中国风能资源和风电场发展规划设想中国风能

中国风能资源和风电场发展规划设想中国风能资源和风电场发展规划设想中国风能资源和风电场发展规划设想中国风能资源和风电场发展规划设想WINDENERGYRESOURCEINCHINAANDPLANNINGOFWINDFARMDEVELOPMENT施鹏飞国家电力公司水电规划设计总院ShiPengfeiHydropowerPlanningGeneralInstituteStatePower离网型风力发电机Off-gridwindturbinegenerator单机容量(unitcapacity):100W－10kW年产量(annualproduction):14,000台(units)累计产量(cumulativeproduction):180,000台(units)已经出口到印尼、越南、日本、挪威、英国等。ExportedtoIndonesia,Vietnam,Japan,Norway,UK,etc.中国风能资源的储量和分布中国风能资源的储量和分布中国风能资源的储量和分布中国风能资源的储量和分布PotentialanddistributionofwindenergyresourceinChina中国陆地10m高度层实际可开发的风能储量为2.53亿kW。“practicalwindpotentialcanbeutilized”at10mheightinChina,ithasbeenestimatedtobe253GW.可供经济开发的风能储量有多少尚需进一步查明。detailedsurveyisinurgentneedtoobtainthepotentialinstalledcapacitywhichcouldberealutilizedeconomically.中国东部沿海水深在2m到15m之间的浅海海域面积辽阔，风能资源丰富，靠近主要用电负荷区域，初步估计10m高度约7.5亿kW，具有开发海上风电场的巨大潜力。AlongthecoastlineofeastChina,offshoreareawithwaterdepthbetween2mand15marehuge,wherewindspeedishigherthanonshore,theoffshorewindfarmsitesareclosetothemainelectricityloadcenter,withgreatpotentialforthedevelopmentofoffshorewindfarms,750GWhasbeenpreliminaryestimated.中国风能丰富的地区主要分布在西北、华北和东北的草原或戈壁，以及东部和东南沿海及岛屿。InChinaareasrichinwindenergyresourcearemainlyingrasslandorgobiofnorthwest,northandnortheastChina,aswellascoastalareaandislandsineastandsoutheastChina..资源的详查资源的详查资源的详查资源的详查Detailedsurveyofwindresource1996年美国国家再生能源实验室（NREL）利用新开发的计算机模型和世界各类测风数据库，结合地理信息系统（GIS）技术，完成了南澳岛的风能资源分布图。In1996theNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)ofUSA,completedawindmapofNan’aoIslandinChina,byusingnewlydevelopedcomputermodelandGeographicInformationSystem(GIS)technology.NREL继续与中国国家电力公司合作，对江西鄱阳湖地区和福建广东沿海进行风能资源模拟，采用现有数据初步绘出风能资源图。thecooperationbetweenNRELandStatePowerCorporationofChina(SP)continuedforwindmapping,inareasofPoyanghuLakeofJiangxiprovince,coastofFujianandGuangdongprovince.Preliminarymappinghasbeenmade.希望能够继续得到国际组织的资助，将此项工作的范围扩大到整个沿海陆地和岛屿，包括水深在2m到15m的浅海海域，以及东北三省和内蒙东部地区。Windmappingareexpectedtobesupportedbyinternationalorganizations,toexpandthescopetoallcoastalareas,includingonshoreofmainlandandislands,offshoreofshallowseawithwaterdepthbetween2mand15m,aswellasthreeprovincesofnortheastChinaandeastpartofInnerMongolia.风电场发展的规划设想风电场发展的规划设想风电场发展的规划设想风电场发展的规划设想Estimationofwindpowerdevelopmentinthebeginningof21stcentury风电装机容量从1994年底的2.9万kW增长到1999年底26万多kW，预计2000年底实际可达约40万kW。Theinstalledcapacityofwindpowerincreasedfrom29MWin1994to260MWin1999,itisestimatedthatmaybe400MWbytheendof2000.中国风电装机容量Installedcapacityofwindpower(MW)0000505050501001001001001501501501502002002002002502502502503003003003001990199019901990199319931993199319951995199519951996199619961996199719971997199719981998199819981999199919991999可以落实资金的项目到2000年底已达96万kW，影响风电发展的因素主要不是资金短缺。只有环境保护的压力进一步加大，才能促使激励政策出台，使风电进入大规模发展的时期。Windprojectswithavailablefundsbytheendof2000are960MW,lackoffundsseemsnotthemainbarrierofthewindpowerdevelopment.Onlywhentheenvironmentpressuregettinghigherandfurthermoreincentivepolicyareformulated,windpowerwillbedevelopedinlargescale.优先发展风电的地方应当是风能资源好、火电排放污染比较大、经济较发达、电价承受能力强的地区，如东南沿海的浙江、福建和广东等省。Windpowerdevelopmentshouldbetakenaspriorityinthoseplaceswithgoodwindresource,highemissionofGHGbycoalfiredpowerplant,welldevelopedeconomyandaffordabletohigherpriceofrenewableenergy,suchlikeGuangdong,FujianandZhejiangprovince.在2001年到2005年期间，应加强东北三省、内蒙东部、河北北部及整个沿海陆地岛屿的风能资源详查，找出能够建设400万kW风电场的场址。During2001to2005,detailedsurveyofwindenergyresourceshouldbeimplementedinthreeprovinceofnortheastChina,eastpartofInnerMongolia,northpartofHebeiandallcoastareasincludingislands,tofindwindfarmsitesavailabletobuild4000MWwindfarms.开始对岸外海上风能资源进行普查，找到可以建设示范海上风电场的场址。startingwindresourceassessmentonoffshoreshallowseaarea,tofindseveralpotentialsitesfordemonstrationoffshorewindfarms.按当前实施的政策预计2005年风电装机可达150万kW。Basedonthecurrentpolicyitisestimatedthat1500MWofwindturbinescouldbeinstalledby2005.如果减排温室气体的环境保护压力加大，国家出台全社会分摊风电价差的政策，2005年装机有可能完成300万kW。IfthepressureofenvironmentprotectiononmitigationofGHGemissiongettinghigher,andtheincentivepolicyofsharingpricedifferenceofwindpowerbyallusersofpowergridnationwidecouldbeformulatedbygovernmentorlegislative,3000MWofwindinstallationsmaybepossibleby2005.从2006年到2010年，国内制造的整机和零部件成本较低，在新增容量中要占70%，累积总装机约300万kW到500万kW。这期间应开始建立示范海上风电场。From2006to2010,duetolowercostofdomesticmadeturbinesandcomponents,amongthenewinstalledcapacity70%ofturbinesshouldbelocalmanufactured,andcumulativeto3000MWto5000MW.Duringthisperiodademonstrationoffshorewindfarmshouldbebuilt.2011年到2015年，火电成本上升缩小了与风电的价差，有利于风电的商业开发，累积装机约在500万kW到700万kW，海上风电场也将进入规模发展阶段。From2011to2015,alongwithcostofcoalfiredpowerincrease,reducingthedifferencetowind,beneficialtothecommercialdevelopmentofwindpower,cumulatedinstalledcapacitywillbe5000MWto7000MW.Offshorewindfarmwillalsogetintothephaseoflargescaledevelopment.风电发展规划设想ESTIMATESOFWINDPOWERDEVELOPMENT000010001000100010002000200020002000300030003000300040004000400040005000500050005000600060006000600070007000700070002000200020002000200520052005200520102010201020102015201520152015当前政策当前政策当前政策当前政策CurrentCurrentCurrentCurrentpolicypolicypolicypolicy环保激励环保激励