上市公司现金流风险对企业价值影响研究

论文题目:我国上市公司现金流风险对企业价值影响研究学科专业:会计硕士学位申请人姓名:导师姓名:摘要对于企业来说，其良好的生存和发展，都离不开现金流的支持，现金流与企业的投融资活动密切相关，企业现金流风险管理的情况不仅代表着一个企业的支付能力，更是代表了企业未来风险抵御能力的强弱。无论是何种类型的企业，都不能忽视现金流的管理，即便是高利润的企业，也有可能因为现金流短时间内的短缺而出现运营上的困难，甚至破产。企业自身的价值高低以及它生产经营的情况如何在一定程度上取决于其现金流的稳定及质量情况。现金流是企业长久发展的前提保障。一旦企业在对外筹资上遇到困难，自身的现金流又出现短缺，整个企业的运营发展都会遇到困难。另外企业的利润表相较于企业现金流量表更容易操控。企业经常出现账面上的利润和收入是非常可观的，但最后因为现金流问题导致企业出现严重的财务问题，亦或是因为缺乏现金流，而导致丧失投资机会。这些都会影响企业自身的投资价值。对于企业的投资者而言，机构投资者可以根据自己的详细分析和研究结果来判断企业的投资价值，但是相对于中小投资者而言，分析和选择太多相应的模型和指标来判断企业的现金流风险是十分困难的。本文从现金流风险的角度出发，将现金流风险管理，财务预警系统等对企业价值产生显著影响的现金流风险指标做了一个分析和分类，提取出较为显著且有效的成分从而帮助中小投资者有更为简单直观的方法来识别企业的现金流风险，从侧面评价现金流风险对被投资企业的投资价值的影响。本文选取2011年至2013年沪深上市公司的数据作为研究样本，采用现金流量结构、收益比率、偿债能力、财务弹性、收益质量等指标来衡量公司的现金流风险程度，并探讨现金流风险对企业价值造成的影响。实证结果表明，现金流风险值对企业价值有显著的负向影响。其表明投资者能够在一定程度上识别企业内在的现金流风险程度并给予现金流风险程度较低的企业更高的估值。上市公司管理层应当通过风险管理等手段降低企业现金流风险程度，从而提高公司价值。公司的正常运营与投融资活动都与现金流紧密相关，现金流充足的企业不仅支付能力较强，同时能够更好的防范风险。而一旦现金流枯竭，即使该企业创造利润能力再强，经营也会难以维持下去。因此，现金流的大小对企业价值起着至关重要的作用。关键词：现金流风险；企业价值；论文类型：专题研究ABSTRACTTitle:TheReserchintotheImpactofCashFlowRiskonChina’sListedCompaniesSpecialityorProfessionalFields:MasterofProfessionalAccountingApplicant:Supervisor:ABSTRACTCashflowisimportantforthesurvivalanddevelopmentofanenterprise;itiscloselyrelatedtothecompany'sinvestmentandfinancingactivities.Thesituationofcashflowriskmanagementwillnotonlyrepresentthepaymentabilityofanenterprise，italsorepresentsthefuturestrengthofacompanyinresistingrisk.Nomatterwhattypeofbusiness，wecannotignorethemanagementofcashflow，evenhighlyprofitablecompanies;theymayhaveoperationaldifficultiesbecauseofashortageofcashflow，evenbankruptcy.Thevalueandoperationofacompanyalsolargelydependsonthestatusofcashflow.Cashflowisaprerequisiteforlong-termdevelopmentofacompany.Onceenterpriseshaveencountereddifficultiesinexternalfinancingandhaveshortageincash，thewholeenterprisewillencounterdifficulties.Theincomestatementsofacompanyiseasiertomanipulatecomparedtocashflowstatement.Althoughthebookprofitandrevenueisveryimpressive，thecompanyoftenhavefinancialtroubleintheendorlosetheinvestmentopportunitiesbecauseofcashflowproblems，whichwillaffectthethevalueoftheirowninvestments.Forinvestors，theinstitutionalinvestorscandeterminetheinvestmentvalueofthebusinessbytheirowndetailedanalysisandfindings.Butitisdifficulttosmallinvestorstodeterminecashflowriskoftheenterprisebyanalyzingandselectingappropriatemodelsandindicators.Fromtheperspectiveofthecashflowrisk，Thispaperanalyzeandclassifythefollowingcashflowriskindicatorssuchasthecashflowriskmanagementandfinancialwarningsystems，whichhaveasignificantimpactontheenterprisevalue，thenweextractmoresignificantandeffectiveingredientstohelpsmallinvestorstoidentifycorporatecashflowriskandevaluatetheimpactthevalueofenterpriseinfluencedbycashflowrisk.Thispaperselects2011-2013ShanghaiandShenzhenlistedcompaniesassamplesofdata，usingthecashflowstructure，solvency，earningsratios，financialflexibility，earningsqualityandotherindicatorstomeasurethelevelofthecompany'scashflowrisk，andtoexploretheimpactthatcashfolwriskhaveontheenterprisevalue.Theempiricalresultsshowthatthevalueofthecashflowriskhasasignificantnegativeimpactontheenterprisevalue.whichsuggeststhatinvestorscanidentifythelevelofinherentcashflowriskinthebusinesstosomeextent，andgivecompanieswhichhavelowlevelofriskahighervaluation.Manageroflistedcompaniesshouldreducecashflowriskthroughriskmanagementandothermeanstoimprovethecompany'svalue.Normaloperationsandthecompany'sinvestmentandfinancingactivitiesarecloselyrelatedtocashflow，sufficientcashflowwillnotonlybringthestrongabilitytopay，butalsorepresentsthefuturestrengthofacompanyinresistingrisk.Oncethecashflowdriedup，thebusinesswillbeABSTRACTdifficulttosustainevenifthecompany’sabilitytomakeaprofitisstrong.Therefore，cashflowplaysavitalroleinanenterprise.KEYWORDS：Cashflowrisk；Thevalueofenterprise；TYPEOFTHESIS：Monographicstudy目录IV目录1绪言.................................................11.1研究背景............................................................................................................11.2研究目的与研究意义........................................................................................21.3研究思路与方法................................................................................................21.4文章架构安排...................................................................................................32文献综述...........................................42.1现金流风险相关文献综述................................................................................42.2现金流风险与企业价值相关文献综述...........................................................42.2文献评述............................................................................................................63理论基础.............................................73.1现金流风险........................................................................................................73.1.1现金流风险度量.................................................73.1.2现金流风险识别................................................83.2现金流风险与企业价值.........................................................