战略风险管理

1、1STRATEGICRISKMANAGEMENTWhywouldrisk-averseindividualsandentitieseverexposethemselvesintentionallytoriskandincreasethatexposureovertime?Onereasonisthattheybelievethattheycanexploittheseriskstoadvantageandgeneratevalue.Howelsecanyouexplainwhycompaniesembarkintoemergingmarketsthathavesubstantialpoliticalandeconomicriskorintotechnologieswherethegroundruleschangeonaday-to-daybasis?Bythesametoken,themostsuccessfulcompaniesineverysectorandineachgeneration–GeneralMotorsinthe1920s,IBMinthe1950sand1960s。

2、,MicrosoftandIntelinthe1980sand1990sandGoogleinthisdecade-shareacommoncharacteristic.Theyachievedtheirsuccessnotbyavoidingriskbutbyseekingitout.Therearesomewhowouldattributethesuccessofthesecompaniesandotherslikethemtoluck,butthatcanexplainbusinessesthatareone-timewonders–asinglesuccessfulproductorservice.Successfulcompaniesareabletogobacktothewellagainandagain,replicatingtheirsuccessonnewproductsandinnewmarkets.Todoso,theymusthaveatemplatefordealingwithriskthatgivesthemanadvantageoverthecompeti。

3、tion.Inthischapter,weconsiderhowbesttoorganizetheprocessofrisktakingtomaximizetheoddsofsuccess.Intheprocess,wewillhavetoweavethroughmanydifferentfunctionalareasofbusiness,fromcorporatestrategytofinancetooperationsmanagement,thathavetraditionallynotbeenontalkingterms.Whyexploitrisk?Itistruethatriskexposesustopotentiallossesbutriskalsoprovidesuswithopportunities.Asimplevisionofsuccessfulrisktakingisthatweshouldexpandourexposuretoupsideriskwhilereducingthepotentialfordownsiderisk.Inthissection,,wew。

4、illfirstrevisitthediscussionofthepayofftorisktakingthatweinitiatedinchapter9andthenlookattheevidenceonthesuccessofsuchastrategy.ValueandRiskTakingItissimplesttoconsiderthepayofftoriskinaconventionaldiscountedcashflowmodel.Thevalueofafirmisthepresentvalueoftheexpectedcashflows,discountedbackatarisk-adjustedrateandderivesfromfourfundamentals–thecashflowsfrom2existinginvestments,thegrowthrateinthesecashflowsoverahigh-growthperiodaccompaniedusuallybyexcessreturnsonnewinvestments,thelengthofthishighg。

5、rowthperiodandthecostoffunding(capital)bothexistingandnewinvestments.Inthiscontext,theeffectsofrisktakingcanmanifestinallofthesevariables:-Thecashflowsfromexistinginvestmentsreflectnotonlythequalityoftheseinvestmentsandtheefficiencywiththeyaremanaged,butalsoreflecttheconsequencesofpastdecisionsmadebythefirmonhowmuchrisktotakeandinwhatforms.Afirmthatismorefocusedonwhichrisksittakes,whichonesitavoidsandwhichonesitshouldpassthroughtoitsinvestorsmaybeabletonotonlydeterminewhichofitsexistinginvestmen。

6、tsitshouldkeepbutalsogeneratehighercashflowsfromtheseinvestments.Arisk-aversecompanythatisexcessivelycautiouswheninvestingwillhavefewerinvestmentsandreportlowercashflowsfromthoseinvestments.-Theexcessreturnsonnewinvestmentsandthelengthofthehighgrowthperiodwillbedirectlyaffectedbydecisionsonhowmuchrisktotakeinnewinvestmentsandhowwellisbothriskisassessedanddealtwith.Firmsthataresuperiorrisktakerswillgenerategreaterexcessreturnsforlongerperiodsonnewinvestments.-Therelationshipbetweenthecostofcapita。

7、landrisktakingwilldependinlargepartonthetypesofriskstakenbythefirm.Whileincreasedexposuretomarketriskwillusuallytranslateintohighercostsofcapital,higherfirm-specificriskmayhavelittleornoimpactonthecostsofcapital,especiallyforfirmswithdiversifiedinvestors.Beingselectiveaboutriskexposurecanminimizetheimpactondiscountrates.Thefinalandmostcompletemeasureofgoodrisktakingiswhetherthevalueofafirmincreasesasaconsequenceofitsrisktaking,which,inturn,willbedeterminedbywhetherthepositiveeffectsoftherisktaki。

8、ng–higherexcessreturnsoveralongergrowthperiod–exceedthenegativeconsequences–morevolatileearningsandapotentiallyhighercostofcapital.Figure11.1capturestheeffectsofrisktakingonallofthedimensionsofvalue.3Figure11.1:RiskTakingandValueCashflowsfromexistingassetsFocusedrisktakingcanleadtobetterresourceallocationandmoreefficientoperatioins:Highercashflowsfromexistingassets---DiscountRateWhileincresedrisktakingisgenerallyviewedaspushingupdiscountrates,selectiverisktakingcanminimizethisimpact.Excessreturn。

9、sduringhighgrowthperiodTheompetitiveedgeyouhaveonsometypesofriskcanbeexploitedtogeneratehigherexcessreturnsoninvestmentsduringhighgrowthperiodLengthofperiodofexcessreturns:ExploitingrisksbetterthanyourcompetitorscangiveyoualongerhighgrowthperiodValuetodaycanbehigherasaresultofrisktakinigTheotherwaytoconsiderthepayofftorisktakingistousetherealoptionsframeworkdevelopedinchapter8.Iftheessenceofgoodrisktakingisthatyouincreaseyourshareofgoodrisk–theupside-whilerestrictingyourexposuretobadrisk–thedown。

10、side–itshouldtakeonthecharacteristicsofacalloption.Figure11.2capturestheoptioncomponentinherentingoodrisktaking:Figure11.2:RiskTakingasaCallOption4Inotherwords,goodriskscreatesignificantupsideandlimiteddownside.Thisisthekeytowhyfirmsseekoutriskintherealoptionsframework,whetheritisinthecontextofhighercommoditypricevolatility,ifyouareanoilorcommoditycompanywithundevelopedreserves,ormoreuncertainmarkets,ifyouareapharmaceuticalcompanyconsideringR&Dinvestments.Ifweacceptthisviewofrisktaking,itwilladdv。