战略风险管理

1STRATEGICRISKMANAGEMENTWhywouldrisk-averseindividualsandentitieseverexposethemselvesintentionallytoriskandincreasethatexposureovertime?Onereasonisthattheybelievethattheycanexploittheseriskstoadvantageandgeneratevalue.Howelsecanyouexplainwhycompaniesembarkintoemergingmarketsthathavesubstantialpoliticalandeconomicriskorintotechnologieswherethegroundruleschangeonaday-to-daybasis?Bythesametoken,themostsuccessfulcompaniesineverysectorandineachgeneration–GeneralMotorsinthe1920s,IBMinthe1950sand1960s,MicrosoftandIntelinthe1980sand1990sandGoogleinthisdecade-shareacommoncharacteristic.Theyachievedtheirsuccessnotbyavoidingriskbutbyseekingitout.Therearesomewhowouldattributethesuccessofthesecompaniesandotherslikethemtoluck,butthatcanexplainbusinessesthatareone-timewonders–asinglesuccessfulproductorservice.Successfulcompaniesareabletogobacktothewellagainandagain,replicatingtheirsuccessonnewproductsandinnewmarkets.Todoso,theymusthaveatemplatefordealingwithriskthatgivesthemanadvantageoverthecompetition.Inthischapter,weconsiderhowbesttoorganizetheprocessofrisktakingtomaximizetheoddsofsuccess.Intheprocess,wewillhavetoweavethroughmanydifferentfunctionalareasofbusiness,fromcorporatestrategytofinancetooperationsmanagement,thathavetraditionallynotbeenontalkingterms.Whyexploitrisk?Itistruethatriskexposesustopotentiallossesbutriskalsoprovidesuswithopportunities.Asimplevisionofsuccessfulrisktakingisthatweshouldexpandourexposuretoupsideriskwhilereducingthepotentialfordownsiderisk.Inthissection,,wewillfirstrevisitthediscussionofthepayofftorisktakingthatweinitiatedinchapter9andthenlookattheevidenceonthesuccessofsuchastrategy.ValueandRiskTakingItissimplesttoconsiderthepayofftoriskinaconventionaldiscountedcashflowmodel.Thevalueofafirmisthepresentvalueoftheexpectedcashflows,discountedbackatarisk-adjustedrateandderivesfromfourfundamentals–thecashflowsfrom2existinginvestments,thegrowthrateinthesecashflowsoverahigh-growthperiodaccompaniedusuallybyexcessreturnsonnewinvestments,thelengthofthishighgrowthperiodandthecostoffunding(capital)bothexistingandnewinvestments.Inthiscontext,theeffectsofrisktakingcanmanifestinallofthesevariables:-Thecashflowsfromexistinginvestmentsreflectnotonlythequalityoftheseinvestmentsandtheefficiencywiththeyaremanaged,butalsoreflecttheconsequencesofpastdecisionsmadebythefirmonhowmuchrisktotakeandinwhatforms.Afirmthatismorefocusedonwhichrisksittakes,whichonesitavoidsandwhichonesitshouldpassthroughtoitsinvestorsmaybeabletonotonlydeterminewhichofitsexistinginvestmentsitshouldkeepbutalsogeneratehighercashflowsfromtheseinvestments.Arisk-aversecompanythatisexcessivelycautiouswheninvestingwillhavefewerinvestmentsandreportlowercashflowsfromthoseinvestments.-Theexcessreturnsonnewinvestmentsandthelengthofthehighgrowthperiodwillbedirectlyaffectedbydecisionsonhowmuchrisktotakeinnewinvestmentsandhowwellisbothriskisassessedanddealtwith.Firmsthataresuperiorrisktakerswillgenerategreaterexcessreturnsforlongerperiodsonnewinvestments.-Therelationshipbetweenthecostofcapitalandrisktakingwilldependinlargepartonthetypesofriskstakenbythefirm.Whileincreasedexposuretomarketriskwillusuallytranslateintohighercostsofcapital,higherfirm-specificriskmayhavelittleornoimpactonthecostsofcapital,especiallyforfirmswithdiversifiedinvestors.Beingselectiveaboutriskexposurecanminimizetheimpactondiscountrates.Thefinalandmostcompletemeasureofgoodrisktakingiswhetherthevalueofafirmincreasesasaconsequenceofitsrisktaking,which,inturn,willbedeterminedbywhetherthepositiveeffectsoftherisktaking–higherexcessreturnsoveralongergrowthperiod–exceedthenegativeconsequences–morevolatileearningsandapotentiallyhighercostofcapital.Figure11.1capturestheeffectsofrisktakingonallofthedimensionsofvalue.3Figure11.1:RiskTakingandValueCashflowsfromexistingassetsFocusedrisktakingcanleadtobetterresourceallocationandmoreefficientoperatioins:Highercashflowsfromexistingassets---DiscountRateWhileincresedrisktakingisgenerallyviewedaspushingupdiscountrates,selectiverisktakingcanminimizethisimpact.ExcessreturnsduringhighgrowthperiodTheompetitiveedgeyouhaveonsometypesofriskcanbeexploitedtogeneratehigherexcessreturnsoninvestmentsduringhighgrowthperiodLengthofperiodofexcessreturns:ExploitingrisksbetterthanyourcompetitorscangiveyoualongerhighgrowthperiodValuetodaycanbehigherasaresultofrisktakinigTheotherwaytoconsiderthepayofftorisktakingistousetherealoptionsframeworkdevelopedinchapter8.Iftheessenceofgoodrisktakingisthatyouincreaseyourshareofgoodrisk–theupside-whilerestrictingyourexposuretobadrisk–thedownside–itshouldtakeonthecharacteristicsofacalloption.Figure11.2capturestheoptioncomponentinherentingoodrisktaking:Figure11.2:RiskTakingasaCallOption4Inotherwords,goodriskscreatesignificantupsideandlimiteddownside.Thisisthekeytowhyfirmsseekoutriskintherealoptionsframework,whetheritisinthecontextofhighercommoditypricevolatility,ifyouareanoilorcommoditycompanywithundevelopedreserves,ormoreuncertainmarkets,ifyouareapharmaceuticalcompanyconsideringR&Dinvestments.Ifweacceptthisviewofrisktaking,itwilladdv