第七讲项目风险管理

ProjectRiskManagementArtOrScience?学习提示学习内容风险与风险管理的含义项目风险管理过程1.风险管理计划2.风险识别3.定性的风险分析4.定量的风险分析5.风险反应计划6.风险的监督与控制7.软件的应用学习重点项目风险管理过程学习难点1.风险管理计划2.风险评估WhatriskisAbasicdictionarydefinitionsaysthatriskis“thepossibilityoflossorinjury”RiskisuncertaintythathaveaNegativeOrpositiveeffectonmeetingprojectobjectivesNegativeRisk(1960S-1970S)Ageneraldefinition(1980S-1990S)风险的属性f(probability,impact)f(threatinsurancechance)certainRiskUncertainProjectriskmanagementProjectriskmanagementistheartandscienceofidentifying,analyzing,andrespondingtoriskthroughoutthelifeofaprojectandinthebestinterestofmeetingtheprojectobjectives风险管理是对项目管理过程中如何处理风险事件的决策和控制过程项目风险管理是在项目生命期内，为了最大限度地满足项目目标，识别、分析风险并做出相应反应的艺术和科学RiskpreferenceUtilityPotentialpayoffRiskneutralRisk-averseRiskseekingtheamountofsatisfactionorpleasurereceivedfromapotentialpayoff决策过程的三种规范确定状态风险不确定性What’sthedifferencebetweenthecrisismanagementandtheriskmanagementProjectmanagementmaturitybyindustrygroupandknowledgeareaKEY:1=LowestMaturityrating5=HighestMaturityRatingEngineering/constructiontelecommunicationsInformationsystemsHi-TechmanufacturingScope3.523.453.253.37Time3.553.143.033.50Cost3.743.223.203.97Quality2.913.222.883.26Humanresources3.183.202.933.18communication3.533.533.213.48risk2.932.872.752.76procurement3.333.012.913.33Itisimportanttonotethat:Riskmanagementisaninvestment-therearecostassociatedwithIt.•natureoftheproject,•Theexperienceoftheprojectteam,•constrainsimposedonbothCostexceedpotentialbenefitMinimizingpotentialnegativeriskWhilemaximizingpotentialpositiveriskdependsgoalsprincipleThemajorprocessinvolvedinriskmanagement1.Riskmanagementplanning2.Riskidentification3.Qualitativeriskanalysis4.Quantitativeriskanalysis5.Riskresponseplanning6.Riskmonitoringandcontrol编制风险管理计划识别风险风险的定性和定量分析编制风险应对计划风险监督与管理谢谢！风险管理流程风险管理风险监控风险规划风险评估风险应对反馈风险文件风险识别风险分析反馈线中：虚线表示存在反馈实线表示可能存在反馈风险应对计划/准备过程风险识别最高风险的清单制定风险应对战略风险应对手段的选择和分析最佳选择风险应对工具最佳实施方法论证后的风险应对计划修订最高风险的报告状态报告其他步骤的反馈风险分析风险优先级和整合实施风险应对计划可能性与影响风险评估风险监控和报告风险监控风险事件清单风险管理计划过程计划和控制组织和培训风险规划RiskmanagementplanningRiskmanagementplanningistheprocessofdecidinghowtoapproachandplanforriskmanagementactivitiesforaproject。Ariskmanagementplandocumentstheproceduresformanagingriskthroughouttheproject风险管理计划编制就是决定采用何种方法进行风险管理活动并制定相应计划管理过程。风险管理计划是管理整个项目生命期中的风险程序性文件Topicaddressedinariskmanagementplan1.Methodology:howwillriskmanagementbeperformedonthisproject?Whattoolsanddataresourcesareavailableandapplicable？2.Rolesandresponsibilities:whoaretheindividualsresponsibleforimplementingspecifictasksandprovidingdeliverablesrelatedtoriskmanagement？3.Budgetandschedule:whataretheestimatedcostandschedulesforperformingriskrelatedactivities？方法论：项目中的风险管理怎样被执行？可以得到的并切实可行的工具和数据资源是什么?角色和责任：谁是执行特定任务并对风险管理提供可交付性成果的个人或群体？预算和进度：执行与与风险相关的进度和估计的成本是多少？Topicaddressedinariskmanagementplan1.Riskcategories:whatarethemaincategoriesofrisksthatshouldbeaddressedonthisproject?Isthereariskbreakdownstructurefortheproject?2.Riskprobabilityandimpact:howwilltheprobabilitiesandimpactsofriskitemsbeassessed?Whatscoringandinterpretationmethodswillbeusedforthequalitativeandquantitativeanalysisofrisks3.Riskdocumenting:whatreportingformatsandprocesswillbeusedforriskmanagementactivities.风险的种类：项目中涉及的主要风险的种类有哪些？是否编制出与WBS和OBS相应项目风险结构分解图？风险的概率和影响：风险项目发生的概率和对项目目标产生的影响如何评价？什么样的打分和解释的方法可用来定性和定量地分析项目风险？风险登记：采用怎样的报告形式和流程用来登记风险管理活动。ProjectdocumentsCorporateriskmanagementpoliciesRiskcategoriesLessons-learnedreportsfrompastprojectTemplatesforcreatingariskmanagementplanTherisktolerancesofvariousstakeholdersAriskmanagementplan:summarizeshowriskmanagementwillbeperformedonaparticularproject完善的风险计划威胁与灾害应急方案与缓和计划损失和破坏不完善的风险计划威胁与灾害应急方案与缓和计划损失和破坏RiskIdentificationIdentifyingriskistheprocessofunderstandingwhatpotentialeventsmighthurtorenhanceaparticularproject。风险识别是了解可能损害和增强特定项目效益的潜在风险事件的过程。1.Toolsandtechniques2.Theriskregister项目风险管理计划项目计划信息：工作分解结构：项目的产品描述、项目的工期和成本估计、资源规划、采购计划、假设前提和限制条件；风险类别历史资料：项目文档、公开发表的资料、项目团队成员的知识和经验访谈法SWOT检查表法假设前提分析图示技术文件审核头脑风暴德尔菲法IdentifiedriskstriggersSuggestionsforidentifyingrisksBrainstorming:isatechniquesforbywhichagroupattemptstogenerateideasorfindasolutionforaspecificproblembyamassingideasspontaneouslyandwithoutjudgmentDelphitechniqueistoderiveaconsensusamongapanelofexpertswhomakepredictionsaboutfuturedevelopmentsInterviewing:isafact-findingtechniqueforcollectinginformationinface-to-face,phone,e-mail,orinstant-messagingdiscussionsTheRiskRegisterAriskregisterisadocumentthatcontainsresultsofvariousriskmanagementprocess,oftendisplayedinatableorspreadsheetformat.Itisatoolfordocumentingpotentialriskeventsandrelatedinformation。Riskeventsrefertospecific,uncertaineventsthatmayoccurtothedetrimentorenhancementoftheproject风险登记表是一种记录各种风险管理过程结果的文件，通常以表格的形式给出，是用来描述潜在风险事件和相关信息的文件风险事件是指那些特定的可能对项目产生有利或不利影响的不确定事件SampleRiskRegisterNORANKRISKDESCRIPTIONCATEGORYROOTCAUSETRIGGERSPOTENTIALRESPONSESRISKOWERPROBABILITYIMPACTSTATUSR441R212QualitativeRiskAnalysisProbability/impactMatrixorchartToptenitemtrackingExpertjudgmentSampleprobability/impactMatrixrisk6risk9Risk1risk4Risk3risk7Risk2Risk5risk11Risk