多米诺效应的风险分析方法

OnassessmentspecificallydirectedtotheflightsafetyFEIJing2rong1,XUDao2qi2,ZHAOYong3,LIUZhi2nong3(1TeachingandResearchDepartment,NavalFlyingAcademy,Hu2ludao125001,Liaoning,China;2ResearchInstituteofFlightSafe2ty,NavalFlyingAcademy,Huludao125001,Liaoning,China;3SoftwareCenter,NavalFlyingAcademy,Huludao125001,Liaon2ing,China)Abstract:Thepresentpaperisaimedatintroducingaflightsafetyassessmentmodeldevelopedbytheauthortoguaranteetheflightsafe2tyinourcountry.Inordertosatisfytheparticularneedsofspecialornewflighttasksapilothastoaccomplish,wehavebroughtaboutapertinentassessmentmodelbasedonthestudyofallthelikelyfactorsinvolvingtheflightsafety.Forthisparticularneed,wehavecarefullyinvestigatedtherelationshipbetweenthepertinentassessmentmodelandtheuniversalassessmentmodelbasedonthewell2knownAnalyti2calHierarchyProcess(AHP)inthispaper,Then,allthefactors,el2ementsandquantitativeandqualitativestandardsofthegeneralas2sessmentmodelshavebeenreexaminedandredefinedinaccordancewiththesafetyflighttheoryinthispaperalongwiththeparticularfac2torsorparametersconcerningtheparticularsituationsoftheflightcrewmembers,thoseoftheaircraftitself,thespecificenvironmentandmanagement,someofwhicharelikelytobethesameasthoseinassessmentorevaluationofgeneralnature.However,alltheabovementionedfactorshavetoberedefinedandrecheckedingeneralrou2tinesafetyassessments.Thus,itcanbeseenthatthefactorsofthepertinentassessmentmodelshouldalsoincludemanagement,pilotsandtheirflightmission,naturalenvironment,theaircraftanditsmaintenanceroutinewhilethequantifiedstandardoftheelementsofthepertinentassessmenthastobedefinedonthebasisofthemethodsforanglicizingthebasicevents,theflyinglawsaswellasasampleofinvestigation,inadditiontoasampleunitsflighttraininginanotherplace.Theresultsofourinvestigativeresearchindicatesthatprecau2tionsshouldbetakenifthesafetydegreeofthepertinentassessmentisexpectedtoreachSK90%.Keywords:safetyscience;thepertinentassessmentmodel;flightriskcalculateCLCnumber:V328Documentcode:AArticleID:100926094(2008)062014820555(The5thAsianRegionCon2ferenceonSafeCommunities)2009102830:2008-01-17:,,;(),,,,[e-mail]:(200603746006):100926094(2008)06201522083,,,(,300071):,,,;,,,:;;;;:X93:A0,,,,2060,,19841119,15,648,,490,4000,900,31000[1]1997914,HPCL,,2519,60,115[2],Kourniotis[3]2040207,55107%,4(1)1997627,,,939,111720051113,T-102,,4,525186200812JournalofSafetyandEnvironmentVol.8No.6Dec,2008,5,,,,,,,,,,,,Seveso-(96/82/EC)[4],,,,11996(Seveso)[4],2003,,,(),BagsterPitblado[5],,,,,KhanAbbasi[2],,1Fig.1Numberandcategoryofdominoaccidents,1998DOMIFFECTHSE[6]SHELLSHEPHERD,Cozzani[7,8]3,,,,GubinelliHauptmanns[9,10],,Delvosalle[11]DOMI2NOXL210,Reniers[12],2007DomPrevPlanning(DPP)Kourniotis[3]LeeYoung[13,14],,2090,2000,,2,,1DelvosalleCozzani,,3[16]1);2),1;3)1(),3,2[7]1)(LowSeverityInitiatingEvent,LSIE),(HAZOP),351200812,:Dec,2008,,,LSIE2)(MajorAccidentalEvents,MAE)MAE,,,,,,MAE,,()3Cozzani[7]3100,2CozzaniKhan,,,,2100Table2Physicaleffectsin100dominoaccidentsVCE170161170107BLEVE130013110088004444000000100532621(2):()()()(QRA),3,(1N),,2Fig.2Quantitativeriskassessmentflowofdominoeffect1Table1CurrentdominoeffectdefinitionsinsomerelevantdocumentsLees[4],,,11,BagsterandPitblado[4]ThirdReportoftheAdvisoryCom2mitteeonMajorHazards[6]()[4],(AICHE-CCPS)[15],,,Cozzani[7,16],,(),Delvosalle[17],,451Vol.8No.6863Table3Informationofthearea/t/a-11LPG150()310-7225()110-7311,(),,,QRA,,,,[7,16,18,19]3123(2),3,31211,33121111,3[20,21]1),1,0;2);3),,,,[16,22]P=12Y-5-e-x2/2dx(1)P;Y;xY=k1+k2ln(ps),,Y4,YY=-18.96+2.44lnps(2)Y=-42.44+4.33lnps(3)Y=-28.07+3.16lnps(4)Y=-17.79+2.18lnps(5)ps,Pa3121112,,Khan[2]1)a),,DT=(0140IAr)/(Mcp)(6)DT,K;M,kg;cp,Jkg-1K-1;Ar,m2;I,Jm-2,P2=(T1P1)/T2(7)P2=(nRT2)/Vvap+P1(8)Vvap=fvapV(9)fvap=1-exp(-cp(T2-T1)/Hv)(10)P2,Pa;P1,Pa;T1,K;T2,K;Vvap,m3;V,m3;fvap;Hv,Jkg-1b),[2,8,20,23],,Prelief=(2Eymax(Sc-C))/(Di+(S-C))(11)Prelief,Pa;Eymax,Pa;Di,mm;Sc,mm;Eymax=P2[(1-)+2K(1+)]/(K2-1)(12);K;P2,PaPrelief=(4Eymax(Sc-C))/(Di+(S-C))(13)Di,mmPrelief=(2Eymax(Sc-C))/(KDi+015(S-C))(14)Di,mm;K,K=(2+(Di/2hi))/6,hi,mm2),,,P=(P2-Prelief)/Prelief(15),Cozzani[7,16]551200812,:Dec,2008Y=12.54-1.847lntlnt=-1.128lnI-2.66710-5V+9.877(16)Y=12.54-1.847lntlnt=-01947lnI+8.835V01032(17)Y;t,s;I,kWm-2;V,m3Y(1),3121113,,,[2,21],,,31),,S=KEA(18)S(),mm;A,mm2;E,J;K,4[2,9]EE=12mv2f(19),vfvf=(gx/v0)2+v20(20)v0,ms-1;x,m;g,ms-2vf=(gx/v0sin+v0cos)2+(v0sin)2(21)P=(S-Sc)/Sc(22)Sc,mm;P2)40%50%,1/4mfv2f=McpDT(23)mf,kg;vf,ms-1;M,kg;cp,Jkg-1K-1;DT,K4Table4Piercingcoefficientofthematerials14010P2=(T1P1)/T2(24)P2=(nRT2)/Vvap+P1(25)Vvap=fvapV(26)fvap=1-exp(-cp(T2-T1)/Hv)(27)P2,Pa;P1,Pa;T1,K;T2(T2=T1+DT),K;Vvap,m3;V,m3;fvap;Hv,Jkg-1,,P=(P2-Prelief)/Prelief(28)3)P=V/Vr(29)V,m3;Vr,,m3,,P=PPP(30)P=min[1,{1-(1-P)(1-P)(1-P)}](31),,,31212n+1,1(f),,n,(),11,,k(kn)Ckn=n!(n-k)!k!(32),S=C1n+C2n++Cnn=2n-1(33),n=10,S=210-1=1023,,,,[16]f(k,m)d=fP(k,m)d(34)P(k,m)d=ni=1[1-Pi+C(i,Jkm)(2Pi-1)](35)f(k,m)dkm;f,;p(k,m)dkm;Pii,;Jkm=[1,,k]km,m651Vol.8No.686m(1mS),kk(kn),iJkm,C(i,Jkm)1,0313,,,,-,,5[15,1