中国海外直接投资的决定性因素

ThedeterminantsofChineseoutwardforeigndirectinvestmentPeterJBuckley,LJeremyClegg,AdamRCross,XinLiu,HinrichVossandPingZhengCentreforInternationalBusiness(CIBUL),LeedsUniversityBusinessSchool,UniversityofLeeds,Leeds,UKCorrespondence:AdamRCross,CentreforInternationalBusiness(CIBUL),LeedsUniversityBusinessSchool,UniversityofLeeds,MauriceKeyworthBuilding,LeedsLS29JT,UK.Tel:þ44(0)1133434587;Fax:þ44(0)1133434754;E-mail:[e-mail]:18January2006Revised:29September2006Accepted:23November2006Onlinepublicationdate:24May2007AbstractThisstudyinvestigatesthedeterminantsofChineseoutwarddirectinvestment(ODI)andtheextenttowhichthreespecialexplanations(capitalmarketimperfections,specialownershipadvantagesandinstitutionalfactors)needtobenestedwithinthegeneraltheoryofthemultinationalfirm.WetestourhypothesesusingofficialChineseODIdatacollectedbetween1984and2001.WefindChineseODItobeassociatedwithhighlevelsofpoliticalriskin,andculturalproximityto,hostcountriesthroughout,andwithhostmarketsizeandgeographicproximity(1984–1991)andhostnaturalresourcesendowments(1992–2001).WefindstrongsupportfortheargumentthataspectsofthespecialtheoryhelptoexplainthebehaviourofChinesemultinationalenterprises.JournalofInternationalBusinessStudies(2007)38,499–518.doi:10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400277Keywords:China;outwardFDI;theoryofthemultinationalenterprise;ChinesemultinationalfirmsIntroductionThispaperinvestigatesthedeterminantsofforeigndirectinvest-ment(FDI)byChinesemultinationalenterprises(MNEs)overtheperiod1984to2001.1TheprocessofChina’sdeepeningre-integrationwiththeglobaleconomybegan,inthemodernera,withthe‘OpenDoor’policiesofthelate1970s,andacceleratedwithaccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganisation(WTO)in2001.StudiesofthisprocessgenerallyexamineChinaintermsofitspositioninglobaltradeflows(e.g.,LallandAlbaladejo,2004);itscomparativeadvantageasamanufacturinglocation(e.g.,Chenetal.,2002;Rowen,2003);andinthevolume,distributionandimpactsofinboundFDI(e.g.,Buckleyetal.,2002;Buckley,2004b).2Incontrast,understandingofafurtherdimensiontothisprocess–namely,theriseinChineseoutwarddirectinvestment(ODI)–remainsveryincomplete.OnereasonisthepaucityofsufficientlydisaggregateddatatopermitformalanalysisoftheforcesshapingChineseODI.TheresulthasbeenapreponderanceofdescriptiveresearchonFDItrends(e.g.,Taylor,2002;Deng,2003,2004;WongandChan,2003;Buckleyetal.,2006)coupledwithin-depthcasestudiesonasmallnumberofhigh-profileChineseMNEs(e.g.,LiuandLi,2002;Warneretal.,2004).UsingofficialdatafromoneofthekeyagenciesconcernedwithChina’sinvestmentapprovalprocess,theStateAdministrationforForeignExchange(SAFE),thisexploratorystudyis,toourknowl-edge,oneofthefirsttomodelformallytheforcesdrivingChineseJournalofInternationalBusinessStudies(2007)38,499–518&2007AcademyofInternationalBusinessAllrightsreserved0047-2506$30.00(muchofwhichconcentratesonindustrialisedcountry,andespeciallyUS,investors)canexplainFDIfromanemergingeconomylikeChina.ChinaisaparticularlygoodtestcaseforthegeneraltheoryofFDIasitpresentsmanyspecialconditionsthatarerarelyencounteredinasinglecountry.SeveralindicatorspointtoastrengtheningofChina’sroleasaninvestorcountryinrecentyears.By2004,ChinawastheeighthmostimportantFDIsourceamongdevelopingcountries,behindeco-nomicallymoreadvancedeconomiessuchasHongKongSAR(SpecialAdministrativeRegion),SouthKorea,RepublicofChina(Taiwan)andSingapore(UNCTAD,2005a).ArecentsurveyofnationalinvestmentpromotionagenciespredictsthatChinawillbecomeatopfoursourcecountryofFDIovertheperiod2005–2008(UNCTAD,2005b),withAfricanandAsia-Pacificcountryagenciesinparti-cularhighlightingthedominantroleexpectedofChina,placingitsecondonlytoSouthAfricaandtheUSAineachregion,respectively.ThereiseveryindicationthatChinawillcontributeincreasinglytoglobalFDIflowsoverthecomingyears.Theseindicatorshighlightthetimelinessofthisstudy.Chineseoutwardinvestorscanberegardedasbeingstate-ownedintheperiodunderstudy,sinceprivatefirmswerelegallyprohibitedfrominvestingabroadpriorto2003.Since1979,whenODIwasformallypermittedunderthe‘OpenDoor’policies,theinternationalisationofChinesefirmshasbeentightlycontrolledbynationalandprovincialgovernment,eitherdirectly,byadministrativefiat,orindirectly,viaeconomicpolicyandothermeasuresdesignedtoadvancetheeconomicdevel-opmentagenda(Buckleyetal.,2006).Initially,ODIwaspermittedonaveryselectivebasis.However,inrecentyearsadministrativecontrolshavebeenrelaxed,approvalprocessesandproceduresstream-lined,andtheceilingraisedontheamountofforeignexchangethatcanbecommittedtoindivi-dualinvestmentprojects(Sauvant,2005).Theprocessofacceleratedoutwardinvestmentliberal-isationandgrowthcanbetracedfromDengXiaoping’stourofSouthChinain1992throughtothegovernment-led‘goglobal’(zouchuqu)initiative,whichwasinstigatedin1999.Thisinitiativeaimstopromotetheinternationalcom-petitivenessofChinesefirmsbyfurtherreducingoreliminatingforeign-exchange-related,fiscalandadministrativeobstaclestointernationalinvest-ment(Sauvant