心理因素如何影响风险决策中的价值运算_兼谈Kahneman的贡献

~AdvancesinPsychologicalScience274KahnemanKahnemanB849:C93DanielKahnemanVernonL.SmithKahnemanKahnemanKahnemanpreferenceA100B50AA100B50BAcBcABtheexceptedmonetaryvalueEVEVUtilityBernoulli,N.&Bernoulli,D.St.PetersburgParadox1713N.(1)(2)2nn2482482n1/21/41/8021-62656303Email:[e-mail]5108085100010001TverskyKahneman(40000.80)(30001.00)80(40000.80)(30001.00)920[3]KahnemanTversky3Óπ(pi)1simutaneousgamblingandinsurance[4]0.00150000.0015000ThalerRHmentalaccountingtheory[5]300150ThalerEndowmenteffectCoasethoremThalerX0V(X)V(X)[6]1974HammackBrown1044247[7]10050ThalerThalerXYVXVYVXYThaler4[7]VXVYVXY2500030002000v(x)+v(y)v(x+y)v(y)v(x)xy(x+y)2v(x)+v(y)v(x+y)V(X)+V(Y)V(XY)XYXYV(X)+V(Y)V(XY)XYXYVXVYV(XY)silverlining4060006000VXYVXVY[8][8]50[9]theexperimentaleconomicstheeconomicpsychologyKahnemanTverskyKahnemananchoreffectA882B445151A1.27B8.0461.761.80*ABAB2451.271.80245[10]KahnemanThalerKahneman[1]BaronJ.ThinkingandDeciding.NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress,1988.299[2]KahnemanD,TverskyA.ProspectTheory:AnAnalysisofDecisionunderRisk.Econometrica,1979,47(2):263~291[3]TverskyA,KahnemanD.TheFramingofDecisionsandthePsychologyofChoice.Science,1981,211:453~458[4]LoomesG,SugdenR.ARationaleforPreferenceReversal.TheAmericanEconomicReview,1983,73(3):428~432[5]ThalerR.MentalAccountingandConsumerChoice.MarketingScience,1985,4(3):199~214[6],2003,1111~5[7]DavisDD,HoltCA.ExperimentalEconomics.Princetin:PrincetinUniversityPress,1993.480~486.[8]..,1982.53[9]..,1988.35[10]..,1999,6:11*..1998HowthePsychologicalVariableAffectedtheJudgmentofValueinRiskyDecision-making?DiscussingaboutKahneman’sContributionsZhangLing(DepartmentofEducationalAdministration,EastChinaNormalUniversity,Shanghai200062)Abstract:Riskydecision-makingisacomplicatedprocess.Becauseofthepsychologicalvariable,theregulationofjudgmentofvalueisconflictwitheconomicsandmathematics.Thesedisplaythreeconcepts:utility,valuefunction,mentalaccounting.Kahneman’stheoryinheritedthepastandusheredinthefuture.Keywords:utilityProspectTheoryValueFunctionMentalAccounting