河流水质风险评价的灰色随机风险率方法

:2001-02-13;:2001-07-19:(1965-),,,,,E-mail:[e-mail]:1000-0690(2002)02-0249-041,2,3(1.,410081;2.,100101;3.,450004):,,,,,,,,:;;;;;:X143:A,2060,2070,20602070,2080,[111],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[12],,,[25],,,,1[13]1([14])PG:P[0,1],PG(,);1PG()(,,PG)2(),,,FG(x)=PG(x),(-x)(1)22220024SCIENTIAGEOGRAPHICASINICAVol.22No.2Apr.,2001©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,PG3(),FG(x),fG(x),x,FG(x)=x-fG(y)dy(2)fG(x)FG(x),,(2)FG(x)=[FG3(x),F3G(x)]=[x-fG3(y)dy,x-f3G(y)dy](3)4()(,,PG),,FG(x),-|x|dFG(x)(4),(),EG()=[EG3(),E3G()]=[-xdFG3(x),-xdFG3(x)](5)5()(,,PG),,FG(x),,DG()=[DG3(),D3G()]=-[-EG()]2dFG(x)=-[-E3G()]2dFG3(x),-[-E3G()]2dFG3(x)(6)22.1,,()(),,,,,,(CG)(CS)RG=PfG(CGCS)(7):PfG,RG,2.2n,m,Cij(i=1,,n;j=1,m)ij,CGii,Csii,CGi,i(DO),(RGi),RGi=[R3i,R3i]=PfG(CGiCsi)(8),RGi2.3,,,,,[15],(Bi),,,,Bi,()BB1B2Bn,()…B…B1…B2…Bn,RG:RG=[R3,R3]=PfG(B)=1-PsG(…B)=1-PsG(…B1…B2…Bi…Bn)(9)=1-ni=1PsG(…Bi)=1-ni=1[1-PfG(Bi)]05222©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.:PfG(Bi)i;PsG(…Bi)i3,CuPbZnHg[16],CuPbZnHg,CuPbZnHg,CuPbZnHg,[16],,[1719]:CuPbZnHg,()(3,3)[20],11CuPbZnHg(mg/L)Table1TheupperandlowermeanvaluesandstandarddeviationsofCu,Pb,ZnandHgintheYellowRiverattheHuayuankousection(mg/L)CuPbZnHg0.2380.3270.6100.0003930.3040.4480.9030.0006530.0940.1580.3630.000251(8)(9),CuPbZnHg,22(%)Table2Thegrey2stochasticrisksforassessmentparametersconcentrationsexceedingthestandardvaluesintheYellowRiverattheHuayuankousection(%)CuPbZnHg(0.0069,0.1750)(62.93,88.88)(14.92,0.4364)(64.8,92.07)(88.90,99.50)(0.0069,0.1750)(57.14,85.54)(0.37,3.59)(2.74,18.41)(58.47,88.46)2,Cu99%,Pb14.5%42.9%,Zn56.4%85.1%,Hg81.6%97.3%[17],,4,,,,,,,,:[1],.[J].,1987,7(1):6071.[2].[J].,1990,10(3):218223.[3].[J].,1992,(10):7378.[4],,,.[J].,1998,18(5):403406.[5],.CSPPC[J].,1999,(12):15.[6].[J].,1985,(6):3033.[7],,.[J].,1990,10(2):258262.[8],.[J].,1991,(6):3540.[9],.[J].,1988,(12):15.1522:©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.[10].[J].,1995,(2):410.[11].[J].,1994,14(4):426430.[12].[M].:,2000.4953.[13],.[J].,2001,(4):16.[14],.[A]..[C].:,1994.178182.[15]TimothyLJ,VesilindPA.Probabilisticenvironmentalriskofhaz2ardousmaterials[J].JournalofEnvironmentalEngineering,1992,118(6):878-889.[16],,,.[M].:,1998.98113.[17]FinneyBA,BowlesDS,WindhamMP.Randomdifferentiale2quationsinriverwaterqualitymodeling[J].WaterResourcesRes.,1982,18(1):122-134.[18]DeweyRJ.Applicationofstochasticdissolvedoxygenmodel[J].J.EnvironmentalEng.ASCE,1984,110(2):412-429.[18]PadgettWJ,RaoANV.EstimationofBODandDOprobabilitydistribution[J].J.EnvironmentalEng.ASCE,1988,114(1):74-90.[19].[J].,1988,(3):4148.[20]WassermanLA.Belieffunctionsandstatisticalinference[J].CanadianJ.Statist.,1990,18(3):183-196.Grey2stochasticRiskAssessmentMethodforRiverWaterQualityHUGuo2hua1,XiaJun2,ZHAOPei2lun3(1.CollegeofLand&Resources,HunanNormalUniversity,Changsha,Hunan410081;2.InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch,CAS,Beijing100101;3.InstituteofWaterResourceProtectionoftheYellowRiver,Zhengzhou,Henan450004)Abstract:Theriverwaterenvironmentsystemisasystemwithmanyuncertainties.Theriskassessmentquantifyingtheinfluenceofuncertaintiesonriverwaterqualityhavebeenpaidattentiontowidely.However,themostofresearchonriskassessmentforriverwaterqualityconfinedtoquantifystochasticuncertaintyoftheriverwaterenvironmentalsystemusingthemethodofstatistics.Theresearchonquantifyingtheriskduetogreyuncertaintyoftheriverwaterenviron2mentalsystemisdoneless.Basedonthetheoryofprobabilityandgreysystemapproach,theconceptsofgreyprobability,greyprobabilitydistribution,greyprobabilitydensity,greyexpectationandgreyvariancearedefinedinthispaper.Theconceptofgrey2stochasticriskforwaterqualityconcentrationsexceedingthestandardvaluesispresentedtoquantifytheinfluenceofstochasticuncertaintyandgreyuncertaintyonriverwaterquality.Theassessmentmodelsofgrey2stochasticriskforwaterqualityconcentrationsexceedingthestandardvaluesareestablished.Intheassessmentmodelfortheindividualparameter,thecontaminantconcentrationismodeledasarandomvari2ablewithagreyprobabilitydistributionandtheriskforcontaminantconcentrationexceedingthestandardvalueisex2pressedwithgreyprobabilitythegrey2stochasticriskforwaterqualityconcentrationsexceedingthestandardvalues.Inthemodelofcomprehensiveassessmentformultipleparameters,theriverwaterenvironmentalsystemisconsideredasthereliabilitysystemtoundertakeusefulfunction,andtheresultthattheconcentrationofanyoneofwaterqualityparametersexceedsthestandardvalueshowsthattheusefulfunctionofriverwaterenvironmentalsystemcannotbeguaranteed.Lastly,thecomprehensiverisksforwaterqualityconcentrationsexceedingthestandardvaluesarecomputedbyusingtheapproachofreliabilitysystem.Anexampleofapplicationtoevaluatethegrey2stochasticrisksforheavymet2alsconcentrationsexceedingthestandardvaluesintheYellowRiverattheHuayuankousectionisgiven.Theresultspro2videmoreinformationandaresatisfactory.Keywords:Waterquality;Greyuncertainty;Greyprobability;Greyprobabilitydistribution;Grey2stochasticriskforwaterqualityconcentrationsexce