global weekly economic monitor

SeeDisclosureAppendixA1fortheAnalystCertificationandOtherImportantDisclosuresNomuraSecuritiesInternationalInc.GlobalWeeklyEconomicMonitorNOMURAGLOBALECONOMICSChina’sinvestmentmomentumChallengesindealingwithdomesticoverheatingnotwithstanding,development-relatedinvestmentgrowthissettokeepdrivingstronggrowth.GLOBALLETTERDefendingtheFed5ThecriticismoftheFedkeepsonmounting,butitiswideofthemark,inourview.REGIONALROUNDUPSUnitedStatesRetailershavesettheholidaytable6Retailersseemtobebankingonarevivalofthe“animalspirits”ofAmericanshoppers.EuropeCoreblimey,guv8Coreinflationcangivemisleadingsignalsaboutappropriatepolicymoves.JapanHighgrowthtosharpcontraction10RealGDPgrewstronglyinQ3,butweexpectittodeclinesharplyinQ4.Asiaex-JapanThecaseforcapitalcontrolsIII–proliferationbegins12Capitalcontrolsandmacro-prudentialmeasuresarespreadingbuttheyarenopanacea.EmergingMarketsLatinAmerica:Foodinflationdéjàvu?14InflationinLatAmsofarhasremainedrelativelytamebutcould2008repeatitself?SPECIALTOPICSChinaInvestmentasfarastheeyecansee16Althoughpropertyinvestmentislikelytoslow,thepublicinvestmentpipelineishuge.BrazilWho’safraidofinflationexpectations?18Theyaresupposedtobeforward-lookingandinformbutthisisnotquitesoinBrazil.UnitedKingdomAsOBeRautumnstatement20TheOfficeforBudgetResponsibilityforecastrevisionsshouldbrightentheoutlookabit.19November2010DATAANDOUTLOOKSForecastsummary......................2Ourviewinanutshell.................3Economicdatacalendar..............4UnitedStates............................22Europe.....................................25Japan.......................................29Asia.........................................31EmergingMarkets.....................36Contacts...................................49NomuraGlobalEconomics2GlobalWeeklyEconomicMonitor19November2010ForecastSummaryTheWorldataGlanceRealGDPConsumerPricesPolicyRate%overayearago%overayearago%endofperiod201020112012201020112012201020112012Global4.84.14.43.23.33.22.983.534.06Developed2.62.02.41.51.71.40.570.911.23EmergingMarkets7.36.46.65.25.25.25.766.457.07BRICs8.78.08.05.14.84.86.597.197.75Americas3.62.83.12.92.72.51.922.062.36UnitedStates*2.72.52.71.71.51.20.130.130.13Canada3.02.32.31.82.12.01.002.503.25LatinAmerica6.53.94.36.86.66.67.567.678.63Argentina9.05.04.726.724.625.79.2312.0011.00Brazil7.54.14.74.94.74.510.7510.0010.00Chile5.04.55.52.53.03.03.254.005.00Colombia5.04.24.52.53.53.73.004.006.00Mexico4.73.03.53.93.94.04.504.507.25Asia/Pacific7.86.77.03.43.53.64.154.855.41Japan†3.61.12.0-0.8-0.10.10.050.050.05Australia3.43.63.63.03.13.15.005.255.25NewZealand1.82.83.52.33.92.43.003.754.50AsiaexJapan,Aust,NZ9.08.18.24.54.24.45.065.886.53China10.29.89.53.33.64.05.566.567.31HongKong***6.54.54.92.54.44.80.400.400.40India**8.48.28.58.95.95.76.256.757.50Indonesia5.96.56.75.05.85.36.507.507.50Malaysia7.05.25.51.73.33.22.753.503.50Philippines6.34.54.83.94.25.04.005.006.50Singapore***15.55.35.82.82.82.60.400.400.40SouthKorea5.93.55.03.03.73.02.503.003.25Taiwan9.84.35.01.02.43.01.632.132.63Thailand7.04.85.23.54.24.41.752.503.00Vietnam6.76.67.08.49.08.89.0010.0010.00WesternEurope1.71.61.81.92.21.80.911.662.46Euroarea1.71.61.81.62.01.91.001.752.50France1.61.71.91.71.81.81.001.752.50Germany3.52.52.41.11.61.71.001.752.50Italy1.01.01.31.62.32.11.001.752.50Netherlands1.71.72.21.01.82.01.001.752.50Spain-0.20.30.71.72.01.81.001.752.50UnitedKingdom1.81.92.33.23.31.50.501.252.25EEMEA3.53.33.35.66.66.25.906.616.95CzechRepublic2.31.42.61.72.62.00.751.252.00Egypt5.55.85.711.912.211.08.259.009.00Hungary1.01.52.04.94.13.85.257.007.50Israel2.73.84.03.02.93.42.003.503.75Kazakhstan6.25.34.87.17.66.57.007.257.00Poland3.64.24.62.63.53.24.005.005.50Romania-2.01.52.56.14.03.06.256.007.00SaudiArabia4.24.34.05.45.65.32.002.252.50Russia4.03.42.76.88.77.77.758.258.25SouthAfrica3.03.33.64.24.66.15.506.508.50Turkey5.94.55.57.25.45.47.008.508.75Ukraine4.74.85.09.511.210.57.757.757.75UnitedArabEmirates2.13.53.0-0.32.53.02.002.252.50Note:Aggregatescalculatedusingpurchasingpowerparity(PPP)adjustedsharesofworldGDP;RealGDPandCPIreportedasannualaveragegrowthrates;Developedcountries:UnitedStates,Canada,Japan,Australia,NewZealand,HongKong,Singapore,theEuroarea,andtheUnitedKingdom-allothercountriesareconsideredEmergingMarkets;BRICS:Brazil,Russia,IndiaandChina;EEMEA:EmergingEurope,MiddleEastandAfrica;allvaluesareforecasts.Ourforecastsincorporateassumptionsonthefuturepathofoilpricesbasedonoilpricefutures,consensusforecastsandNomurain-houseanalysis.CurrentlyassumedaverageBrentoilpricesfor2010,2011and2012are$80,$89and$96respectively,after$62in2009.*2010and2011policyrateforecastsaremidpointof0-0.25%targetfederalfundsraterange.**Inflationreferstowholesaleprices.***ForHongKongandSingapore,thepolicyraterefersto3MHiborand3MSibor,respectively.†Policyrateforecastsin2010-2012aremidpointofBOJ’s0-0.10%targetunsecuredovernightcallraterange.Thearrowssignifychangesfromlastweek.Source:NomuraGlobalEconomics.GlobalWeeklyEconomicMonitorOurViewinaNutshell(changefromlastwee