企业跨国并购的财务风险分析及防范策略

1长春工业大学自学考试毕业论文企业跨国并购的财务风险分析及防范策略报考专业:工商管理准考证号:291512200021姓名:刘冬雪指导教师:董媛2013年8月20日1213摘要跨国并购隐藏着各种各样风险。其中，财务风险是各种并购风险在价值量上的综合反映，是企业并购成功与否的重要影响因素。跨国并购的财务风险是企业由于并购而涉及的各项财务活动引起的企业财务状况恶化或财务损失的不确定性。企业跨国并购面临更加复杂的经营环境，跨国并购的财务风险比国内并购要大。跨国并购的四种财务风险的特点，来源和形成阶段各不相同，具体表现在以下几个方面：目标价值评估风险主要来源于并购前对于目标企业的价值评估失败而引起的；融资风险是企业并购过程中筹集并购费用没有恰当选择筹资方式和筹资结构不合理引起的；支付风险是企业在并购中选择支付方式不当造成的；杠杆并购的偿债风险是并购前对自身评估不足，企业负债比例过高，以致经营过程中不足以支付债务本金和利息而引起的。解决各种财务风险类型的防范策略主要有：目标价值评估风险要做好并购前的识别和有效管理;对于融资风险，企业要选择恰当的融资方式，科学运用“优先排序”理论，使企业综合资本结构最优化;对于支付风险，企业要严格编制资金预算，恰当选择各种支付方式特别是对混合支付方式的运用，合理安排支付时间;对于LBO并购的偿债风险，企业要根据企业自身的实际特点，调整企业的资本结构，选择企业可以承受的融资方案。企业跨国并购的未来发展趋势是并购越来越倾向于战略并购。关键词:跨国并购；财务风险；风险分析；风险防范4ABSTRACTTransnationalM&Aincludesvariouskindsofventures.Amongthem,thefinancialrisk,whichmanifestlyreflectsallsortsofM&Ariskwithregardtomagnitudeofvalues,isamostimportantfactorintheprocessofMergersandAcquisitions.FinancialrisksofTransnationalM&Aisduetothefinancialactivitiesoftheenterprisecausedbythedeterioratingfinancialpositionorfinanciallossuncertainty.Transnationalmergersandacquisitionsfacemorecomplexbusinessenvironment,cross-bordermergersandacquisitionsoffinancialrisktobelargerthandomesticmergersandacquisitions.TransnationalM&Ahavefourdifferentcharacteristics,bothfromtheperspectivesofsourcesandformation,whichrepresentspecificallyinthefollowingareas:TargetValueEvaluationriskcomesmainlyfromthepre-mergervaluationforthetargetcompany'sfailurecaused;financingriskistheenterpriseM&Acostswerenotraisedduringtheappropriatechoiceoffinancingandfundingstructurecausedbytheirrational;paymentrisksinthemergerofenterpriseschoosepaymentmethodimproper;leveragedbuy-outsofdebtriskassessmentisinadequateontheirownbeforethemerger,corporatedebtratiotoohigh,resultinginthecourseofbusinessisinsufficienttopaydebtprincipalandinterestandcause.Tosolvevarioustypesoffinancialrisk,preventionstrategiesmainlyinclude:TargetValueassessriskstodothepre-mergeridentificationandeffectivemanagement;Forfinancingrisks,enterprisesshouldchoosetheappropriatewayoffinancingthescientificuseofprioritizationtheory,theintegratedenterprisecapitalstructureoptimization;forpaymentrisk,enterprisesshouldstrictlycapitalbudgetpreparation,properchoiceofavarietyofpaymentmethodsespeciallyfortheuseof5mixedpayment,arrangeforpaymentofreasonabletime;mergersandacquisitionsforLBOdebtrisk,accordingtothecompany'sowncorporateactualcharacteristics,adjustthecapitalstructure,selectthecompaniescanaffordfinancingoptions.AfuturetrendoftransnationalM&Aisthetendencyofstrategicmergersandacquisitions.Keywords:TransnationalM&A；FinancialRisk；RiskAnalysis；RisksPrevention6目录前言.....................................................7第一章企业跨国并购的风险概述.............................81.1企业跨国并购的现状.............................................81.2企业跨国并购的风险类型.........................................81.2.1跨国并购中的系统风险.......................................81.2.2跨国并购中的非系统风险.....................................9第二章企业跨国并购的财务风险分析.......................112.1目标企业价值评估风险分析......................................112.1.1并购双方之间信息不对称...................................112.1.2企业价值评估方法不恰当，评估体系不健全...................112.1.3企业忽视中介组织的作用和利用不当..........................112.2融资风险分析..................................................122.2.1企业的经营状况............................................122.2.2企业的资本结构............................................122.2.3汇率的变动................................................122.3支付风险分析..................................................122.3.1现金支付..................................................132.3.2股票交换..................................................132.3.3债券支付..................................................132.3.4综合证券支付..............................................132.4杠杆收购的偿债风险分析........................................132.4.1收购时机和收购策略的运用带来的风险.......................142.4.2高息风险债券带来的风险....................................142.4.3收购资金中过高的负债比例带来的风险.......................14第三章企业跨国并购的财务风险的防范策略.................153.1目标企业价值评估风险的防范策略................................153.1.1目标企业价值评估风险的识别................................163.1.2企业对目标价值评估风险的管理..............................173.2融资风险的防范策略............................................173.2.1各种融资方式进行成本分析..................................183.2.2并购融资方式选择过程......................................1873.2.3融资结构规划..............................................183.3支付风险的防范................................................193.3.1严格制定并购资金需要量及支出预算..........................193.3.2改进支付方式，降低支付风险................................193.4杠杆并购的偿债风险的防范策略..................................203.4.1正确选择目标企业..........................................213.4.2科学评估目标企业价值......................................213.4.3调整并购方资本结构........................................213.4.4合理设计筹资方案..........................................21第四章企业跨国并购的展望.................................22结语.....................................错误!未定义书签。参考文献.................................................238前言21世纪以来，随着中国企业“走出去”战略的实施，跨国并购再次成为社会的一大热点。中国企业已经开始到全球众多发达国家和发展中国家寻求并购目标，而且目光也不再局限于当地中小企业。中海油、海尔集团、华为，联