气候变化风险的新型分类

27420087GEOGRAPHICALRESEARCHVol127,No14July,2008:2008201210;:2008204214:(2006BAD20B05):(19792),,,E2mail:zhangyhong105b@igsnrr1ac1cn1,2,1,1,1,3(11,100101;21,100049;31,100038):,(InternationalRiskGov2ernanceCouncil,IRGC)():;IPCC,,;IPCC,,:;;:100020585(2008)04207632121IPCC:1000174,50,,[1]:,,,,[24],,,[5,6],(),IPCC,[4],,(,)(,,)()(,)[79][10],(IRGC)76427()[11],,,IRGC,,,,,IRGC,IRGC[11],,,,,,,,,IRGC,,,[12],()()[13],[14],,,,[13],,,IRGC,,,IRGC,,,2,,,(),,(creeping)[15,16](,):(,,);(4:7651Tab11Theidentificationofclimatechangerisks(),CO2,,,,,;,,,,,CO2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,CO2,(),,CO2,,,CO2,,CO2,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),;,,;,766271,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,)[4],,[17],,,,,,,,,[24,1843](1)1,,,[44],,,,,,,3IRGC(IRGC)2IRGCTab12ThedefinitionandcharacterizationofriskcategoriesofIRGC,,,,,,,(InterveningVariables),,,,,,(),:IRGC[11]4:767(,2),,,,[11]IRGC,,,,,[11],,,/,,,[45],,,,,;,,,;,,,;,,,,,,IRGC,4411IRGC,,[46],IRGCU={x1,x2,111,xn},R1R2R3R4,U(x1,x2,111,xn)(),()Ri(x),[0,1],UxRi,,,Ri(x)=1xRi,Ri(x)=0xRix:;;7682741111x,x,,IPCC,,,[47],,(con2fidence)(likelihood)[48],,(Confidence)IPCC,5:(9),(8),(5),(2),(1)(Likeli2hood),,[14],,,7:(99%),(90%99%),(66%90%),(33%66%),(10%33%),(1%l0%),(1%)[48,49]1(Manning,2006)Fig11Schematicdepictinginter2relationshipbetweenlikelihoodandconfidence,,,[47]IPCC[47]1,,,,,,,,1AB,(50%,1D)(1C)[49],[4749],,IPCC,41112(C)(L),:,,,4:769;()[14],,,;,,,,,,(2)2Fig12SchematicdepictingthemembershipfunctionoffourriskcategoriesbyConfidenceandLikelihood,2,[50],,1):C:R1(C)=2172e-1C(C0)(1)L:R1(L)=1-e-(L0.3)2(2),,,016014,:R1=0.62.72e-1c+0.4(1-e-(L0.3)2)(3)2),:R2=0.6(e-33(C-0.8)2)+0.411+9(L-018)2(4)770273):R3=0.611+7(C-015)2+0.4(1-e-(0.6L)2)(L0)(5)4):R4=0.6(e-6(C-0.1)2)+0.411+9(L-013)2(6)41113x,,,x(C,L),xRiRi(x)=max1j4Rj(C,L)(7),IPCC,015,78%,,R1=0156;R2=0133;R3=0183;R4=0155:R3=max1j4Rj(C,L)=0183(8)R3,,4123Fig13Schematicdepictingthequalitativerelationshipoffourriskcategorieswiththelevelofagreementandamountofevidence,IPCC,,,IPCC,,,,,(Levelofa2greement&amountofevidence)IPCC,,[48]3IRGC413,,(3)IPCC,,34:771,,IRGC[11]3Tab13Theriskclassificationresultsofclimatechange;;;;;();;;;;;();;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;()5,IRGC,,,IRGC,,,,:(1),,,IPCC,IPCC(2)IPCC,,,,,,(3),,,,,(4)IRGC,,IRGC,,,,(5),,77227IPCC[47],,,,,[51],,,,::[1]IPCC1ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasis2WorkingGroupIContributiontoIPCCFourthAssess2mentReport1London:CambridgeUniversityPress,20071[2]IPCC1ClimateChange1995:Impacts,AdaptationandMitigationofClimateChange,workinggroupreport1London:CambridgeUniversityPress,19951[3]IPCC1ClimateChange2001:Impacts,AdaptationandVulnerabilityofClimateChange,workinggroupreport1London:CambridgeUniversityPress,20011[4]IPCC1ClimateChange2007:Impacts,AdaptationandVulnerability2WorkingGroupIIContributiontoIPCCFourthAssessmentReport1London:CambridgeUniversityPress,20071[5]NationalResearchCouncil1RediscoveringGeography:NewRelevanceforScienceandSociety1Washington,DC:NationalAcademyPress,19971[6]DemerittD1Theconstructionofglobalwarmingandthepoliticsofscience1AnnalsoftheAssociationofAmericanGeographers,2001,91(2):3073371[7]OppenheimerM1DefiningDangerousAnthropogenicInterference:TheRoleofScience,theLimitsofScience1RiskAnalysis,2005,25(6):139914071[8]PatwardhanA,SchneiderSH,SemenovSM1AssessingthesciencetoaddressUNFCCCArticle2:Aconceptpa2perrelatingtocrosscuttingthemenumberfour1Geneva:IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange1Availableat:[9]OppenheimerM,PetsonkA1Article2oftheUNFCCC:Historicalorigins,recentinterpretations1ClimaticChange,2005,73:1952261[10]MorganMG,FlorigHK,MichaelLD1Categorizingrisksforriskranking1RiskAnalysis,2000,20(1):49581[11]RennO1Whitepaperonriskgovernance:Towardsanintegrativeapproach1WhitepaperNo11oftheInternationalRiskGovernanceCouncil1Availableat:[12]ByrdDM,CothernCR1Introductiontoriskanalysis:Asystematicapproachtoscience2baseddecisionmaking1Rockville,MD,USA:Governmentinstitutes120001[13]StirlingA1Risk,precautionandscience:Towardsamoreconstructivepolicydebate1EuropeanMolecularBiologyOrganizationReports,2007,8(4):3093151[14]RisbeyJS,KandlikarM1ExpressionsoflikelihoodandconfidenceintheIPCCuncertaintyassessmentprocess1ClimaticChange,2007,85:19311[15]VanAalstM1Mainstreamingclimateriskmanagementintodevelopmentplanning1TheGlobalForumonSustain2ableDevelopment(GFSD),OECD,20041[16]GlantzMH1CreepingenvironmentalproblemsandsustainabledevelopmentintheAralSeaBasin1Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,19991[17]RogerNJ1WhendoPOETSbecomedangerous?IPCCworkshopondescribingscientificuncertaintiesinclimatechangetosupportanalysisofriskandofoptions,20041[18]11:,20071[19],,,1():14:773,2005,1(2):51571[20],,,11,2005,1(3):1151181[21],,;,11,2005,24(5):6536631[22]ObersteinerM,AzarC,KauppiP,etal1Managingclimaterisk1Science,2001,294(5543):7867871[23]KleinenT,Petschel2HeldG1Integratedassessmentofchangesinfloodingprobabilitiesduetoclimatechange1Cli2maticChange,2007,81:2833121[24]LentonR1Waterandclimatevariability:Developmentimpactsandcopingstrategies1WaterScienceandTechnolo2gy,2004,49:1241[25]ArajoMB