基于风险数据库的盾构隧道施工风险管理软件_TRM1_0_开发

:167320836(2006)0120036206(TRM1.0)X1,2,1,1(1.,200092;2.,200120):CIM(Con2trolledInternalandMemoryModels),,,:;;:U231;TP319:ARiskManagementSoftware(TRM1.0)BasedonRiskDatabaseforShieldTunnelingHUANGHong2Wei1,ZENGMing2,CHENLiang1,HUQun2fang1(1.DepartmentofGeotechnicalEngineering,TongjiUniversity,Shanghai200092,China;2.GeneralOfficeofCommandingPostofShanghaiTunnel&BridgeConstruction,Shanghai200120,China)Abstract:Theresearchworkofriskmanagementsoftware(TRM1.0)forshieldtunnelingwaspresentedinthispaper.Thesoftwarerealizedtheintegratedflowofriskmanagement,includingriskidentification,riskassessment,riskevaluation,riskdecisionandriskmonitoringbasedonariskdatabase.Themethodofriskassessmentusedinthesoftwareisexpertin2vestigationmethodandCIM(ControlledIntervalandMemoryModels)del.Keywords:shieldtunnel;riskdatabase;riskmanagementandcontrolsoftware1,,,Einstein.H.H,2004(ITA)[1],,,,,@risk[2]21200602ChineseJournalofUndergroundSpaceandEngineeringVol.2Feb.2006X:2005210214():(19662),,,,,E2mail:[e-mail]:(04dz12021)©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[3],,,FionaD.Patterson[4],,PRR(ProjectRiskRegisters)riskplanriskprocess,,CIM[5],,,Mi2crosoftAccess,MicrosoftVisualBasic6.021979Chapman(Scope,StructureParame2ter,ManipulationandInterpretation),,1991UkMoD,(InitiationIdentification,Analysis,Planningmanagement),Chapman[6]1997PRAM,(de2fine,focus,identify,structure,ownership,estimate,evaluate,plan,manage),1998RAMP,J.H.M.TahV.Carr[7][8]2001(IdentifyRisk,AssessRisk,AnalysisRisk,HandleRisk,Moni2torRisk),,,,,:(1);(2);(3),;(4),,,,,,11Fig.1Thehierarchymodulesoftheriskmanagementsoftware:(1);(2),;(3);(4),33.1,7320061,:(TRM1.0)©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[9],(1),,,,,1()Table1Riskinvestigationform,,MonteCarlo,CIM(ControlledInternalandMemoryModels,),,MonteCarlo,,CIM[5],,,,,CIM,,,Ca=C1+C2P(Ca):P(Ca=ca)=6P(C1=c1i,C2=ca-c1i)=6P(C1=c1i)P(C2=ca-c1i),Ca=C1+C2P(Ca):P(Ca=ca)=6P(C1=ca,C2Fca)+6P(C1ca,C2=ca),4:832©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[9]:CF(c),f(c),C[0,S],T(TS),R,:=‰‰2RFT1RT‰1=x1+x…2=RTRFT1RTC,:x=-S0f(c)lnF(c)dcC,:x=-6Sj=1[lnP(Cj)]P(Cj),4Fig.4Theflowofriskaccessment5Fig.5Flowofriskdecision2:9320061,:(TRM1.0)©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:6Fig.6Theinterfaceofriskdecision3.4,,,7Fig.7Theinterfacedesignofriskmonitoring,,:,6:3.5,,88Fig.8Theinterfacedesignofsinglerisksearch,,,042©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:[1]SorenDegnEskesen,PerTengborg,JorgenKampmann,TrineHolstVeicherts.Guidelinesfortunnelingriskman2agement:InternationaltunnelingassociationworkinggroupNo.2[J].TunnellingandUndergroundSpaceTechnology,2004,19:217-237[2]@risk.http:PP[3]V.Carr,J.H.M.Tah.Afuzzyapproachtoconstructionprojectriskassessmentandanalysis:constructionprojectriskmanagementsystem[J].AdvancesinEngineeringSoft2ware,2002,32:P847-857[4]FionaD.Patterson,KevinNeailey.ARiskRegisterData2baseSystemtoaidthemanagementofprojectrisk[J].In2ternationaljournalofprojectmanagement,2002,20:P365-374[5].[M].,1999[6]ChrisChapman.Projectriskanalysisandmanagement-PRAMthegenericprocess[J].InternationalJournalofProjectManagement,1997,15(5):273-281[7]J.H.M.Tah,V.Carr,R.Howes.Informationmodellingforcase-basedconstructionplanningofHighwayBridgeprojects[J].AdvancesinEngineeringSoftware,1999,30:495-509[8]J.H.M.Tah,V.Carr.Towardsaframeworkforprojectriskknowledgemanagementintheconstructionsupplychain[J].AdvanceinEngineeringSoftware,2001,32:835-846[9].[D].,2004(35),5,,,,,,:[1],.[M].:,2002[2],,.[M].:,2002[3],.[J].,2005,(3):214-216[4],.[J].,2000,(3):57-61[5].[M].:,1991[6],.[J].,2004,23(11):1852-1855[7]KandelA,ByattWJ.Fuzzyprocesses[J].FuzzySetsandSystems,1980,4(2):117-152[8]ShaoRQ.Amulti-levelfuzzysyntheticevaluationonin2vestmentprogramsinshipping[J].TransportationEngineer2ing,2004,144(93):497-502[9].[J].(),2002,33(7):87-91[10],.[J].,2003,2(1):12-151420061,:(TRM1.0)©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.