中国可持续发展问题与土地

:100020585(2002)0320324207:2001211208;:2002201215:(40171007);(KZCX22310205):(19652),,,LUCC80,4/,(,100101):/(LUCC),,,,,/,/,LUCC:;/(LUCC);:F06113;F301124:A1,---(PRED),[1],,,[2],,,,WTO/(LUCC),,,,2080,,/,/[35]1999,IGBPIHDPLUCC21320025GEOGRAPHICALRESEARCHVol.21,No.3May,2002©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.[6],/,LUCC(IIASA)/,LUCC[7,8]IIASA,,()90,LUCC,[9,10],2000,;,2001,LUCC,,2//,(1),,,,,,,,1/Fig.1RelativemodelbetweenLUCCandsustainabledevelopment;,,,[11,12],,,3:/325©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.4:(1),;,(2),510,,(3),,,(4),,,3LUCC311,/,/,,,4:/,/,,/,,,/,1030,,,20(),,/312312111020/(1),/,/(2),,,1020/32621©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,(3),/,,31212/(1)WTO,/;;();/(2),,,(3),(4)//31213/(1)(ChinaLUS)1020/,,(2)1030,,/,,/(3)/,,4LUCC411/()(2),,10201030(/),,()/,3:/327©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,;/,/,2/Fig.2Thespace2timescaleandkeypointsoflanduseandlandcoverchanges4123/Fig.3TechnicalwaysforastudyoflanduseandlandcoverchangesLUCC/,32821©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.;/,()-/---LUCC[13](3)5/,,,/,/,/,,,/,,LUCC,--/-,,,/:[1]./:,,2001,20(6):645652.[2]TurnerBL,.:..AMBIO,1994,23(1):9195[3],./.:,2000.[4],,..,2001,20(2):129138.[5]TurnerBL,SkoleD,SandersonSetal.Landuseandlandcoverchange.Science/ResearchPlan,IGBPReportNo.35&HDPreportNo.7.Stockholm:IGBP,1995.[6]LambinEF,BauliesX,BockstaelN.Landuseandlandcoverchange.ImplementationStrategy.IGBPreportNo.48,IHDPreportNo.10,1999.[7]KitamuraT,KagatsumeM,HoshinoS.AtheoreticalconsiderationonthelandusechangemodelfortheJapancasestudyarea.IIASAInterimReportIR2972064,Laxenburg,1997.[8]VerburgePH,DeKoningGHJ,KokK.Aspatialexplicitallocationprocedureformodellingthepatternoflandusechangebaseduponactuallanduse.EcologicalModelling,1999,116:4561.[9]..,2001,20(3):307314.[10]..,2001,56(4):426436.[11],,..,1999,14(1):9396.[12]..,2001,20(3):247253.[13],./.,2001,15(4):3134.3:/329©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.Thestudyframeworkoflanduse/coverchangebasedonsustainabledevelopmentinChinaLIUYan2sui,CHENBai2ming(InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch,CAS,Beijing100101,China)Abstract:Beingthecoreandfrontierissueintheglobalenvironmentalchangeandsustainabledevelopmentdisciplines,studiesonlanduse/coverchange(LUCC)hasgainedincreasinglyat2tention.China,restrictedbyitslargepopulationandlessland,isoneofthedevelopingcoun2triesfacingseriousecologicalandenvironmentalproblemsintheworld.Manyproblemsofsus2tainabledevelopmentconfrontingChinahaveinherentandinevitableassociationswithLUCC.Therefore,systematicLUCCresearches,aimingattheimplementationofsustainabledevelop2mentstrategiesinChina,havegreatsignificanceinbothacademicandpracticalrespects.TheirrelationsbetweentheproblemsofsustainabledevelopmentandLUCC,andtheresearchob2jects,contents,investigativemethodsandkeyissuesofLUCCbasedonsustainabledevelop2mentinChinaarebrieflydiscussedinthispaper.TheinterrelationshipbetweenLUCCandsustainabledevelopmentinChinaisverycom2plex.Generallyspeaking,thelinkagecanbeshownasthebalancebetweenland2waterresourcesdemandandsupply.Thus,theorientationandcontentofLUCCandsustainabledevelopmentresearchesshouldbedevelopedalongwiththecriticalissuesforsustainabledevelopment2drivingforceofhumanbeing2scenariosofLUCC2optimizeddecision2makingforsustainabledevelop2ment.Meanwhile,differentsituationsunderdifferenttemporalandspatialdimensionsshouldbeincorporatedintotheresearches.Thekeyissuestobestudiedarehowtorevealthelandsup2plyanddemandrelationshipsunderthemultipledrivingforces,aswellasitschangingextentsandinfluences.Uponthem,theframeworkofscientificdecision2makingandcomprehensivemanagementforLUCCinChina,whichisconfinedbythesustainabledevelopmentrelationshipbetweenfoodandresourcessupply,ecologicalprotectionandeconomicgrowth,isproposed.Keywords:Chinesesustainabledevelopment;landuse/coverchange(LUCC);sustainablelanduse33021©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.