,0.57722():2=26a2:a=1.28255u=E(x)-0.57722aE(x)212:x1x2xn,:F3(xi)=in+1i=1,2,,n:yi=-1n(-1n(F3(xi)))i=1,2,,n:a=(y)(x)u=E(x)-E(y)aE(x)(x)213,I:f(x)=F(x)=aexp[-a(x-u)-exp(-a(x-u))]x1,x2,,xn,,:20133©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=n1na-ni=1a(xi-u)-ni=1exp(-a(xi-u))au,au,:nexp(-au)=ni=1exp(-axi)n(x-1aexp(-au)=ni=1xiexp(-axi)au2141949,50,,:(),,,19512003,53,195447.2ms-1,5226.3ms-1,20.9ms-1,(),,,[3]x1,x2,,xn,xN,N(Nn),xn2nn,N:xN=1NxN+(N-1)xnN:2N=1N-1(xN-xN)2+(N-1)2n,au:(1)aN=1.28255NuN=xN-0.57722aN(2)aN=N(x)N(y)uN=xN-yNaN3311,3(1)S2f=1n-1ni=1(xi-x^i)2n,xi:x1x2xn;x^i,:x^i=u-1a1n(-1n(F3(xi))(2)Rf=10031nni=1xi-x^ixi(3)Kf=Dnnn,Dn:Dn=maxF3(xi)-F(xi)xi,Dn,0.05,Kf1.35,I,33.28619512003,,10m10,86,3013:I©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[4],86,43Kf1.35,I;823Kf1.35,3,I82,6(),6,,703Sf2RfKf,0.518m2s-24.062%0.730,0.440m2s-23.616%0.670,0.537m2s-23.588%0.676,70,4,8,58;6,1,5;6,,,,70,38,31,13123,IauSf2RfKf,100V1001Sf2/m2s-2Rf/%Kfau/ms-1V100/ms-10.7407.3561.1790.49310.43219.80.7506.8331.1140.44910.38420.61.0736.3341.0370.38410.27222.21.27010.731.3040.4228.95819.81.3059.691.1710.3828.89920.91.6518.791.0360.3378.77522.41.2924.8240.9030.36612.51725.11.3016.1110.9270.33312.45126.32.0793.8130.8840.47612.72422.4,3,100V1001,,,,V1002.7ms-1,3.9ms-1,RfKf,Sf2,,2,,V1001.8ms-1,2.0ms-1,340133©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:3Sf2/m2s-2Rf/%Kfau/ms-1V100/ms-10.0991.4430.6940.79312.13117.90.0851.5810.6750.72312.10218.50.0851.4560.6630.75312.12618.20.8245.330.8930.34411.97725.40.7695.3470.8520.31211.90726.60.7615.3180.8530.32611.96126.10.8183.6040.7420.34413.90627.30.7683.0080.6080.31313.83828.50.7623.0130.6320.31713.81728.3,,,1,,(),,,V1001.6ms-11.2ms-16,,,V100,,V10038.3ms-1,,,V10031.5ms-1,6.8ms-1,21.6%,18,3,V100,0.7ms-1,0.1ms-1,5013:I©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[1],.[J].,1997,12(4):2842291.[2],.[J].,2004,36(12):160521609.[3].[R].,1977:25.[4],,,.[M].:,1984:2432244.[5],,.[J].,2002,28(1):39242.60133©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.