麦肯锡对话全球企业领袖——卡特彼勒公司前董事长兼CEO英文全记录

1NOVEMBER2010McKinseyconversationswithgloballeaders:JimOwensofCaterpillarCaterpillar’sformerchairmanandCEOreflectsonanunconventionalcareerpath,organizationalchange,andhowandwheretostaycompetitiveoverthelongterm.operationspractice2Duringhis38-yeartenureatCaterpillar,JimOwenssawtheconstruction-equipmentcompanyrecoverfromthefinancialbrinktobecomeanindustryarchetypeintoday’semerging-marketgrowthstory.Inthisvideo,thelatestinourinterviewseriesMcKinseyconversationswithgloballeaders,Owens—whoretiredaschairmanonOctober31—talksaboutthatevolution,hisownjourney,andtherolebusinessleadersplayinrebalancingneweconomicrealities.Hans-WernerKaas,adirectorinMcKinsey’sDetroitoffice,conductedtheinterviewinSeptember2010.Managinginthedownturn:ThegamehaschangedTheQuarterly:Jim,unlikemostCEOs,youareaneconomistbytraining.Howhasthatuniquebackgroundshapedyourviewsontheglobaleconomiccrisis?JimOwens:Intermsoftheeconomicsideofitall,hereatCaterpillar,wethinkaboutscenarios.Andso,wekindofsetthosetrendlevels,ifyouwill,andthenthehigh-lowsthatwewillhavetodealwith.Andreally,withinthefirm,webreakthatdownintothesub-elementsofourbusiness,becausetheassetstosupportthebusinessaretiedtothat.Andso,we’vegonethrough,inourstrategicplanningprocessatCaterpillarovertheyears,we’vereallyworkedonthathigh-lowmentalitywithalotofemphasis,becauseeverybodyisinclinedtobeoptimistic.Inmanyoftheindustriesweserve,beitglobaloilandgasindustry,miningindustry—certainlyconstruction,housing—theseindustriesarehighlycyclical.Andthecapitalgoodsdimension,youknow,fluctuatesevenmorethanthemacroeconomic,GDP-typedollarsassociatedwithit.So,wejusthavetobepreparedforthosekindsofextremes.TheQuarterly:Andhastheeconomiccrisisshiftedanyofthemorefundamentalstrategicpriorities,directionsofCaterpillar?JimOwens:No.Youknow,Ithink,interestinglyenough,weputtogetherourVision2020,ourlong-termstrategy,backin2004,2005.Ithinkit’sstoodthetestoftimeverywell.Weknewtherewasamegatrendafootintheglobaleconomy,ofemergingmarketsgrowingattwotothreetimesasfastastheOECD1countries,amassurbanizationthere.Wefelttheyweredrivingcommoditymarkets,soalotofthatwasembeddedinourstrategy,aswastheneedtobepreparedforextremefluctuationsandatroughscenarioofadeepglobalrecession.Now,itturnsoutthatthedeepglobalrecessionof2009wasconsiderablyworsethanweexpected.Imean,theworstsince1938.Iwouldn’tbefacetiousenoughtosayweput1OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment.3thatintoourplanbackin2004,butwedidputadeepworldrecessioninthere,andweforcedallofourbusinessunitstothinkabouthowwewoulddealwiththatifitoccurredsimultaneouslyglobally.Andthatservedusverywell,youknow,aswewentthroughthetrough.Now,Ithinkwehavetokeepinmindandbemindfulofthefactwe’relikelygoingtohavealongerperiodatbelowtrendlevelsofsalesinmanyoftheindustriesweserve.Butwe’realsolikelytoseeacorrectionbacktothattrendlevelthat’llberatherabruptwhenitdoesoccur.TheQuarterly:Fromapersonalstandpoint,thelessonslearnedduringtheeconomiccrisis—hasitchangedthewayyouhavebeenleadingtheorganization?JimOwens:Notreally.Igotalotofmymanagementtraining,ifyouwill,intheeconomiccrisisoftheearly1980s—averypainfullessonforuscorporatelybecausewewentthroughaperiodofalmostthreeyearsoflosingamilliondollarsaday.Anditwassearedinmymind,certainlyfromthefinancialsideofthecompany,thatCaterpillarhadgonethrough50yearsoftheDepression,andworldwars,andsustainedprofitability,andwehadnowallowedourselvestogetintoapositionwherewecouldn’tsustainprofitabilityintheearly’80scrisis.Itwasatoughdecade.ButIcameoutofthatwithagreatresolvethatwewouldbuildinflexibilitythatwouldallowthecompanytosustainprofitabilityand,ideally,coverthecostofcapitalintheworst-casescenario.AndIthink,youknow,thisisnotacyclicaloraquarterlything;thisisalong-termjourneyandpositioningourselvestodothat.AndIamactuallyveryproudofwhatwedeliveredintheglobalfinancialcrisisof’09.Wewereabletotakeabout30percentoutofour—whataccountantswouldhavecalledourperiodcoststructureinsideoffourmonths.Weencouragedasignificantinventoryreductionbecausewedidn’twantthingsbuildingupinthewrongplacesthatwe’dhavetodiscount.Weradicallyreducedproduction.Allthosebuilt-inmechanismsforcostflexibilitythatwethoughtwehad,wewereabletoexerciseandexecuteon.Andweactuallyneverhadaquarterevenofoperatingloss.Wesustainedprofitabilityfortheyear,nearthetargetlevelsthatwehadforjustanormaldeep,worldwiderecession.SoifIlearnedanything,it’sthatstayingfocusedonthelong-termhorizon—whereyouwanttogo—andhavingasolidplantodealwiththeextremeedgesofwhatyoumayhavetodealwithintermsofthemacroeconomicenvironment.4TheQuarterly:Whichremaininguncertainty,Jim,doyoustillseeintheglobaleconomicrecovery?JimOwens:Well,Idon’tthinkit’sasteadypath.AndIthinkwe’vegottokindofrebalancetheworldeconomy.We’vegottocomebackto,inthewesternworld,afiscaldiscipline—atleastoverthecourseofthebusinesscycle.We’vegottogetbackto—intheUnitedStates,certainly—tosignificantlymoresavings,moreinvestmentinourfuture.We’vegottoimproveourtradebalancebyincreasingourexports—notbybecomingprotectionists,butbystayingopentotheworldmarketandaggressivelyworkingon[the]glob